As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

While this past week was the calm before the storm, the first showers are about to fall before the deluge of precursors in the subsequent three weeks. However, this week features one of the most important prizes anyone is looking forward to this season. The DGA will either push forward The Big Short juggernaut, give the slow and steady climb of Spotlight a boost, or anoint another film the victor and possibly set up the most suspenseful Best Picture race in some years.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 11

Tue. 02 – Visual Effects Society (Awards) (Official)
Sat. 06 – Annie Awards (Awards) (Official)
Sat. 06 – Directors Guild (Awards) (Official)
Mon. 08 – Nominees Lunch (Oscars) (Official)

Big Winners

Spotlight has been struggling in recent weeks. With few guild groups able to recognize the film, it’s seen its star fade. With high profile losses at the Golden Globes and the Producers Guild Awards, it seemed like it might be going from most honored film with critics to also-ran at the Oscars. Then the Screen Actors Guild came along and gave it their award for Best Cast. While it’s not always the best precursor for Best Picture, a victory for Spolight over The Big Short gives it a boost. The next big trial for the film is BAFTA where a victory would push it back into frontrunner status.
The Big Short is still the frontrunner for Best Picture and its Best Film Editing win gives it some credence. While it still has a long road to climb to get there, the Best Film Editing award is sometimes analogous to Best Picture, which will give it a boost.
Mad Max: Fury Road has picked up two more major trophies (and a third if you could the SAG Stunt Ensemble victory). With wins at the Art Directors Guild and American Cinema Editors, it’s well on its way to claiming trophies at all of the tech guild awards, which might give it a leg up at the Oscars. George Miller could also win DGA, which would definitely give the film a boost.
Leonardo DiCaprio & Brie Larson took the Screen Actors Guild prizes for Best Actor and Best Actress respectively. While both have been leading the competition for awhile now, the SAG victories solidify them as the undisputed frontrunners.
Alicia Vikander & Idris Elba received boosts from the Screen Actors Guild, but for two different reasons. For Vikander, the victory gives her credence as a Best Supporting Actress frontrunner at the Oscars. While it isn’t a done deal yet, the win gives her momentum going into BAFTA where a victory would mean solid support for her work (even if BAFTA nominated her in lead and in support for Ex Machina. Elba, on the other hand, won his SAG Best Supporting Actor trophy, which gives a boost to the idea that he was unfairly snubbed at the Oscars. It also gives him an edge at BAFTA where his competition needs to solidify support. His victory is a win against the rubber-stamping status quo of most recent acting competitions.

Big Losers

The Revenant didn’t have a great week. While it won Best Dramatic Picture from the Golden Globes, it still lost the PGA and subsequently the Best Dramatic Film Editing prize from the American Cinema Editors. It did pick up a Best Art Direction trophy from the Art Directors Guild, which shows it’s still well liked, but it’s hard to see the film as a juggernaut at this point and that feeling is almost crucial for it to make a play for Best Picture.
Mark Rylance desperately needed the SAG award for Best Supporting Actor. Without Sylvester Stallone in the race, it was his chance to shine and gain some added publicity towards an upset victory at the Oscars. Unfortunately, SAG went elsewhere, a non-nominee to boot, which means Rylance has only one more opportunity to seal the deal and if he can’t, we’re looking at almost certain sign that Stallone takes the Oscar.