As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

There’s only one major group left to give out prizes and I’m not talking about the uncharacteristic Writers Guild of America. The British Academy of Film & Television Arts (BAFTA) will be announcing its winners next weekend, which means we might have a few prominent Oscar races settled. The Writers Guild also hands out prizes next weekend as do the Satellite Awards and the Online Film & Television Association.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 12

Fri. 12 – Academy Awards Voting Begins (Oscars) (Official)
Sat. 13 – Sci-Tech Awards (Oscars) (Official)
Sat. 13 – Writers Guild (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 14 – British Academy (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 14 – Cinematographers (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 14 – Online Film & TV Association (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 14 – Satellites (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 15 – Grammy Awards (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

The Revenant hadn’t been having a great time in recent weeks, but with one single award, it’s emerged as a key Oscar competitor in a category other than Best Actor. For awhile, Leonardo DiCaprio was the only sure thing the film had going into the Oscars. With many of the prominent precursors split between various films, The Revenant‘s historic win at the Directors Guild of America (Alejandro G. Inarritu became the first director in history to win back-to-back DGA awards) should provide just enough impetus to push him towards the Best Director podium. He’ll join legends John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz as the only directors to win back-to-back Best Director Oscars. It’s still not a done deal, but the DGA is one of the most reliable precursors out there. However, this is not a guarantee of a win for Best Picture. The competition there is fierce. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) was an unlikely winner for Best Director anywhere this season, but his film is still quite strong, showing its strength at SAG recently. Now, we wait for the BAFTA’s to tell us something more.
Inside Out has been the winner all season, but its ten wins at the Annie Awards dispels all doubts that it’s going to win the Best Animated Feature Oscar. Anomalisa went home empty-handed and the only films Inside Out lost to all night were itself (in categories where it had two nominations) and The Good Dinosaur.
World of Tomorrow may be a rather unusual choice for an Oscar winner for Best Animated Feature, but winning the award at the Annie Awards might have given it a slight boost. The fascinating short competes against Sanjay’s Super Team in most minds for the victory and that film could certainly win, but a win for Don Hertzfeldt might just be in the cards after all.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens triumphed over all others at the Visual Effects Society Awards where its primary competition was Mad Max: Fury Road. Both films relied heavily on practical effects, using CGI sparingly. Some thought Mad Max: Fury Road might still be a stronger Best Visual Effects competitor since it was a Best Picture nominee. However, after the Visual Effects Society gave out a majority of awards to Star Wars, it would now be considered the frontrunner.

Big Losers

Mad Max: Fury Road had a very bad week. First it wins only a single, inconsequential award at the Visual Effects Society, then its director, George Miller, loses at the DGA. There has been some chatter that Miller’s compelling style and attention to detail would lead him to victory at the DGA and then at the Oscars, but it wasn’t to be. Mad Max: Fury Road has been fading the last few weeks, largely because the film seems to be popular with critics, but not as much so with the industry. Sure, it’s won all the guild tech prizes for which it’s been nominated so far, but that might not be enough to give it a boost towards the Oscars. The film lacks both an acting nomination and a writing nomination, which doesn’t give it much of a boost at the Oscars. It could still eke out a Best Director victory, but Miller isn’t campaigning very hard at all and Inarritu has been all over the circuit with the help of DiCaprio. The pairing could prove potent with Oscar voters and Mad Max: Fury Road losing all of its prominent nominations will quietly doom it to a tech-category behemoth without upper-level support.