As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

The calm before the storm. While the last couple of weeks have seen a small, but important flurry of activity, we’re about to drown in precursor awards over the next couple of weeks. This coming week alone, there are 17 groups announcing nominations or awards. Prior to those, the last week has seen the three grandparents of the precursor game, the National Board of Review, New York Film Critics Circle, and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. They have set the tone for this year’s awards by going both in similar and different directions.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 3

Wed. 06 – Broadcast Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Wed. 06 – DC Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Thu. 07 – American Film Institute (Awards) (Official)
Fri. 08 – San Diego Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Fri. 08 – San Francisco Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Fri. 08 – DC Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sat. 09 – Boston Online Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 10 – Chicago Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Sun. 10 – Boston Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 10 – San Francisco Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 10 – Toronto Critics (Awards) (Official)
Mon. 11 – Golden Globes (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 11 – Seattle Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Mon. 11 – St. Louis Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 11 – NY Online Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 11 – Philadelphia Critics (Awards) (Official)
Mon. 11 – San Diego Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

Big Winners

Call Me By Your Name has once again been a dominant force this past week with Timothée Chalamet making a much stronger showing than expected.
Lady Bird has been ever-present in these early awards earning numerous prizes, especially for Laurie Metcalf, but also for star Saoirse Ronan and director Greta Gerwig (getting recognized everywhere but Best Director, surprisingly).
The Post was screened only recently, but 20th Century Fox has been pushing hard to get it seen and recognized. With its win at the National Board of Review for Best Picture, it easily enters the race, as do Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks, both earning surprise victories from the same group.
The Shape of Water hasn’t quite dominated as we might have expected, but it has done quite well, especially bouncing back with the Los Angeles Film Critics Association awards.

Big Losers

Blade Runner 2049 was a smash with critics, but has been shockingly absent from the precursor awards. Even the one area many thought it would dominate, Cinematography, hasn’t been dominated. It got some recognition from L.A., but not enough.
Gary Oldman was thought to be the primary contender for this year’s Oscars, but he’s been utterly absent from the proceedings, picking up nary an award. He still has tiem to ramp up, but things aren’t looking good initially.