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As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

A very busy week has preceded this report and there were lots of things to note. However, while the last of the critics groups are trickling in, it’s now the time for the guild awards to shine. This past week alone, four gave out nominations, including the important Producers Guild and Writers Guild. While the upcoming Directors Guild is probably the most important, these two groups give us an idea of what Oscar voters might be considering and may be our last glimpses into the minds of Oscar voters before the nominations are announced.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 8

Tue. 09 – British Academy (Nominations) (Official)
Tue. 09 – Toronto Critics – Canadian Film (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Tue. 09 – Vancouver Critics – Canadian Awards (Awards) (Official)
Wed. 10 – Audio Society (Nominations) (Official)
Wed. 10 – Cinematographers (Nominations) (Official)
Wed. 10 – Costume Designers (Nominations) (Official)
Wed. 10 – Directors Guild – Documentary (Nominations) (Official)
Thu. 11 – Directors Guild – Director & First Feature (Nominations) (Official)
Thu. 11 – Broadcast Critics (Awards) (Official)
Fri. 12 – Academy Awards Voting Ends (Oscars) (Official)
Fri. 12 – Georgia Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

Big Winners


Lady Bird has not only been nabbing all the necessary precursors so far, but it has been making a solid run of the late-breaking critics awards picking up the prestigious National Society of Film Critics award as well as the award from the Houston critics. With Producers Guild, Writers Guild, and even Art Directors Guild nominations, the film certainly has cemented itself in the Oscar race. This, along with the double win at the Golden Globes gives it plenty of visibility heading into Oscar season.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri really pulled out a major set of victories at the Golden Globes taking four prizes, including for screenwriting, two acting awards, and the big award of the night Best Drama. The film has quietly been amassing awards all season and this could be a good sign for the film’s Oscar prospects.
Get Out continues to chug right along, picking up all of the same guild awards as Lady Bird and then winning Best Picture from the Online, North Carolina, and Oklahoma critics. Further, it came in a close second to Lady Bird at the Nation Society awards, coming within one or two points of victory. That means it’s the other major player this year. It went home empty-handed at the Globes, that they were already said to be hostile to the film.
I, Tonya entered the season as one of those films that critics love, but that struggle with Oscar voters. Apart from Allison Janney in Supporting Actress, the stray citation didn’t really signify much. Then it earned nominations from the Make-Up Artists Guild, as well as the more important Writers Guild and Producers Guild. Those nominations give it a higher profile during Oscar nomination voting, which could certainly help. Janney also picked up a Golden Globe for her work on this film, which upends the Best Supporting Actress narrative.
Logan may have missed the Producers Guild nominations, but it picked up the Writers Guild nomination as well as one from the Art Directors Guild. It’s a film that probably won’t sell well with Oscar, but has picked up enough nominations this season to at least be a contender, albeit a minor one.

Big Losers

Phantom Thread may have done well with the National Society of Film Critics coming in second or third in a number of races, it stumbled tremendously with the guilds. The Art Directors Guild might be a minor snub, but considering its period setting, it really should have been in competition there. Being ignored by the Make-Up Artists Guild isn’t that damaging, but failing to earn a Writers Guild nomination, in a field that was already reduced for eligibility reasons, seems rather damning. Then it suffered its biggest setback yet and failed to earn a Producers Guild nomination. That makes five guild awards the film has been ignored at and there aren’t too many left for it to make an impression. While it’s certainly possible that it comes on strong with Oscar voters, even The Master managed a Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild citation. This does not bode well for the film outside of Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance.
The Florida Project had a similarly bad week. While it wasn’t likely to get Make-Up or Art Directors nominations, the indie darling was supposed to get both a Producers Guild and Writers Guild nomination, but showed up at neither. It’s unlikely now to appear in any of the other guild derbies, which means its single Screen Actors Guild nomination will be the only guild nomination it gets and that means its Oscar chances are rather weakened. It took a further hit at the Golden Globes where its lone nominee, Willem Dafoe, lost the award for Best Supporting Actor, which hurts his overall chances at the Oscars.
The Post started off well picking up a very much not guaranteed Art Direction nomination, but then was shockingly ignored by the Writers Guild in spite of the fewer films competing there. It did manage a slight comeback at the Producers Guild making the list of Best Picture finalists, but its fortunes are certainly diminished. The last chance the film really has of bolstering its credentials comes with the Directors Guild nominations, where Spielberg could be the only non-first-time director on the list. It also didn’t manage to win anything at the Golden Globes, but it was facing a lot of stiff competition, so that is not the least bit surprising.
The Greatest Showman suffered initially with bad reviews, but was reprieved with its solid nomination tally at the Golden Globes. The guilds, however, haven’t been kind. The Art Directors Guild should have fallen all over the film’s period design, but they completely ignored it. Writers Guild was never in the cards as most critics cited the sanitized screenplay as one of its biggest faults. It had a brief reprieve from the Make-Up Artists who recognized its character makeup, but the hair styling and special effects categories were out of reach. The Producers Guild weren’t likely to recognize the film, so its chances have become virtually nil, including in categories that early in the year seemed like they might be easy wins. The film hasn’t lost all hope as one of its songs should still make the nominations list at the Oscars, but other categories including Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound Mixing may be tougher sells.

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