As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

There was a lot of activity this week, mostly from the guilds, which puts a lot into perspective. We have one more week of precursors before the Oscar nominations on the 23rd. The PGA and SAG awards will be given out in the next week, but the remaining guilds to announce nominations are for tech categories. They include the Visual Effects Society this week and the Motion Picture Sound Editors on Monday. Then that’s it. There’s also the USC Scripter nominations this week, which are a fairly strong predictor of Best Adapted Screenplay, but otherwise there aren’t a lot of things left.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 9

Mon. 15 – USC Scripter (Nominations) (Official)
Mon. 15 – Denver Critics (Awards) (Official)
Tue. 16 – Visual Effects Society (Nominations) (Official)
Sat. 20 – Producers Guild (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 21 – Online Film & TV Association (Nominations) (Official)
Sun. 21 – Screen Actors (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

I, Tonya has been on the radar for some time, but it is now putting up a surprisingly late surge, picking up nominations from the Costume Designers Guild, the Producers Guild, and the Make-Up Artists Guild. It has also seen supporting actress Allison Janney surge late in the competition, picking up numerous prizes, including from the two televised awards shows so far. If she wins the Screen Actors Guild award, which is a distinct possibility, she would become the frontrunner while early frontrunner Laurie Metcalf falls back.
The Shape of Water has continued to chug on through Oscar season, picking up all the necessary precursor awards, even winning at the Broadcast Critics awards and taking the Golden Globe for Best Director. The only person not benefiting from their continued support is star Sally Hawkins, no stranger to being unfairly forgotten by Oscar voters, who has yet to win a major upset prize.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four Golden Globes, including one for Best Picture. It continued this past week by pulling in several other prominent awards with Sam Rockwell now capturing both televised awards and leaving Willem Dafoe in the dust.
Gary Oldman was thought to be fading thanks to his precursor run up to the Golden Globe where he was facing some stiff competition from Timothée Chalamet. However, after the Globes, he also picked up the Broadcast Critics award and continues pulling in awards along the way giving him plenty of boost into the Screen Actors Guild where a win is seeming likely.

Big Losers

The Post has missed out on a lot this season and the latest failure to place at the Directors Guild diminishes its Oscar potential. The film will still probably pick up a few nominations, but it’s no longer a major Oscar player in terms of potential wins.
Get Out is still winning plenty of prizes, but the near shut-out in the British Academy’s nominations and the failure to win a single Golden Globe suggests the film’s strengths are a bit weak. The only silver lining is that BAFTA may just not appreciate the film’s sensibilities since they are almost distinctly American. The DGA nomination was a good sign, though.
Lady Bird also had a bad run at the precursors. Although it won heavily at the Globes, it has missed several other awards, most notably its anemic nomination count at BAFTA. Greta Gerwig earning a DGA citation is a positive development, but the film is feeling a bit weak now, especially that it lost so much at the Broadcast Critics, including the Comedy Picture award.
The Florida Project is the critic’s darling that everyone thought was having a great Oscar run, but has since petered out. It has missed every single guild citation to date, which is definitely a bad thing. That Willem Dafoe has lost all of the televised prizes and is losing ground to Sam Rockwell with each passing day, it appears the film isn’t as solidly competing for Best Picture as some think.