As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

The final week before the Oscar nominations and before we shift in earnest into the business of predicting the Oscars. Everything to now informs how we think the nominations will go. Hereafter, every new reveal will speak to what could possibly win, so here goes the last week of updates before the nominations.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 10

Mon. 22 – Razzies (Nominations) (Official)
Mon. 22 – Sound Editors (Nominations) (Official)
Tue. 23 – Academy Awards (Oscars) (Official)
Fri. 26 – Cinema Editors (Awards) (Official)
Sat. 27 – Art Directors (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 28 – Grammy Awards (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 28 – London Critics (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri managed a triple win at the Screen Actors Guild awards last night, solidifying Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell as the frontrunners for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor. Meanwhile, the film itself continues its strong play towards the Oscars, with wins that could bolster it towards a Best Picture victory.
The Shape of Water, however, has been working hard to prevent that. With its win over Three Billboards at the Producers Guild of America the night before, and its certain double-digit nomination haul tomorrow morning with the Oscars, the film has to be considered a favorite for a Best Picture run. If director Guillermo del Toro also wins the DGA prize, then Best Picture could be a near certainty, unless the preferential balloting helps a different film.
Blade Runner 2049 tied War for the Planet of the Apes for most nominations from the Visual Effects Society, but it, and nt Apes seems better poised to parlay its heft guild haul into a sizable nomination count at the Academy. While a number of categories are probably still in flux enough to result in a low-end tally, VES’s support will certainly guarantee at least one of its nominations in Visual Effects.

Big Losers

Lady Bird came into the season a heavy favorite for serious Oscar consideration. Laurie Metcalf was running away with precursors and the film was picking up several citations, including for director Gerwig and the film itself. Yet, the televised awards have largely been hostile to the film and its shut-out at both SAG and PGA suggest the film is probably going to get several nominations, but not many wins. What’s worse is that Metcalf has shifted from frontrunner to second place in less than a month.
Get Out desperately needed either the SAG or PGA awards to support its flagging candidacy for Best Picture, but the film has taken hit after hit. While it’s sure to be earn several nominations, its only hope at victory now is likely Best Original Screenplay, and even that is in doubt with the surge of Three Billboards.
Dunkirk has picked up all the precursor nominations it needs, but has come up short on awards, losing just about ever battle its waged with a small handful of exceptions. While the movie is likely to earn a number of nominations, the weakend support means it may not be able to win many at all now, definitely not any of the major awards that everyone thought possible when it was released.