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We had three films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Florence Foster Jenkins

The Oscars are a funny sport, some actors can deliver weak and inconsequential performances and get nominated while others deliver a series of strong performances only to get a nomination years later for something pointless. Some will get nominated for the only good role they’ve ever had. Then there’s Meryl Streep, a class all unto her own and someone who has managed to, in some ways accomplish each of these three tasks.

Florence Foster Jenkins isn’t going to be a box office darling. Critics weren’t that impressed with it, but they all agree that the cast is enjoying themselves and, for Streep, that may be all she needs to get an Oscar nomination. At this point, it’s de rigeur adding her to your predictions list, the question is trying to figure out what she’ll get nominated for and what she won’t. The only thing you can say for sure this year is that if she is nominated, she won’t win.

For films like Music from the Heart, Streep seems to coast to nominations on mediocre works, matter of fact it’s been a long time since she was in an outright masterpiece. Florence Foster Jenkins seems to be another frivolous performance that is likely to push her into contention, the problem is the film’s dire box office potential isn’t going to do her any favors. A Golden Globe nomination, and possibly even a win for this film is almost assured, but ultimately her Oscar chances depend on her competition and if it’s a lightly populated Best Actress slate, she could very well get in.

Pete’s Dragon

When the trailers released for this film, it seemed like Disney’s live-action adaptations of its prior animated (in this case part-animated) films was going to flail. Pete’s Dragon has managed to surprise everyone and has become one of the best reviewed films of the year. That alone will help position it for Oscar consideration.

Like the year’s other major live-action adaptation The Jungle Book, Pete’s Dragon‘s chances seem isolated to the creative categories. Since this is modern-set, Production Design and Costume Design are unlikely, as is Makeup & Hairstyling. That leaves Best Original Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing, and Best Visual Effects.

Ultimately, as well received as the film has been, its opening weekend at the box office wasn’t very impressive, meaning people won’t remember it long. That doesn’t matter to the creative types, though, but all things considered, I’m hard-pressed to find where the film could actively compete. There is so much hefty competition this year that a family drama, even a well-received one, isn’t a likely to triumph.

Hell or High Water

One of the best reviewed indie dramas of the year finds Chris Pine, Ben Foster, and Jeff Bridges starring in a film about two sons robbing banks to pay off a bank debt held by their father. Bridges plays the sheriff attempting to catch them and bring them to justice.

The concept is a very old one, but with reviews like these, there has to be some measure of potential to its Oscar chances. The Academy doesn’t often recognize films released in August for their awards, not even indie dramas. They could very easily forget the film before its actual release.

Until then, let’s talk about the potential. Chris Pine hasn’t had the best track record, but it’s possible he could earn a Best Actor citation for his performance. Studios tend not to want to put co-leads into the same category, so Ben Foster will be pushed to support where he’ll fight against Bridges, who has a better shot than he of getting nominated. That’s a shame since Foster is such a strong actor with plenty of solid performances behind him.

With the reviews its had, Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay are all possibilities, and with Best Picture comes a Best Film Editing chance, though a slim one for something that looks so conventionally edited. Beyond that, the modern setting and the lack of dense tech elements should keep its chances confined to the upper decks. I suspect that Bridges may ultimately be the only one earning a nod here, though Pine could merit a Golden Globe nominations if those voters don’t have enough people to select.

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