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We had two films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

The Shape of Water

In 2006, director Guillermo del Toro presented to the world a dark fairy tale called Pan’s Labyrinth. Although he had had success with critics and audience before that, this became the film that fully launched him into the upper echelons of filmmakers. It received six Oscar nominations, winning three of them. He had made Hellboy two years earlier, but two years after Pan’s Labyrinth, he did a sequel called Hellboy II: The Golden Army. This became his second film to score an Oscar nomination.

His subsequent film, made released five years later, was ultimately thought to be an Oscar contender. Pacific Rim had all the makings of a Best Visual Effects nominee and the British Academy did cite it, making it seem like a foregone conclusion. However, the Oscars didn’t jump on it. The film had been a box office hit, but wasn’t exactly igniting the box office. He followed that film up with Crimson Peak, an atmospheric fantasy horror starring Jessica Chastain and Tom Hiddleston. On paper, it seemed like another surefire Oscar contender, at least in the tech categories, but the reviews weren’t great and the box office was anemic. The Academy also ignored it.

Here we are two years down the road and del Toro is once again on the forefront of the Oscar competition. This time, it looks like he’ll buck his downward trend. The Shape of Water has gotten strong reviews so far and has picked up a smattering of precursor attention so far. The more accessible drama of the film should give it a boost with Oscar voters who love prestige films that have lots of strong design elements. While the film is no slam dunk nominee for Best Director, Best Picture seems likely as do nominations in all of the creative categories as well as Best Actress for star Sally Hawkins. How many the film wins is hard to say as the competition is fierce, but a major Oscar contender it certainly is.

Wonder Wheel

There was a time in the 1980s and 1990s when everything Woody Allen touched turned to gold. The most nominated screenwriter in Oscar history, Allen’s films began taking a slide in quality in the early ’00s and an unsteady track record emerged from that point forward.

One of the mitigating factors might have been the emergence of several other independent names making movies about life in New York City. Allen had begun to abandon the Big Apple and took a tour of Europe with a number of his films. While there were critical successes along the way like Match Point and Midnight in Paris, there were several duds. As a result, his Oscar presence has been muted. 1999’s Sweet and Lowdown was the last film in a string of successful projects. He had some duds, but not many. For Oscar voters, it was the last time for 9 years they would recognize him.

Vicky Cristina Barcelona was the first to break his streak, but another three years to Midnight in Paris arrived without a single recognition. Two years later, he did wonders with Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, but faded again for the next several years. Wonder Wheel is his latest attempt to stop his downward decline and early buzz about the film suggested star Kate Winslet was sure to be a nominee. However, after the film was seen, those predictions came to a halt as the film began sounding like second-tier Woody Allen and the climate of sexual harassment and assault claims has shone new light on Allen’s checkered and heavily debated past.

That shouldn’t stop Winslet from remaining a contender, but the Best Actress is one of the strongest in decades and I can see a reason that without a steamroll like Blanchett had for Blue Jasmine, Winslet will need a bit of luck and more than a few nominations and awards through precursor season to put her in the race. At this point, though, I suspect that’s not going to happen and the film will ultimately fade into obscurity.

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