We had four films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Downsizing

Alexander Payne has a tremendous history with the Oscars, but his latest film might just be his least recognized yet.

Payne has made 7 movies as of Downsizing. His first, Citizen Ruth in 1996, was well reviewed and performed decently on the festival circuit. However, it was his second movie in 1999 that really set him on track for regular recognition. Election received an Oscar nomination for screenwriting along with several other non-Oscar awards. 3 years later, he was back at it with About Schmidt, which scored two Oscar nominations for lead Jack Nicholson and support Kathy Bates. Sideways in 2004 was huge, winning dozens of awards from critics and pulling in five Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, supporting actors Thomas Haden Church and Virginia Madsen, as well as directing for Payne and screenplay, which he and co-writer Jim Taylor won.

It took seven years for Payne to make another feature-length movie and he was once again recognized for it picking up another five nominations in Best Picture, Directing, screenwriting, Film Editing, and Best Actor for George Clooney. It won for Best Adapted Screenplay, his second award in the category. That was followed in 2013 by Nebraska, a black-and-white film that played well with critics, but many thought would be under-represented at the Oscar. Instead, it was Payne’s best Oscar performance to date with six nominations for Best Picture, Directing, Actor for Bruce Dern, Supporting Actress for June Squibb, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Cinematography. It did not win.

That brings us to four years later and Downsizing was originally thought to be a major Oscar player, but indifference from critics has left the film struggling for recognition. So far, the film has been recognized a grand total of seven times. One was appearing on the National Board of Reviews Top 10 list for the year, five times supporting actress contender Hong Chau was nominated, including at the Golden Globes and the Screen actors Guild, and one nomination from the Satellite awards for Best Production Design. That’s not a terribly exciting array of nominations and citations. Right now, Chau seems to be the only one drawing sufficient buzz to secure a nomination. It would mark his fifth consecutive film with an acting citation.

Yet, there’s one category not given enough attention: Best Original Screenplay. The slate is overfull, which is Payne’s only problem. He has managed a writing nomination for all but two of his films. The inventive idea behind Downsizing might be enough to lift it above the more conventional screenplays on the slate this year, but it won’t be an easy nomination to get. It will definitely not result in a win.

The Greatest Showman

The composer and lyricist behind Best Picture almost-winner La La Land have put pen to sheet music and created the big musical picture of Christmas weekend, a tale about the legendary circus impresario P.T. Barnum. The film has received incredibly mixed reviews from critics, but has received strong notices from audiences, picking up an impressive A rating from CinemaScore and averaging 7.9 at IMDb. While the box office isn’t suggesting a major hit is in the offing, it’s clear the film has some popularity outside of critics circles.

The film has only managed four precursor citations so far, picking up a Golden Globe nomination for Best Musical or Comedy as well as a Globe nom for Hugh Jackman and the song “This Is Me,” which also picked up the song nomination from the Broadcast Critics. Globe voters tend to be more populist, but sometimes their appreciation for musicals is overstated.

The sumptuous musical struggled mightily thanks to a late release strategy that almost ignored critics and precursor groups, meaning few of them had seen it before voting. This could explain its absence from the Screen Actors Guild nominations where its large cast might have been appealing to SAG voters. Further, if the film starts picking up steam at the box office and Oscar voters ignore critics, the film could still play well with them.

The reason we cannot take a lot of what the critics say to heart is that they haven’t given it a lot of technical and creative citations. That’s where Oscar voters tend to push for films. The Production Design, Costume Design, and Sound Mixing categories are certainly in contention, While the aforementioned Original Song is also on the slate. Jackman is wildly popular and could sneak into the fluctutating Best Actor race and, if there’s enough love from the sound mixers, production designers, costume designers, and music makers could give it a boost and traditional old school Oscar voters might just boost it into the Best Picture race, though that likelihood seems highly unlikely.

The Post

Steven Spielberg’s History period has been well regarded and picked up more than its fare share of Oscar nominations. Spielberg has been an Oscar player since Jaws, so this should come as no surprise. The question isn’t whether the film will be nominated, it’s how many nominations it will receive.

Best Picture seems like a certainty, but the rest of the races are tight and could turn out poorly for those involved. Meryl Streep seems like the safest bet for her annual nomination. She’s in a tight competition with other actresses, but everything seems to be pointing to her recognition. Tom Hanks, on the other hand, may be playing well in the Best Actor race, but in a more fluid category, getting left off might be more likely than being included. That he couldn’t pick up a somewhat expected nomination for Bridge of Spies and hasn’t been nominated at the Oscars in 16 year, might be equal or opposite reasons for a nomination.

Spielberg is well regarded and if any major name could beat out potential first-time nominees like Guillermo del Toro, Christopher Nolan, Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele, and Martin McDonagh, it’s Spielberg. Further, an all first-timer slate is very unlikely, meaning one of those five names could get left off and Spielberg is the name most likely to take their place. The well-researched screenplay is definitely in contention, but there’s some question of whether it’s going to be pushed into adapted or original. Since it’s being campaigned in original, that’s where it should compete, though the Academy has invalidated campaign-suggested categories before.

Beyond those categories, the creative categories are where Spielberg is often bolstered or forgotten. The near-past setting of the film will likely keep it out of the Production Design and Costume Design categories. It’s low-key, non-action setting will mean it’s left out of Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. That leaves Original Score, Film Editing, and Cinematography. If it’s to be a Best Picture contender, Film Editing is a must. Cinematography seems like one of those categories that a surprise nomination could surface, but won’t likely. While the score isn’t the most impressive work John Williams has done, and he also has Star Wars: The Last Jedi on deck, it’s probably a strong contender there.