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We had two films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Transformers: The Last Knight

In 2007, Michael Bay brought the world the first in a series of movies based on the popular 1980’s cartoon series Transformers. His first film was a box office behemoth, which spawned the series entire. Bay then worked almost exclusively on the Transformers franchise, pausing only twice for the comedy heist film Pain & Gain and the conspiracy theory film 13 Hours, neither of which lit up the box office. Prior to Transformers, Bay had carved out a successful career of action thrillers like Bad Boys, The Rock, Armageddon, Pearl Harbor, Bad Boys II, and The Island. Before that, he worked as a music video director.

While his first film, Bad Boys, didn’t make any Oscar waves, his follow up, The Rock, earned a nomination for Sound. His third feature, Armageddon, did better securing four nominations for Best Original Song in addition to Sound again, Sound Effects Editing, and Visual Effects. These latter three categories would be his most common citations in nearly every film after. Bad Boys II and The Island were the only other pre-Transformers films that didn’t score Oscar nominations, all the rest did. With Pearl Harbor resulting in his first win for Best Sound Editing (one of the four nominations he received, matching the same categories as for Armageddon.

With Transformers, he again appeared in Sound, Sound Effects Editing, Visual Effects; however, his second film in the franchise only picked up one for Sound Mixing. He returned to all three with his third film in the series, but the fourth film was utterly ignored. Among his post Transformers opening, the two films he directed earned a single nomination among them with 13 Hours nominating in Sound Mixing, the only category he’s had all of his nominated films cited in.

Considering how his fourth Transformers film, set in the near-future, performed with the Oscars, it’s safe to say that the fifth film will follow the same path. If it does make inroads at the Oscars, it will only contend in one of the sound categories or Visual Effects and nowhere else. That his films have only ever one a single Oscar, don’t expect this film to win even if nominated.

The Beguiled

Daughter of celebrated Oscar-winning director Francis Ford Coppola, Sofia Coppola has successfully carved out her own niche as a director. Although she has had appearances in all three of her father’s Godfather films (the first two uncredited), her acting career spanned a brief period from 1983 through 2001 (not including those first two Godfather films as a baby). It was an undistinguished career.

In 1996, she stepped behind the camera for the first time, helming two short films before writing her own feature debut: 1999’s The Virgin Suicides. While the film wasn’t much of an Oscar player, she was well received, which led to her breakthrough directing effort Lost in Translation. Released in 2003 and starring Bill Murray and Scarlett Johansson, the film took critics by storm and landed four Oscar nominations including Best Director, and Oscar history’s third female directing credit (after Lina Wertmuller and Jane Campion). She won the Oscar for her screenplay.

Three years later, she wrote another film for the big screen starring Kirsten Dunst as titular Marie Antoinette. While the film didn’t receive the same rapturous reviews, Oscar voters still managed to cite the film for Best Costume Design, which it would win. Four years on, she gave us her fourth directorial effort, Somewhere, starring Stephen Dorff and Elle Fanning in one of each of their best performances. Critics weren’t utterly dismissive, but the film didn’t get enough boost from them and was ignored by Oscar. The Bling Ring followed in 2013 to lackluster reviews and more ignorance by Oscar.

Returning to form according to many critics, Sofia Coppola adapted a Clint Eastwood-starrer from more than 45 years ago, The Beguiled. Adapting the film with a modern viewpoint of the past and present, The Beguiled stars Oscar winner Nicole Kidman alongside Colin Farrell, Kirsten Dunst, and Elle Fanning. The film opened at the Cannes Film Festival, netting Coppola her the first Best Director prize of the season, her first ever at the festival.

Will this all translate into Oscar consideration? Possibly. The period drama may be a little too dark for the Academy’s tastes, but it will definitely be a competitor in the design categories, particular Production Design and Costume Design, possibly winning either or both. Top tier categories might be harder to gauge as the film has released too early in the year and some critics are dismissive. Still, a screenwriting nomination is distinctly possible and, barring a better female director coming along by year’s end, the current political climate might give her candidacy a boost. While she would likely deserve the nomination on merit, there will be some who will claim otherwise.

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