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We had one film release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Despicable Me 3

While Disney/Pixar has trouble getting sequels and prequels nominated, Illumination has trouble getting its originals nominated. With only eight films now on their production release list, Illumination hasn’t provided enough data to form definitive opinions, but current data is striking.

Built in 2010 with the release of Despicable Me, Illumination put itself on the map as a strong generator of box office numbers. Yet, Oscar was fleeting. They completely ignored the $251 million release. This was followed in subsequent years by Hop and The Lorax, both of which did well to great at the box office, but were similarly ignored by the Academy. In 2013, Illumination released its first sequel, Despicable Me 2. That film not only scored the studio’s first Best Animated Feature nomination, it picked up two nominations that year to boot, the other for Original Song. It won neither, but the animation ceiling had been broken. Two years later, their spin-off of the Despicable universe starring the popular, though grating Minions did superb box office, but was ignored by the Academy, likely because it was harmless kid fluff.

Last year, they had two more releases, The Secret Life of Pets and Sing. Both were strong box office performers, but the Academy ignored both. That puts Illumination at 1 of 7. It isn’t a great stat, but it’s better than the complete 1-in-11 competitor Blue Sky has managed (the original Ice Age was Animated Feature nominated, but its only other Oscar nominee, Rio, was only for Best Original Song). Still, it seems that Illumination can’t get its first films nominated, but did get Despicable Me 2 nominated. That’s a good sign for Despicable Me 3 in general; however, with no data on sequels to the other original titles they’ve released, it’s impossible to know if we have a trend or an anomaly. Despicable Me 3 will test that theory.

Then we’ll have more or less evidence in the future when Secret Life of Pets, Minions, and Sing each get follow-ups. For now, other evidence may point to Oscar failure this year as Despicable Me 3 has gotten generally positive reviews, but they have not been overwhelmingly positive: a 63% at Rotten Tomatoes (only 5.7 average rating from those critics) and a mediocre 48 at MetaCritic. Without critics in its corner, there won’t be a lot of options for the film except an utter collapse of its competitors, which might not be as big a stretch as it may seem. Of the eight animated films released so far this year, Cars 3, Captain Underpants, and The Lego Batman Movie are the only films to receive better reviews than Despicable Me 3 and at least one of those isn’t Oscar fodder. Plus, considering what’s left to release this year in terms of wide productions (The Emoji Movie, Leap!, and Coco), it’s prospects look up, but only slightly.

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