We had one film release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Historically Disney’s franchise films have been solid performers at the Oscars. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales should be no exception, but things may be different this time around.

When Pirates of the Caribbean was first released in 2003, it was a novel adventure, a high seas adventure based off a popular attraction at Walt Disney World. No one thought it would succeed, but thanks to a stellar lead performance by Johnny Depp, the film sailed into the record books and took home boatloads of money. It was nominated for five Academy Awards, all in creative categories except one: Depp was nominated for Best Actor. While not entirely a surprise, it was a selection the Academy rarely makes. Although it went home empty-handed, its loss in Best Visual Effects to juggernaut The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King would put the film squarely in the sights of Academy voters in the future.

Four years later, the first sequel, Dead Man’s Chest was also a box office strongman and the film pulled in four Oscar nominations, finally winning Best Visual Effects as recompense for its previous loss. The next year, the second film made tons of money and At World’s End showed up at the Oscars once again. This time, however, the film only managed two nominations, a sure sign of the future.

Another four years went by before the fourth film, On Stranger Tides, pulled in plenty of cash, though its tally was far below any of its predecessors. It also lagged behind at the Oscars, picking up no nominations. We are now 14 years beyond the original film’s release and the box office doesn’t appear to be playing into the film’s hands. While it will be an international hit, U.S. audiences have soured on the series. The $62 million opening is far below the previous three outings. While the film is performing on par with critics as the fourth entry did, the opening suggests the film will underperform and without support from audiences, the film’s chances of scoring with the Academy are virtually nil.