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We had three films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Ralph Breaks the Internet

When you look at the nominees and winners for Best Animated Feature, there are two facts that are irrefutable. One is that Disney/Pixar is responsible for the majority of nominees and a huge majority of the winners. Two is that Disney/Pixar sequels rarely ever get nominated with only Toy Story 3 managing to accomplish the feat. Matter of fact, only three sequels from any studio have ever been nominated for the Oscars.

So what does a film like Ralph Breaks the Internet do? There probably isn’t anything. While the film wasn’t as meagerly received as Monsters University, it wasn’t as well received as Finding Dory. Whereas none of them were as well reviewed as Toy Story 3, which had the added benefit of both prior films releasing prior to the category’s existince.

With stiff competition from Incredibles 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet has two potential saving graces. The first is that the Academy recently changes the rules to make it more likely for major studio efforts to get nominated over smaller independent releases. The second is that there is a genuine sense that the original Wreck-It Ralph should have won the Oscar over Brave because it was a successful departure for Disney while Brave was built on a Disney formula for Pixar.

While the film’s chances aren’t great, they are slightly better than a lot of those other films because of a weaker overall slate of contenders this year. That said, I expect Incredibles 2 to have a better shot at a nomination than this film and would not be surprised to see it skipped even if it doesn’t deserve to be.

The Favourite

Yorgos Lanthimos has been on Oscar’s radar before, but almost superficially. His third feature film, Dogtooth, was a Foreign Language Film nominee and his fifth film, The Lobster, was nominated for Best Original Screenplay.

What doesn’t helm Lanthimos’ film is that his other four films weren’t even remotely Oscar competitive. That doesn’t mean much for The Favourite, though, since critics have been heaping bounteous praise on the film and, in general, it feels like a far more accessible film than any of his others, including both of his Oscar nominees.

Earning strong support during its festival circuit run, the film has been near the top of prognosticators’ lists of potential Oscar nominees for awhile, if only for Olivia Colman’s lauded performance. So strong is the chatter for her and the other two leads in the film, Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone, that competing all three in one category wasn’t going to work, so they bumped Colman to lead and kept Weisz and Stone in support. This could backfire for the film as Best Actress is a far more competitive slate than Best Supporting Actress. Matter of fact, a surefire Oscar for Colman has been put into heavy doubt by her shift to the lead category, a decision a lot of people who’ve seen the film don’t agree with.

That said, aside from the potential acting nominations, the film is being talked up as a potential Best Picture nominee as well in categories like Original Screenplay, Production Design, and Costume Design. Little is being said about Lanthimos’ chances in Best Directing, but that’s more a byproduct of the large field competing there. Ultimately, I suspect the film will end up with at least three nominations for Colman and the film’s production and costume design. Beyond that, it will be competitive, but strong support from critics could propel it into at least five.

Shoplifters

Acclaimed Japanese filmmaker Hirokazu Koreeda has released his latest film to great success, winning the Palme d’Or at the Cannes International Film Festival. While that doesn’t mean much to the broader Oscar competition, Best Foreign Language Film is a distinct possibility.

The film, about a family of shoplifters who take in a lost little girl and give her a home and a family unlike any she’s ever had, teaching her the trade as they go, has received superlative reviews from critics. That goes a long way with the Academy members who vote in the Foreign Language Film category. That it’s more accessible than a lot of the more celebrated unconventional works that have gotten passed over in the past, is certainly a benefit.

Unfortunately, the voters who make the nominations are particularly fond of sappy films, meaning that the film, which may not be too sentimental, could risk missing the list if it weren’t for rules in place that allow the foreign language film committee to rescue a handful of productions from elimination. This could help the film place on the shortlist, but won’t necessarily propel it to a nomination. If it gets a nomination, it could win. We’ll just have to wait and see.

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