We had five films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Allied

Robert Zemeckis was once a huge name in the realm of cinema. Apart from his Back to the Future films, Zemeckis also brought us 80s classics like Romancing the Stone and Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Best Picture Oscar winner Forrest Gump and one of the great sci-fi films of all-time, Contact. Even as the 00’s broke, Zemeckis put forth popular efforts like Cast Away and The Polar Express.

Yet, somehow, his post-Gump legacy has been Oscar anemic. That’s why the period romantic spy thriller Allied seemed like an opportunity for him to nab box office hit with two recognizable and sexy stars in the lead and play for Oscar’s attention at the same time. The problem is that even his Oscar-nominated recent effort Flight couldn’t muster the degree of critical support he once enjoyed.

Allied has earned a slightly Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes (62%) and a mediocre 60 rating from MetaCritic. The box office, however, was awful. Pulling in a meager $17 million over the five-day Thanksgiving holiday is not something Oscar voters are likely to be impressed by. And without popular support or critical acclaim, the film looks to be heading towards oblivion. It could still merit nominations in categories like Production Design and Costume Design, but that’s as far as the film is likely to reach.

Moana

Disney/Pixar’s third commercial release for 2016 is proving to be a box office juggernaut. Like Frozen before it, Moana is driving strong ticket sales and has earned excellent reviews from critics. That pretty much assures its inclusion in the Best Animated Feature slate at the Oscars. There are two other questions worth exploring, then. 1) Will it compete for the win? 2) Will it compete in any other categories.

Let’s start off with the first question. Best Animated Feature is a tight competition this year with three films that could very well make plays for the win. The oft-nominated, but never rewarded Laika animation has its best prospect in years with Kubo and the Two Strings. The stop-motion picture has earned huzzahs from across the board, besting Moana on MetaCritic and falling a mere 1% behind it on Rotten Tomatoes (to be fair, Kubo has an average 8.4 rating while Moana only has an 8.0 rating, and the final tallies aren’t even in yet for Disney’s film). It’s other main competition is Zootopia, which, surprisingly, managed to handily top the list at the Annie Awards nominations announced today. Kubo had just one fewer nomination than Zootopia, mix in the possibility that The Red Turtle could be a strong contender as well and the chances of Moana winning depend entirely on how the critic awards split.

The second question is one that hasn’t been answered often as animated features tend to figure in only one or two categories outside of Best Animated Feature. Those categories are Best Original Song and Best Original/Adapted Screenplay. The former is almost guaranteed at this point (though for which song?), while the latter seems far less likely. The film could also be nominated for Best Original Score (if the Original Song Score itself doesn’t help disqualify it altogether) and Best Sound Editing. I’d say that two nominations are sure while three is doable and four may be stretching things a bit.

Rules Don’t Apply

Five films. That’s how many actor Warren Beatty has helmed since his directorial debut Heaven Can Wait in 1978. Rules Don’t Apply also marks the first film he’s directed in 18 years. That kind of span between pictures is seldom a positive thing, and the end result of Rules Don’t Apply effectively solidifies that sentiment.

The story, presented in the trailers as a romantic seriocomedy set in 1960s Hollywood, is ostensibly about a young ingenue (Lily Collins) who comes to Hollywood as a contract actress for Howard Hughes (Beatty) while her driver (Alden Ehrenreich) slowly falls in love with her. However, the film is more specifically a Hughes biopic looking at him late in life as the rumors of his craziness have become more entrenched and threaten to pull the rug out from under his financial empire.

Beatty’s paean to Old-New Hollywood is handsomely mounted, but struggles in all measures that count: performance, story, and directing. The film’s utter disaster at the box office are certain to relegate it to the dustbin of Oscar bait history, but there are still some bright spots for the film. The lovely title tune could be a Best Original Song nominee, as could the film’s Production Design and Costume Design. Those might be more of a stretch now that it’s a commercial failure, but stranger things have happened in the design branches.

Lion

There was a time when Harvey Weinstein was a god among producers who turned every project into Oscar gold. However, as his underhanded tactics began to earn recognition for increasingly undeserving pictures, his influence began to fade. Part of his collapse also had to do with pushing too many efforts at once, leading to limited recognition for individual projects.

As he has refocused his efforts at the Weinstein Company, his track record has improved and may be in full blown resurgence with this emotional darling. Last year, he tried to earn recognition for three films, The Hateful Eight, Carol, and Woman in Gold. Woman in Gold was ultimately pushed to the side as it became clear through Oscar season that it didn’t have much of a chance. The Hateful Eight premiered to lackluster reviews, making it difficult to push the ultra-violent pic to prominence, ultimately resulting in a scant three nominations. Weinstein did, however, push for legendary film composer Ennio Morricone who took home a career tribute Oscar having written a score for a film within the genre that helped make him a legend.

Their third film, Carol, had all the earmarks of a major Oscar player. Major support from critics, a glossy period setting, and a brilliant pair of actresses in the lead (though he pushed Rooney Mara unfairly to support). Todd Haynes’ lesbian drama picked up six nominations last year, but missed out where it counted most: Best Picture. Not only was Haynes left off the Best Director slate, but the film couldn’t even manage a Best Picture nomination, both of which it richly deserved. Whether it was the subject matter or Weinstein backlash, those frustrations of last year and years prior may not be important this year.

While Weinstein has three films he could conceivably push, it seems like both Sing Street and Hands of Stone will be left to their own device and Lion will be the beneficiary of the legendary Weinstein push. Lion is the kind of middle-of-the-road crowd-pleaser that he’s excelled at selling in the past. The film’s 75% Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes (6.8 average rating) and 64 on MetaCritic are decent scores. They aren’t likely to generate much response from most critics groups, but the Academy loves its emotional dramas. The film is likely to earn nominations in several categories, including Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay and could make appearances in Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, Best Original Score, and Best Film Editing.

It’s chances of winning aren’t very good, but this may be a case study in how much the Academy has changed since the new membership rules were put in place. I have no idea how many voting members were dropped from the rolls, but the type of voter Weinstein excelled at appealing to over the years, are precisely the kind of voters that were being targeted by this push. Younger, working actors are more likely to recognize fresher content than their elder counterparts. How this will ultimately affect Weinstein’s campaign strategy remains to be seen, but it will be fascinating to explore once the dust settles.

Miss Sloane

Another film with a lackluster critical profile, Miss Sloane has far less going for it than Lion. The studio behind Miss Sloane, EuropaCorp, has zero experience running a successful Oscar campaign. That means it has only a few places where it can effectively compete.

The primary of these is Best Actress where Academy favorite Jessica Chastain, with two prior Oscar nominations, stands a chance of being nominated in a tough field. Early reviews favorably single her out suggesting she should make appearances in all of the precursor groups with nominations announcements. She isn’t likely to win any precursor awards, but the visibility will help.

Other than that, the film has very few avenues to pursue. Being set in a modern period, the tech categories are out of reach. Best Picture isn’t a place for a minor distributor to earn major recognition without some manner of experience doing so. That, combined with limited other options suggests Chastain may be the film’s sole nominee, or she might be accompanied by a Best Supporting Actor or screenwriting nomination as well.