We had two films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Thor: Ragnarok

When discussing the Oscar potential for any film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, it’s instructive to look back at the history of nominees and what common factors there are. We’ve talked many times about this in the past, so we only need to hit on a quick overview before delving into Thor: Ragnarok‘s chances.

With the MCU, there used to be a rule that went: if Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.) is a character, then it’s an automatic Oscar nominee. If he doesn’t feature, the film is out of luck. Around the time of Captain America: Civil War and Avengers: Age of Ultron, that dynamic shifted permanently and the opposite became true. This was also thanks in part of the appearance of the Guardians of the Galaxy. This means that Thor: Ragnarok is showing up at the right time. Without Iron Man in tow, the film has a better chance at a nomination, though with so many other potential contenders this year, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Of all the Oscar categories, the Marvel films only fall into a narrow subset of tech categories, with a few minor exceptions. The sound categories and Visual Effect are the primary places the films show up. The sound categories are unlikely this time around, but Best Visual Effects could be a possibility. We start with the big effect of The Incredible Hulk (Mark Ruffalo), but expand from there to the entirety of the various realms outside of Midgard (Earth). Creating those vast worlds can help give the film the otherworldly look that Academy voters might appreciate. However, we’ve seen much of this world before and these characters, so it will take something genuinely unique to earn a nomination, especially against such tough competition this year. In the end, Thor: Ragnarok will probably be an also-ran. It might be lucky enough to make the shortlist, but getting in beyond that will be far more challenging.

Lady Bird

On the direct opposite end of the Oscar hierarchy sits an indie film that has began peaking at just the right moment. Lady Bird marks the solo directorial debut of indie darling Greta Gerwig. Gerwig has starred in and/or written numerous specialty projects over the years, but has seldom been in the mix for Oscar consideration. Her first major brush with Oscar chatter was Frances Ha five years ago when she appeared on several Best Actress and screenwriting lists. Three years later, the same talk began circulating for Mistress America. Then last year, her performances in 20th Century Women (mostly) and Jackie (minorly) also managed to make a few waves.

This time around, she’s not acting in the film. Instead, she’s relying on two-time Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan to carry the film with fellow Oscar nominee Lucas Hedges in support and three-time Emmy winner Laurie Metcalfe already the heavy favorite for Best Supporting Actress. The film has received stellar reviews, currently sitting at 100% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes (81 reviews, average rating of 8.7/10) and a superb 93 at MetaCritic. That positions it well for major plays at the year-end critics awards.

Right now, the film is certain to be a Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Screenplay contender. Beyond that, Ronan could be in the running for a Best Actress citation, though that category is fairly fierce right now; for Best Picture earning one of the regular indie spots; and even possibly Best Director, which would make Gerwig only the fifth woman ever nominated there and the second woman from the United States to earn the nomination. Of these categories, Director is probably the toughest journey. With only five spots, the Academy has struggled to recognize women there, even after the historic win by Kathryn Bigelow.

This year, thanks to the change in member dynamics, could change that, but Best Director has often been more insular than Best Picture and more subject to the whims of its voters and they are still overwhelmingly men. That, combined with the massive number of contenders there, it could be an uphill climb for her.