Posted

in

by

Tags:


On our message board, the UAADB (Unofficial Academy Award Discussion Board), we have an annual tradition where we look at the year’s Oscar nominees in certain categories and try to decide if the individual will make a return to the Oscars at some point in the near future. There’s also a bonus round for predicting what non-nominated talent who was a major competitor during the given year will soon become an Oscar nominee.

I’m turning that concept into a 7-week feature for Cinema Sight. In addition to the acting and directing categories that our posters typically cite, I’m going to throw in Animated Feature brining the category count to six plus an additional week for the bonus round.

For our second week, let’s take a look at Best Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis – Fences

(3 nominations {2008, 2011, 2016}, 1 win {2016})

Most actors start early in life and pursue their careers for decades before finding relevance. Viola Davis took a different trajectory, graduating from Julliard in 1993, at the age of 28. From there, she earned her first big screen credit in 1996 an unnamed nurse in The Substance of Fire. She spent much of the next decade on television, including a brief stint on the short-lived TV series City of Angels.

Although she would appear in a number of high profile films in roles as named characters (Out of Sight, Far from Heaven, Antwone Fisher, Solaris), it wasn’t until her breakout performance in 2008’s Doubt that she become a major player in cinema, television, and at the Oscars. It was her first nomination in a brief, but pivotal role in the film. Her next few acting choices weren’t particularly celebrated, but she pulled off another Oscar nomination, this time in the lead category, in 2011 for The Help.

From there, she made appearances in several major Oscar and big screen players (Prisoners, Beautiful Creatures, Get On Up, and Suicide Squad along with the role of a lifetime in the ABC mystery drama How to Get Away with Murder. After having won a Tony in the role, Davis was chosen by actor/director Denzel Washington to perform alongside him again in the adaptation of August Wilson’s play Fences. Oscar couldn’t ignore her any longer and gave her the prize for Best Supporting Actress.

There are only two projects currently listed on her docket for the big screen. Oscar-nominated director Steve McQueen has her slated to appear in his new film Widows, which could afford the 51-year-old actress to earn another Oscar nomination, but her best chance at another win is for the unscheduled Harriet Tubman biopic in the title role. Tubman is one of the seminal figures of the American Civil War and for African American rights in the United States and should afford the forceful actress a lot of opportunity for fireworks. If it releases in 2018, it’s unlikely she can parlay that into a second Oscar so soon, but if she gets a nod for Widows this year and then sees the film release in 2019, a second Oscar would certainly not be out of the question.

Whatever order they release in, there’s little question that Davis will be back at the Oscars, likely sooner rather than later, but the second Oscar might be a ways off. Of course, considering what she has on deck, I wouldn’t be surprised if she has one within the next couple of years.

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

(1 nomination {2016})

Making her small screen debut in 1987 as part of the cast of the short-lived series Simon and the Witch, Naomie Harris had a dry spell through the 1990s with only two performances, both in short-lived series: Runaway Bay and The Tomorrow People. Seven years after Tomorrow People, she made her silver screen debut in a little-seen film called Living in Hope.

While her dearth of roles may be attributed to her pursuit of schooling, she has worked quite steadily since Living in Hope, making numerous appearances in films big and small, including Zombie Apocalypse drama 28 Days Later, the original Pirates of the Caribbean film, as well as consequential movies like Street Kings and inconsequential ones like Ninja Assassin.

Her role as Eve in Skyfall, which eventually led her to the role of the new Moneypenny in the franchise, brought Harris even more attention, leading to prominent roles in films like Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Southpaw, and Collateral Beauty. Yet, it was her other 2016 role, that of a drug-addicted mother in Best Picture Oscar winner Moonlight that finally brought her bounteous acclaim and her first Oscar nomination.

She has two films on the docket for 2018 and nothing beyond that. One is as a character named Nisha in the non-Disney Jungle Book adaptation, which is as far from an Oscar-capable feature. The other is from San Andreas director Brad Peyton. Called Rampage, the video game adaptation is even less Oscar-caliber than Jungle Book will be. And that’s all she has. Presumably, she’ll be in the next James Bond movie, but that isn’t going to bring her Oscar attention either.

I suspect that this will likely be a one-and-done nomination for Harris. Her past and future filmography doesn’t bode well for her chances and the type of role that Moonlight affords doesn’t come around very often. It’s possible that, in the distant future, if she can find another strong project, she could be back, but I doubt it.

Nicole Kidman – Lion

(4 nominations {2001, 2002, 2010, 2016}, 1 win {2002})

Her big screen debut came in 1983 at the age of 16. Nicole Kidman made several appearances in film and television in her native Australia, but it wasn’t until the late 80s that she emerged as an international force with Philip Noyce’s Dead Calm a major turning point and Days of Thunder, opposite her soon-to-be husband Tom Cruise.

From there, her career was never the same with one box office or critical hit after another for the rest of the decade, culminating with her first Oscar nomination in Moulin Rouge! in 2001, a role that earned her vast acclaim alongside another critic’s darling The Others that year. The very next year, she donned a prosthetic nose (that was digitally enhanced enough to make the achievement in eligible for Best Makeup at the Oscars that yaer) to play Virginia Woolf in The Hours. This brought her an Oscar on her second nomination.

It would be eight years before she would make another Oscar appearance in John Cameron Mitchell’s drama Rabbit Hole. That wasn’t for lack of trying. That decade was filled with performances in films that, on paper, looked like sure Oscar contenders. Some were, most weren’t as she also padded her resume with corny comedies and cheap theatrics. After her Rabbit Hole performance got her an Oscar nomination, she began picking more obscure and dramatic roles, but it wasn’t until Lion that she finally secured her fourth nomination, this time in the supporting category.

Kidman has always made interesting choices even if they weren’t always wise ones. She has six different films on her schedule for the next two years, so any one of them could possibly earn her a fifth nomination. Well, not any of them. There are three films with 2017 release projections. Rabbit Hole director Mitchell will take the helm of the Neil Gaiman short story adaptation How to Talk to Girls at Parties and co-starring Elle Fanning. The premise is a bit far out there for Academy tastes, the story of an alien touring the galaxy and meeting two Londonites.

The second film is Oscar-nominated writer/director Sofia Coppola’s new film The Beguiled, which features a starry cast including Fanning again as well as Kirsten Dunst and Colin Farrell. The Civil War feminist drama is sure to make waves when it premieres, so it could be a potential Oscar vehicle for her. The third film is Lobster director Yorgos Lanthimos’ new film co-starring Farrell and Alicia Silverstone may seem like a standard dysfunctional family drama, but Lanthimos’ films just aren’t on Oscar’s radar in spite of Dogtooth‘s Foreign Language Film nomination in 2009.

Kidman has two films slated for 2018. You can immediately ignore the DC Universe Aquaman film, but not Illusionist director Neil Burger’s adaptation of the popular French foreign language film (and almost an Oscar nominee) The Intouchables. Untouchable co-stars Kidman, Bryan Cranston, Kevin Hart, and Julianna Margulies. While the French film was a hit and many thought it would be Oscar nominated, the film ultimately missed the Oscar boat and anytime you have Hart in something, you have to at least modestly question its Oscar potential.

That leaves one film, the as-yet-unscheduled Rebecca Miller comedy starring Kidman, Amy Schumer, and Steve Carell. This is another idiosyncratic choice for Kidman and also unlikely to turn into anything Oscar-capable. That said, even if her one major opportunity of these six, The Beguiled, doesn’t turn into an Oscar vehicle, she is sure to make another Oscar appearance one day. A second win, however, will be a stretch and may come very late in her career. At least she’ll have an Emmy nomination for Big Little Lies to look forward in the interim.

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

(2 nominations {2011, 2016}, 1 win {2011})

Before she broke through to the Oscars in The Help five years ago, Octavia Spencer had the kind of career that no one would have imagined would lead to an Oscar nomination, better yet a victory. The 44-year-old actress has always seemed older than her age as she has become well known for playing wizened characters like both of her Oscar-nominated performances. She has become a bit typecast, but she does so quite effortlessly.

She first appeared on the big screen in 1996 as an unnamed nurse in the box office hit A Time to Kill. Afterwards, she amassed over 110 film and television credits in the next two decades. While no one would mistake her career for anything more than a journeyman actress doing what she does best, she has had a remarkable career, which has now been exemplified by her two supporting nominations.

No one would have thought she would make a return appearance at the Oscars after winning on her first nomination in 2011, she has nevertheless done so for Hidden Figures. While her character has the same feisty qualities in both films, her maternal grace in Hidden Figures, in a way, eclipses her Oscar-winning performance.

Of her six 2017 credits, one is voice-over work and the other is a TV movie. On television, it appears she will reprise her role as one of the civic leaders of the Divergent series, a role that isn’t likely to result in Emmy consideration. One of the films has already released. The Shack was a modest hit for inspiration-minded audiences, but won’t be an Oscar contender. Her second film was scheduled for March 11, but hasn’t yet been seen and doesn’t sound like much of an Oscar contender.

That leaves two films, one of which is Gifted, a film starring Chris Evans about a smart young girl whose late mother wanted her to live a normal life, but whose grandmother wants her raised in the best schools against her father’s wishes. Spencer again plays the wizened advisor. The Marc Webb film releases April 7, which suggests it won’t be much of an Oscar player either. The final film on her 2017 list is The Shape of Water by director Guillermo del Toro. Set against the backdrop of the Cold War, this supposedly other-worldly story might be akin to Pan’s Labyrinth. While that film scored several Oscar nominations, the film is more likely to do well in creative categories than above-the-line races.

Since we never would have believed Spencer would be back after her Oscar win, it’s possible she makes more appearances in the near future. However, the likelihood of that is still fairly low. We won’t rule her out, but a third nomination may take a few years and a second win just doesn’t seem possible.

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

(4 nominations {2005, 2010, 2011, 2016})

Four Oscar nominations at such a young age is rare. Michelle Williams, who turns 37 this year, is one of the most honored young actresses working in film today. Her first nomination came at 25 for her performance in Brokeback Mountain. Five years later, she had her second for Blue Valentine and picked up a third the next year with My Week with Marilyn. It’s now been five years and she’s picked up her fourth nomination for Manchester by the Sea.

Williams has been working in film since she was 14 in the 1994 re-adaptation of classic TV series Lassie. She made several appearances in film before turning 20, including the breakout performance on TV series Dawson’s Creek in 1998 and for the show’s full six seasons. Two years later, she landed the role of Alma in Brokeback and her career trajectory would never been the same.

She’s since earned numerous accolades and has been in the Oscar conversation multiple times aside from her four nominated roles. She came close in 2008 for Wendy and Lucy and were she not nominated for other films, she could have gotten nods for Take This Waltz in 2011 or Meek’s Cutoff in 2010. The question is not will she be nominated again. She most definitely will. The question is when will she finally win.

Like frequent nominee Amy Adams, Williams is on the cusp of Oscar recognition and looking at her next four films, there’s one in particular that no only seems like an assured nomination, it also looks like the perfect vehicle to finally win her an Oscar. Before we get to that film, however, since it doesn’t have a release date yet, let’s look at the three other films on her schedule. For 2017, she has two entries. The first is Todd Haynes’ new film Wonderstruck, a story told in parallel 50 years apart. Haynes has a history of getting his actors nominated, so it’s possible she makes the nominations list for that film.

She could have a better shot with the period musical spectacle The Greatest Showman starring Hugh Jackman, Rebecca Ferguson, and Zac Efron. The film is slated for a Christmas release. The Academy loves singing and dancing, so she could get a nod for that film as well. After that, the unscheduled Jonah Hill directorial debut Mid ’90s finds Williams opposite fellow 2016 Oscar nominee Lucas Hedges. However, we have no idea whether Hill will turn out to be a good director or a bad one and the story of a boy growing up in 1990s L.A. has potential towards both the good and the bad ends of the quality spectrum.

Writing that film off, the assured nomination will likely come when Williams trades in her blond Marilyn Monroe wig to deliver another biopic performance as legendary singer Janis Joplin. Janis will be directed by Martha Marcy May Marlene helmer Sean Durkin. Although Durkin’s prior film received plenty of acclaim and was in play for an Oscar nomination for star Elizabeth Olsen, however, Oscar didn’t bite. This time, they likely will. Williams history of nominations alone puts her in prime position for future nominations and with so many, the Academy would be foolish to ignore her again. On top of that, Joplin herself is a figure steeped in fame, mystery, and tragedy, a character that has plenty of meat to merit Oscar attention. If Williams does her own singing in the film, it could be a one-two Oscar punch.

Verified by MonsterInsights