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On our message board, the UAADB (Unofficial Academy Award Discussion Board), we have an annual tradition where we look at the year’s Oscar nominees in certain categories and try to decide if the individual will make a return to the Oscars at some point in the near future. There’s also a bonus round for predicting what non-nominated talent who was a major competitor during the given year will soon become an Oscar nominee.

I’m turning that concept into a 7-week feature for Cinema Sight. In addition to the acting and directing categories that our posters typically cite, I’m going to throw in Animated Feature brining the category count to six plus an additional week for the bonus round.

In our third week, we’re going to give consideration to the Best Animated Feature nominees.

For Best Animated Feature, it’s less instructive to look at the individuals nominated and look at the studios or distributors involved. So, that’s how we’ve done our analyses.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Zootopia – Byron Howard, Rich Moore, Clark Spencer

Moana – John Musker, Ron Clements, Osnat Shurer

Disney (9 nominations {2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016 x2}, 3 wins {2013, 2014, 2016})
Pixar (10 nominations {2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015}, 8 wins {2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015})


There has never been and never will be a studio quite like Disney or its once-distribution-partner, now-subsidiary Pixar. For closing in on a century, Walt Disney Animation has been at the forefront of the artistic world of animated films. They may not have launched the computer-generated revolution, they have embraced and supported it with their own efforts and Pixar’s along the way.

While Disney and Pixar are technically two different production units under the Disney parent company and Pixar didn’t earn any Oscar nominations this past year, the two are inextricably tied together. As such, discussing one company’s potential while ignoring the other is a fool’s errand.

Ten Pixar films and 9 Disney films have been nominated over the 16-year course of the Animated Feature category. Since the category’s inception in 2001, has failed 6 times to earn nominations. Those films were largely released earlier in the category’s history and during a down period for the studio. Pixar, on the other hand, was dominant during that period, scoring its first nomination during the 2001 campaign and managed to secure nominations for eight consecutive films from Monsters, Inc. to Toy Story 3. After that, they’ve gone 50-50 for nominations.

Meanwhile, Pixar has won 50% of the category’s trophies, taking home eight total prizes, including a four-year streak from 2007 through 2010. Disney, on the other hand, has taken three prizes in its history, all of which have been received in the last 5 years. Matter of fact, since 2007, Disney and Pixar have been responsible for all of the category’s winners except one. In 2011, Disney had Winnie the Pooh in competition while Pixar had Cars 2. Bothe films failed to make the Oscar nominees list resulting in a win for Paramount’s Rango.

That dominance leads to the question of which of the next several Disney and Pixar films will be nominated and win. On the Disney front, the studio has two titles on the schedule. Both are set for 2018 debuts. One is the sequel to the strong Oscar competitor Wreck-It Ralph titled Ralph Breaks the Internet and an original title called Gigantic. The Academy has largely rejected sequels for Oscar consideration, nominating only a small number of films. Depending on competition in 2018, Ralph is the weaker of the contenders and will not likely make the list unless fans of the original protest against its loss. Gigantic, however, is certain to be a nominee and possibly a winner.

The reason I say possibly is Pixar also has a film due out in 2018. The Incredibles 2, the sequel to the immensely popular and Oscar winner for Best Animated Feature The Incredibles. While Cars 2, Monsters University, and Finding Dory all failed to pick up Oscar nominations for their subsequent outings, only Finding Dory followed an Oscar-winning predecessor, the other two films had nominations, but not wins in their series’ past. Compare that with Toy Story 3‘s dominance of awards season during its release and you have a good case for Incredibles 2 making a play for the Oscars.

Before that, Pixar has two titles in the race for 2017 and based on the desolate landscape so far in 2017, they could both compete. Cars 3 returns to the roots of what made the first film a success while Coco branches out with an original vision from Pixar. When Pixar goes original, they get nominated (the lone exception to this is The Good Dinosaur, which is, to date, their only original title not to score an Oscar nomination). Coco is also likely going to win without competition from Disney as the other studios don’t have much original content on deck for the year. Meanwhile Cars 3 faces an uphill battle to become the first animated film to have a prior installment not nominated, but still getting a nomination. It would be unprecedented in a category that doesn’t have a lot of history to build precedent.

Then there’s 2019 and the only film on the schedule from either of these studios is Toy Story 4, and it should easily get a nomination, but a win depends on what else is out there and how tired people are of that particular series.

Kubo and the Two Strings – Travis Knight, Arianne Sutner

(4 nominations {2009, 2012, 2014, 2016})

Although Laika Entertainment worked on Oscar-nominated animated feature Corpse Bride in 2005, their first full production didn’t release until 2009, but it was an Oscar nominee. Coraline became a critical success and the company went on to produce films ParaNorman, The Boxtrolls, and Kubo and the Two Strings. All four films are Animated Feature Oscar nominees, though the studio hasn’t won yet.

Laika is currently the only animated studio to have a perfect score in terms of Oscar nominations, having secured berths for every one of its solo productions. While those prior film’s successes enabled the company to position itself for more future work, a rumor has been circulating saying the studio may be shuttering. That there is no evidence that they have another film in the production pipeline is worrying. However, if they continue, it’s only a matter of time before they win. Kubo and the Two Strings was their most celebrated title ever and had the race-relations film Zootopia not come out, it most certainly would have won.

From all reports, the studio has optioned two books for adaptation, both fantasy. One is Colin Meloy’s Wildwood, and the other is Philip Reeve’s Goblins. I’m not familiar with either of these titles, but if either of these are produced, it would be the first time the studio has created a non-original work adapted from other sources. That could either be a brilliant move or folly. For now, let’s just hope the studio maintains its quality track record and can secure the funds to continue operating as it is truly one of the greatest animation houses that have ever existed.

My Life as a Zucchini – Claude Barras, Max Karli

(9 nominations {2009, 2011 x2, 2013, 2014 x2, 2015 x2, 2016})

In 2008, a little distrubtor called GKids began purchasing foreign titles and selling them on the American marketplace. By 2009, the distributor had nabbedits first Oscar nomination for The Secret of Kells. To that point, the major studios had largely had a stranglehold on the category, this suggested that times were changing and indeed they did.

Over the next seven years, GKids managed to earn nominations nine more times, twice in 2011 for A Cat in Paris and Chico & Rita; once in 2013 for Ernest & Celestine; twice more in 2014 with Song of the Sea and The Tale of the Princess Kaguya; and twice again in 2015 with Boy and the World and When Marnie Was There.

In 2016, they brought in a nomination for My Life As a Zucchini, an achievement that seemed more expected than surprising, as has become the norm in this category. Matter of fact, there appears to now be a GKids spot at the Oscars and, in years where studio output is weaker, two spots may well be reserved.

On their radar for 2017 are two films, Mune: Guardian of the Moon from France and The Breadwinner from Ireland (and Canada and Luxembourg). Mune is a fantasy film about a small creature who must recover the Sun after it’s stolen. The Breadwinner is about a young girl who dresses as a boy in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan after her father is arrested in order to help her family survive.

Based solely on premise, Mune seems to be a bit too fantastical for the Academy’s voters as they may see this as the realm of childish entertainment, a factor that has doomed any number of popular studio efforts. The Breadwinner, on the other hand, has the earmarks of a great political film that will speak to world events. The last heavily politicized film to secure an Oscar nomination was Marjane Satrapi’s Persepolis in 2007. If GKids is going to strike this year, I believe that will be its best opportunity.

They don’t currently have any other projects purchased for distribution in the U.S., but the festival market is sure to heat up over the next several months and other products are sure to creep into the 2017 release calendar and thus into Oscar’s sights thanks to GKids’ tremendous efforts. They’ll get nominated again for sure and a win might not be too far off.

The Red Turtle – Michael Dudok de Wit, Toshio Suzuki

(6 nominations {2002, 2005, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016}, 1 win {2002})

The last of the year’s nominated studios is Studio Ghibli, the legendary house that Hayao Miyazaki built. Miyazaki, frequently called the Japanese Walt Disney has crafted a niche in the anime (Japanese animation) industry that is unparalleled. His films are celebrated around the world and have earned three Oscar nominations, winning him the award in 2002 for Spirited Away.

Had the category existed for longer, he might have more nominations. He’s so well respected that he is one of the few foreign auteurs to receive an Honorary Oscar from the Academy. For the first three nominations for the studio, Miyazaki was the recipient. Those titles were Spirited Away in 2002, Howl’s Movie Castle in 2005, and The Wind Rises in 2013. After Miyazaki announced his retirement with The Wind Rises, the studio has had to make do with other artists, namely Yoshiaki Nishimura and Isao Takahata’s The Tale of the Princess Kaguya in 2015, bolstered by the distribution agreement with GKids; Nishimura and collaborator Hiromasa Yonebayashi’s When Marnie Was There, also with GKids; and a Sony release for Oscar winner Michael Dudok de Wit’s The Red Turtle.

Although Ghibli has a distribution agreement with GKids now (it used to have one with Disny), Red Turtle was released elsewhere likely due to rights acquisitions. Either way, Ghibli has quietly amassed a number of nominations over the years, including one each in the last consecutive four years, suggesting it is certain to be a major player in years to come. Another victory depends heavily on who they put forward. Their 2002 win was for Miyazaki and not the studio, so they don’t have any predilection towards honoring Ghibli’s works.

As of right now, there are no films listed on Studio Ghibli’s release schedule, but future nominations are assured, with future wins a less than optimistic proposition.

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