On our message board, the UAADB (Unofficial Academy Award Discussion Board), we have an annual tradition where we look at the year’s Oscar nominees in certain categories and try to decide if the individual will make a return to the Oscars at some point in the near future. There’s also a bonus round for predicting what non-nominated talent who was a major competitor during the given year will soon become an Oscar nominee.

I’m turning that concept into a 7-week feature for Cinema Sight. In addition to the acting and directing categories that our posters typically cite, I’m going to throw in Animated Feature brining the category count to six plus an additional week for the bonus round.

Week four: Time to examine the potential for the Best Supporting Actor nominees.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

(1 nominations {2016}, 1 win {2016})

With a recurring role on Crossing Jordan in its first season, Mahershala Ali, then going by his full name of Mahershalalhashbaz Ali) started a long and fruitful career as a character actor. Moving from television to film in 2008, Ali has been a consistent present on the big and small screen with a larger focus on television.

He’s made appearances in a number of high profile productions including his film debut in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, the two-film Hunger Games: Mockingjay finale, House of Cards, and The 4400. Yet, it ended up being 2016, 15 years after venturing into film and television, that he had his best year yet.

With prominent roles in the Oscar-abortive Free State of Jones as well as Best Picture nominees Moonlight, and Hidden Figures, Ali also had a sensational run in the Netfix series Luke Cage. All of this effort culminated into his first Oscar nomination and win for Moonlight.

Where does he go from here? First up is a prominent role in Michael Larnell’s 2017 drama Roxanne Roxanne. Larnell has three short films and a theatrical feature in his name, so his potential for Oscar consideration starts at a disadvantage. The film released at Sundance in January and has currently a 100% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes where 9 critics have weighed in. That could be a boon for the film, but the film is being distributed by an neophyte distributor named Neon, which has released one film prior to 2017, Michael Moore’s documentary Where to Invade Next. That doesn’t give the company much traction for an Oscar campaign since it didn’t make the nomination list.

After that, there are two other titles on his list of upcoming films. The first is a rumored appearance in J.C. Chandor’s action-crime drama Triple Frontire opposite Tom Hardy and Channing Tatum (Editor’s Note: this production has been pushed into limbo as Paramount has decided not to proceed with production due to budget concerns. It could still be picked up later or at another studio, but for now, it appears to be dead). The genre alone probably hurts the film’s chances even if Chandor is an Oscar nominee for his filmmaking (writing and directing) debut Margin Call. Plus, being a rumored appearance, so there’s no guarantee it comes to anything.

The only other film on his release schedule is the 2018 Robert Rodriguez film Alita: Battle Angel. The film is likely to be the antithesis of what the Academy typically recognizes, so one shouldn’t ascribe too much to this film’s Oscar chances.

While his upcoming filmography doesn’t have a lot to offer, with the right roles, he could return to the Oscars in the future. Ultimately, I suspect he’ll never hold an Oscar again and a second nomination sounds iffy at the moment.

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

(7 nominations {1971, 1974, 1984, 2000, 2009, 2010, 2016}, 1 win {2009})

In a career that has spanned five decades, 67-year-old Jeff Bridges has always been a popular Hollywood figure, but it was his appearance in the Coen Brothers’ The Big Lebowski that earned him a new generation of followers and admirers and turned him into a cult icon.

Appearing first on television in four guest appearances in 1958 and 1960 episodes of Sea Hunt, Bridges had the benefit of being the child of well known actor Lloyd Bridges, this earned him a couple of appearances on his father’s TV series, and ultimately to a long decade-plus television career. Although he had two big screen credits under his belt, it was his work in Peter Bogdanovich’s The Last Picture Show that earned him significant acclaim and his first of seven Oscar nominations.

His storied career through the 1970s and 1980s is the stuff of Hollywood dreams. Films like Thunderbolt and Lightfoot, The Iceman Cometh, King Kong, TRON, Against All Odds, and Starman displayed a vast range. Among these, Thunderbolt netted him his second Oscar nomination in 1974 followed by a ten-year drought of nominations, ending in 1984 with Starman. Bridges continued working through the 1980s and 1990s, starring in such acclaimed films as Tucker: The Man and His Dreams, The Fabulous Baker Boys (alongside real life brother Beau Bridges), Texasville, The Fisher King, and Fearless.

Then came The Big Lebowski, which positioned him well for a new generation of fans, but was followed by a string of inconsequential films peppered with a few noteworthy ones (The Contender and Seabiscuit). His career seemed to be on a decline until he landed the lead role in Crazy Heart in 2009, a film about a washed up country singer. That film returned him to the limelight and after his lengthy career, the Academy gave him his fifth nomination, his first in 25 years, and his to-date-only Oscar win.

He has since followed that win with two more nominations in 2010 for True Grit, the role he should have won the Oscar for, and this year for Hell or High Water. Bridges has had an impressive career, even with the mediocre work that has colored the latter portion of it, but the big question is can he continue to rack up nominations?

The likely answer is: possibly, but with reservations. To date, only 12 actors in Oscar history have secured more than seven nominations, while exactly that many have picked up seven. The only male actors to have received more than seven are Al Pacino, Peter O’Toole, Jack Lemmon, Marlon Brando, Spencer Tracy, Paul Newman, Laurence Olivier, and Jack Nicholson. Bridges can work until he dies, so he’s got plenty of opportunity, but those figures are lions of the industry and while Bridges is well respected, it would be difficult to compare him to these individuals. Eight nominations might be the limit, because Tracy, Newman, Olivier, and Nicholson are the only ones to get more than that.

What’s coming up for Bridges in terms of Oscar candidates? He has three titles on the schedule for 2017. You can toss Kingsman: The Golden Circle immediately. It’s far too lightweight for Oscar voters. Granite Mountain, from the director of Oblivion and TRON: Legacy Joseph Kosinski, is one of the two films. Alongside Jennifer Connelly, this drama about the 2013 wildfires in Arizona has potential for drama, but is more likely to pique the interests of action fans.

The other film is Marc Webb’s fifth feature. The (500) Days of Summer director followed that film up with the well received The Amazing Spider-Man and its disastrous sequel. His fourth film came out earlier this year: Gifted. Titled The Only Living Boy in New York, the film co-stars Kate Beckinsale and Pierce Brosnan. Since (500) Days was a terrific film, it’s possible Webb will make a return to the good graces of critics, but Gifted was dumped earlier this year into the box office market and received mediocre reviews. Everything points to the film being a tough sell, so it’s possible Bridges is out of the running for anything this year.

With nothing else on the immediate schedule, Bridges doesn’t have a lot of prospects, but seven nominations at the age of 67 is a lot, and he’s sure to have a number of years left in the business. He will likely appear at least once more. The question is will he best the ranks of the other eight-time-plus Oscar nominees and become only the fifth of them (beside Tracy, Lemmon, Brando, and Nicholson) to win a second Oscar? If Pacino, Newman, Olivier, and O’Toole (who only ever received an honorary Oscar) couldn’t do so, Bridges will have to have a role of such exceptional merit that it destroys all competition in the given year.

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

(1 nominations {2016})

It’s hard to examine the career of a 20-year-old actor, especially one that has only been seen on the big screen since 2007 when he appeared in his father Peter Hedges’ film Dan in Real Life, but Lucas Hedges earned an Oscar nomination this year for his role in Manchester by the Sea as a High School hockey star with two girlfriends who must cope with the premature death of his father and an uncle who has gained custody when he doesn’t want it.

Hedges received a large number of accolades throughout 2016, which culminated in his first nomination. From here on out, he has a lengthy career and ruling out a future Oscar appearance would be foolish. However, a look at his next three projects might be indicative.

First up are two 2017 releases. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is Martin McDonagh’s third feature film. His first, In Bruges was an Oscar nominee for writing and was critically acclaimed. His second, Seven Psychopaths had a solid reception from critics, but Oscar didn’t pay attention. This third film has the benefit of a powerhouse lead performance from Frances McDormand, but the trailer suggests Hedges’ role in the film isn’t terribly consequential, or at least Oscar noteworthy. While the film might be a hit for McDonagh with critics and the Oscars, Hedges isn’t likely to benefit.

The second film is actress Greta Gerwig’s first solo directing project and stars Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan in the title role of Lady Bird. It sounds like an independent drama the likes of which have made Gerwig an indie darling, but which are seldom recognized by Oscar voters. Had it been about the legendary First Lady Claudia Alita “Lady Bird” Johnson, it might have had more promise. As such, Hedges probably has another film of limited Oscar potential.

That leaves a film that is still in pre-production, actor Jonah Hill’s directorial debut Mid ’90s. Hill co-wrote the screenplay and Hedges will star alongside Oscar nominee Michelle Williams. The film follows the life of a boy growing up in Los Angeles in the 1990s, a premise that sounds awfully unimpressive. Since we have no idea how good of a director Hill will be, it’s impossible to know if the feature will be any good. However, if it is, Hedges will surely be a contender. My suspicion is that he won’t be making much of a play for the Oscars in the next two years.

Hedges has a very lengthy career ahead of him, if he chooses to continue acting. So far, his filmography seems to be drifting in the specialty box office direction, which is a fine route to take, especially since it will afford him more opportunities to grow and shine as an actor; however, history paints a very dim picture of young actors nominated for Oscars. On the list of ten youngest actors ever nominated for Best Supporting Actor, Hedges ranks eighth. Of the remaining nine names on the list, Justin Henry, Haley Joel Osment, Brandon De Wilde, Jack Wild, Sal Mineo (twice), River Phoenix, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Timothy Hutton, only two of them have ever returned as an Oscar nominee at a later date. Mineo come back five years later and DiCaprio waited elven years to return for his second of five acting nominations. Tragically, this list has two actors, Mineo and Phoenix, who had their careers cut short.

Looking at history, Hedges has a daunting road ahead. He must not only choose his projects wisely, but must attempt to strike out when he can to become a huge star like DiCaprio. Otherwise, it’s unlikely that he ever comes back to the Oscar ceremony. Even a career as big as DiCaprio’s might not result in an Oscar some day, but that’s a long way down the road to be certain.

Dev Patel – Lion

(1 nominations {2016})

At the tender age of 27, Dev Patel has found great success on the big screen. British Patel made his acting debut on the seven-season run of Skins alongside future Oscar contenders Jack O’Connell and Nicholas Hoult among many others. From there, he made the leap to the big screen in 2008’s Oscar-winning Slumdog Millionaire, a film that he earned considerable Oscar buzz for. He and co-star Freida Pinto didn’t score nominations for Danny Boyle’s Best Picture winner, but he parlayed that success into a role in the abortive M. Night Shyamalan disaster The Last Airbender.

He picked himself up and dusted himself off and took the high road appearing alongside a lengthy list of acting legends in John Madden’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, a film that featured three Oscar winners. He agreed to come back for the sequel four years later appearing in two other films in between, Stephen Elliot’s About Cherry and Gren Wells’ The Road Within, neither of which made much of an impression.

Briefly thought to be an Oscar contender, but ultimately finding itself overlooked, his second project in 2015 was Neill Blomkamp’s Chappie. While he also starred in another film in 2015, it didn’t see release until 2016: Matt Brown’s The Man Who Knew Infinity opposite Oscar winner Jeremy Irons. Having played an Indian youth in Slumdog Millionaire, it’s unsurprising that he would again take on such a role in last year’s Lion as the adult version of the child who got lost on a train and ended up miles away from home and now seeks to find his birth parents.

Patel scored his first Oscar nomination in the role, eight years after he should have gotten his first citation. Lion was a lightning-strike kind of film, the rare critics’ darling pushed by The Weinstein Company for Oscar consideration. He earned several citations through awards season, but it was a far cry from the support he received for Slumdog Millionaire.

A strong actor, Patel is certain to show up at the Oscars again in the future, but what the next nomination will be for is hard to know for certain. His next project is that of another hotel manager in Hotel Mumbai. Opposite future Oscar nominee Armie Hammer (for Call Me By Your Name), the film deals with the victims and survivors of the heinous attack on Mumbai in 2008. That kind of drama is sure to appeal to Oscar voters, but the director, Anthony Maras, has a short and unfamiliar career behind him, slightly diminishing the film’s Oscar capabilities. The film doesn’t have a release date, but is in post-production, so it’s likely to make the rounds later this year.

While Patel may never win an Oscar, I’d be surprised if he didn’t show up for at least one or two more nominations.

Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

(2 nominations {2008, 2016})

Are there may working actors today who can claim the vast and unusual filmography of Michael Shannon? The 42-year-old actor first showed up on the big screen in 1993 in the cult hit Groundhog Day. However, it would be almost a decade later before he began taking on roles in films most audiences would be familiar with, starting with Tigerland in 2000 and followed closely by Pearl Harbor in 2001.

After that, Shannon has chosen an eclectic batch of films to show case his skills. his filmography may include box office hits like Pearl Harbor, Bad Boys II (2003), and Man of Steel (2013), his best and most recognizable work has come in the indie market. Scoring critical acclaim in films as varied as Grand Theft Parsons (2003), Bug (2006), Before the Devil Knows Your Dead (2007), Take Shelter (2011), Mud (2012), and Midnight Special (2016), his biggest successes in terms of the Oscars came in 2008 for Revolutionary Road and 2016 for Nocturnal Animals.

The talented actor has a very full slate and there’s little doubt he’ll be around the Oscars for years to come. Considering what’s come before, I have some confidence that he will eventually win won. Seven films appear on his filmography for the next few years, four of which are already in post-production.

Almost nothing is known about State Like Sheep, a film by infrequent director Meredith Danluck opposite Luke Evans and Katherine Waterston, so it’s unlikely the film will be much of an Oscar contender. Next on the list is Pottersville, which is about Shannon’s character’s drunken antics that get him mistaken for bigfoot. The concept is so ludicrous that it probably won’t be up for anything of consequence. That it’s a comedy is a double-whammy.

The third film in post-production is The Current War, a compelling prospect about the rivalry between Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla. With prominent actors in the cast like Katherine Waterston, Benedict Cumberbatch, Tom Holland, Nicholas Hoult, and Matthew Macfadyen, it has some heft. The director is Alfonso Gomez-Rejon who had a major critical success two years ago with Me and Earl and the Dying Girl. That the film has already been picked up by the Weinstein Company gives credence to its Oscar chances.

Of course, with a cast like that, British Cumberbatch, who plays American Edison, and British Hoult who plays Serbian-American Tesla, are more likely to be the beneficiaries of an Oscar campaign. As George Westinghouse, Shannon might have a chance of scoring a supporting nomination, but that’s if they don’t push Hoult into that category to avoid competing with Cumberbatch. Horse Soldiers is the fourth post-production credit on his schedule. Directed by neophyte Nicolai Fuglsig, the struggle to dismantle the Taliban in post-9/11 Afghanistan has potential, but there are so many similar war dramas in release lately and none of them have been warmly received by the Academy. That leaves the remaining two films on his slate.

One of them is actress Elizabeth Chomko’s directorial debut, a film about a woman who must return home to deal with her Alzheimer’s-stricken mother who has wandered off into a blizzard. The film stars Oscar nominees Hilary Swank and Robert Forster as well as Blythe Danner and Taissa Farmiga, so it has some measure of potential; however, a lot about the project doesn’t sound particularly like something Academy voters will go out of their way to see. After that is Siofra Campbell’s thriller The Price co-starring Noomi Rapace. The word “thriller” alone should call into the question the film’s chances, but too little is know about the project to be definitive.

Ultimately, Shannon is likely to be back, perhaps for something unlikely. I also think that an eventual win is in order, but it might be a few years before that happens.