Precursor: 10th Make-Up Artists Guild Nominations (2018)

The Hollywood Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild is one of the few guilds who have categories that can feature multiple nominees. Usually, if you see a film appear in three categories, they are a major player for the Oscar. There are none of those this year. Instead, we have seven films with two citations each. Of those, all but Widows and Mary Poppins Returns are on the Oscar shortlist, with only Border and Suspiria not showing up here at all. That means, you could conceivably say that three of Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Queen of Scots, Stan & Ollie, and Vice will be the nominees.

The only fly in that ointment is Border. The Academy’s makeup branch has often cited foreign films in their category that didn’t show up here. So, if Border is a contender, it could be any of the others to join it. Right now, I see Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, and Mary Queen of Scots being the primary contenders, though Stan & Ollie could make a surprise appearance.

Ultimately, though, it’s the nominees for Special Make-up Effects that usually make the final Oscar list, making Black Panther, Stan & Ollie, and Vice the ones most likely to carry over. Yet, again, you have the Border issue and the Academy’s penchant for showy, non-prosthetic makeup on occasion, putting Bohemian and Mary Queen of Scots back into the mix.