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The Costume Designers Guild, although breaking their awards into three categories, are still an accurate Oscar precursor. They have more chances to get it right, but they are also able to put forth a list of contenders that none may have considered or, in this case, all may have considered. Films that I thought might have been contenders, but are now likely out of the race: Victoria & Abdul, The Beguiled, A Quiet Passion, and Wonderstruck. That first title is the most shocking as almost everyone I know thought it was a guaranteed nominee. While I said it was likely out of the race, it’s possible this was an anomaly.

There are no nominees in the Contemproary category that really feel like they could break into the race with the exception of I, Tonya, which does have the benefit of being very broad and sometimes flashy and/or garish. Typically the Period category is where the bulk of Oscar’s nomination selections come from, and that may be very true this year with Beauty and the Beast and, very unlikely, Blade Runner 2049 the only ones with any chance to carry over. I suspect that Dunkirk and Murder on the Orient Express may be the weaker contenders in the category and could be replaced. Dunkirk, since it’s a major Oscar player, might just make the list anyway with Murder or Greatest Showman, since it was a critical bomb, will probably be replaced by Beauty and the Beast.

The Awards

Best Period Costume Design

Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Best Fantasy Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Thor: Ragnarok
Wonder Woman

Best Contemporary Costume Design

Get Out
I, Tonya
Kingsman: The Golden Circle
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Costume Designers Guild Data

First Awards: 1998 (20)

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