Precursor: 26th Producers Guild Awards (2014)

Of all the films that could have won this award, Birdman didn’t even seem like a strong competitor. Boyhood would have been the juggernaut choice, The Grand Budapest Hotel would have been the slick choice. American Sniper would have been the boffo box office choice and The Imitation Game would have been the Weinstein choice. The PGA hasn’t been wrong since 2006 when they went with little indie-that-could Little Miss Sunshine. In their 26-year history, they’ve been wrong a collective seven times. That’s impressive for a precursor, so you can’t entirely dismiss Birdman‘s selection. Yet, Birdman is missing the Best Editing nomination. For a film like Birdman, that might not hurt, but there are some predictive elements that haven’t been wrong in more than three decades.