Precursor: 31st Cinematographers Guild Nominations (2016)

The first thing to talk about here is the surprise inclusion of Greg Fraiser for Lion. So far, the film has only picked up one nomination for Best Cinematography and that was from Phoenix. This shows how capable Harvey Weinstein is at pushing his favorite films the closer Oscar gets. This might also be Silence‘s only opportunity at the Oscars, or at least we’re seeing more of those who’ve seen it getting a chance to recognize it.

As to contenders that didn’t make it that I’m kind of surprised weren’t at least considered: Hacksaw Ridge, The Handmaiden, Jackie, and Nocturnal Animals, all of which have been cited somewhat frequently. However, there is one other name that absolutely shocks me is not included: Roger Deakins. The Patron Saint of Cinematographers has been nominated just about every time he lenses something. Yet, Hail, Caesar! is not on this list. Less surprising is that Steven Spielberg cinematographer Janusz Kaminski isn’t on the list for The BFG, of course that’s because the film’s Oscar chances are all but nil.

One thing to know about this group is its amazing prognosticative capabilities. They regularly select four of the five Oscar nominees. The got four-of-five last year missing Bridge of Spies with the Academy going The Hateful Eight. The previous, year they did the same naming The Imitation Game over eventual Oscar nominee Ida. They got all five (with a slate of seven nominees) in 2013, four in 2012 and 2011, and then five again in 2010.

So, either this is the final slate or someone will be replaced. I’d like to believe it’s Lion, but I suspect something like Arrival or Moonlight won’t be hip enough for the Academy’s cinematographers and they could be replaecd by The Handmaiden, Hacksaw Ridge, Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, or something else we’ve yet to consider so far this year.