Leave it to the British Academy to throw a few curve balls into the Oscar proceedings. And by curve balls, I don’t mean Moneyball actor Jonah Hill. After three years of 5-for-5 accuracy with Best Film, the BAFTA group is flirting with a bad year. Apart from Oscar guarantees The Artist, The Descendants and The Help, BAFTA nominated likely Oscar no-show (hopefully not) Drive and cusp nominee Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. It’s no surprise Tinker did so well with a British group, but Drive is definitely not the kind of film they’d typically find award-worthy. This sets up the most interesting race for Oscars we’ve seen in some time. Usually you can toss a handful of British-centric nominees from the list for American-friendly ones, but which ones leave and which ones stay will be an interesting discussion for the next week.

In addition to the nominees and/or winners listed below, this year, we’re giving you a quick background on each individual precursor including founding year, first awards year and a glimpse at how many predictions the group has gotten right in the last five years. This data can be found below.

Nominations Tallies

(12) The Artist
(11) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
(9) Hugo
(6) My Week with Marilyn
(5) Tbe Help / War Horse
(4) Drive / Harry Potter / The Iron Lady
(3) The Descendants / Moneyball / Senna / We Need to Talk About Kevin

The Nominations

Best Film

The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Animated Film

The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Rango

Best Director

Tomas Alfredson – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Lynne Ramsay – We Need to Talk About Kevin
Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive
Martin Scorsese – Hugo

Best Actor

George Clooney – The Descendants
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Michael Fassbender – Shame
Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Best Actress

Bérénice Bejo – The Artist
Viola Davis – The Help
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Ides of March
Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Best Supporting Actress

Jessica Chastain – The Help
Judi Dench – My Week with Marilyn
Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
Carey Mulligan – Drive
Octavia Spencer – The Help

Best Original Screenplay

The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Guard
The Iron Lady
Midnight in Paris

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Original Music

The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Best Editing

The Artist
Drive
Hugo
Senna
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Cinematography

The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Best Production Design

The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Best Costume Design

The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Makeup & Hair

The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
The Iron Lady
My Week with Marilyn

Best Sound

The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Best Special Visual Effects

The Adventures of Tintin
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
War Horse

Best Film Not in the English Language

Incendies
Pina
Potiche
A Separation
The Skin I Live In

Best Documentary

George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Project Nim
Senna

Best Short Animation

Abuelas
Bobby Yeah
A Morning Stroll

Best Short Film

Chalk
Mwansa the Great
Only Sound Remains
Pitch Black Heist
Two and Two

Best British Film

My Week with Marilyn
Senna
Shame
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Rising Star

Adam Deacon
Chris Hemsworth
Chris O’Dowd
Eddie Redmayne
Tom Hiddleston

Best Debut of a British Writer, Director or Producer

Attack the Block – Joe Cornish
Black Pond – Will Sharpe, Tom Kingsley, Sarah Brocklehurst
Coriolanus – Ralph Fiennes
Submarine – Richard Ayoade
Tyrannosaur – Paddy Considine, Diarmid Scrimshaw

British Academy of Film & Television Arts Data

Year Founded: 1947
First Awards: 1959 (53)

Precursor Accuracy

KEY:

• Nominee was nominated for the corresponding Oscar
• Nominee was not nominated for a corresponding Oscar
• Total (2010-2009-2008-2007-2006)

Picture: 22 (5-5-5-3-4) N / 3 (0-0-0-2-1) I
Animated Feature: 9 (2-3-1-1-2) N / 6 (1-0-2-2-1) I
Director: 16 (3-3-4-2-4) N / 9 (2-2-1-3-1) I
Actor: 19 (5-4-4-3-3) N / 6 (0-1-1-2-2) I
Actress: 17 (2-3-3-4-5) N / 8 (3-2-2-1-0) I
Supporting Actor: 9 (3-2-3-3-1) N / 13 (2-3-2-2-4) I
Supporting Actress: 13 (2-3-3-3-2) N / 12 (3-2-2-2-3) I
Original Screenplay: 16 (4-4-2-2-4) N / 9 (1-1-3-3-1) I
Adapted Screenplay: 18 (4-5-4-4-1) N / 7 (1-0-1-1-4) I
Original Score: 14 (4-3-3-2-2) N / 11 (1-2-2-3-3) I
Editing: 17 (4-4-4-2-3) N / 8 (1-1-1-3-2) I
Cinematography: 17 (4-3-5-3-2) N / 8 (1-2-0-2-3) I
Art Direction: 14 (4-2-4-2-2) N / 11 (1-3-1-3-3) I
Costume Design: 16 (3-3-3-4-3) N / 9 (2-2-2-1-2) I
Makeup: 5 (0-1-2-1-1) N / 20 (5-4-3-4-4) I
Sound Mixing: 12 (3-3-3-2-1) N / 13 (2-2-2-3-4) I
Visual Effects: 13 (3-3-3-2-2) N / 12 (2-2-2-3-3) I
Foreign Language Film: 6 (1-2-2-0-1) N / 19 (4-3-3-5-4) I
Animated Short Film: 0 (0-0-0-0-0) N / 15 (3-3-3-3-3) I
Live Action Short Film: 0 (0-0-0-0-0) N / 25 (5-5-5-5-5) I