Precursor: 56th American Cinema Editors Nominations (2016)

Of these eighteen nominees, five will likely be nominated by the Academy for Best Film Editing. There are some possible exclusions below that I’ll discuss in a minute, but for the most part, the Academy goes after what the ACE selects. This is also an indication of how strong certain films’ Oscar capabilities are. From my list of Oscar Hopefuls, the titles that do not appear on this list include: Silence, Fences, Jackie, Lion, Loving, Nocturnal Animals, and Sully. Missing this list hurts Silence and Jackie the most. Their Best Picture hopes hinge on down-ballot support and neither received it.

Before doing anything, scratch everything in the documentary and animated categories. Those aren’t going to carry over to Oscar nominations. Of the titles nominated here, but not in the hunt (at least in my opinion) are all in the comedy category, everything except La La Land, which is the only likely winner in that bunch. Hell or High Water is the only surprise among the drama nominees. The film now positions itself well for a Best Picture nomination.