As is usually the case, the big news isn't what was nominated, but what wasn't and whether they were even eligible. The WGA is notorious about failing to allow non-guild members and animated screenwriters from participating. Thus, there are no inclusions for films like Rango and The Adventures of Tintin, the two most likely nominees. Other films missing from the list: The Artist (likely ineligible as I doubt Michel Hazanavicius is a Guild member), A Separation (see note for The Artist), Drive (not certain of its eligibility), Margin Call, The Tree of Life, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (can anyone even stretch the credibility of it being a contender now?), Harry Potter (if it was going to make a series-defining nomination, this would be the group to honor it), The Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse and We Need to Talk About Kevin. I'll post more later about what films actually weren't available as I find the information out.
As for accuracy? You just have to look at their recent history to know that because of their eligibility issues, they rarely get more than three of five nominees, in either category, right. Which ones are most likely? 50/50, Midnight in Paris and Win Win are my guesses from Original Screenplay and while the five in Adapted Screenplay could very well be the nominees, I'm guessing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is most likely to lose out followed very closely by Hugo.
In addition to the nominees and/or winners listed below, this year, we're giving you a quick background on each individual precursor including founding year, first awards year and a glimpse at how many predictions the group has gotten right in the last five years. This data can be found below.
As promised, I have posted the history of this particular guild on my website. You can find it by following this link: Writers Guild of America.
Best Original Screenplay
Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Better This World
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Nostalgia for the Light
Position Among the Stars
Writers Guild of America Data
Year Founded: 1933
First Awards: 1948 (64)
- Nominee was nominated for the corresponding Oscar
- Nominee was not nominated for a corresponding Oscar
- Total (2010-2009-2008-2007-2006)
Original Screenplay: 13 (3-2-1-4-3) N / 12 (2-3-4-1-2) I
Adapted Screenplay: 15 (3-2-4-3-3) N / 10 (2-3-1-2-2) I