One thing’s for certain. Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars is a lock for Moonlight. Beating out the Kenneth Lonergan, the frontrunner in Original Screenplay, suggests Manchester by the Sea is weak; however, it’s really the strength of Moonlight that it suggests. This means a knock-down fight between La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, a contest we now don’t have any reasonable prediction to guide us.

The Awards

Best Original Screenplay

Moonlight (Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Documentary Screenplay

Command and Control (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Writers Guild of America Data

Year Founded: 1933
First Awards: 1948 (69)