Precursor: 69th Writers Guild Nominations (2016)

The Lobster in original and Lion and Elle in adapted. There were other disqualifications, but none of them are major Oscar contenders.

Another sticking point between the WGA and the Academy’s Writers Branch is that they disagree on how to interpret adapted versus original. Two major contenders forced to compete in the adapted category at the Oscars, but nominated for original here are Loving and Moonlight.

So, who was actually injured by this slate of nominations? In original, Jackie had the most difficult day, failing to ignite the way many thought it would. It benefits from the two original-to-adapted swaps, giving it and ineligible The Lobster the best chances of roaring back to life at the Oscars.

On the adapted side, Silence took the biggest hit. In spite of lighter competition, Scorsese’s film, which wasn’t screened for most of the guilds, just couldn’t muster interest from a group with so much else to consider. Love & Friendship and Hacksaw Ridge, both enjoying decent support in the precursors failed to secure nominations, as did Sully and A Monster Calls. You have to drop one of these from adapted because Moonlight is assured a nomination. Deadpool is an easy drop. Nocturnal Animals is also likely to move out, but not for Loving, but for Lion. The other three nominees on the list seem fairly certain.