Sunday, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will hand out its Golden Globe Awards. Below are our predictions, starting with a by-category look, then individual agreements/disagreements and commentary. And we’ve also predicted both Film and Television nominations, so you can follow along all night if you like. In addition, below all of these predictions, we have our individual commentary on the races. The Globes are one of the oldest awards shows out there, so we are giving it plenty of attention…at least in terms of length (not that some of it was avoidable since there are just so many darn categories!)

The Predictions

Film

Drama Picture: The Hurt Locker (2); Inglourious Basterds (1); Up in the Air (1)
Drama Actor: George Clooney (3); Jeff Bridges (1)
Drama Actress: Sandra Bullock (3); Carey Mulligan (1)
Comedy/Musical Picture: (500) Days of Summer (3); The Hangover (1)
Comedy/Musical Actor: Robert Downey Jr. (2); Matt Damon (1); Joseph Gordon-Levitt (1)
Comedy/Musical Actress: Meryl Streep – J&J (4)
Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson (2); Christoph Waltz (2)
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique (3); Anna Kendrick (1)
Director: Kathryn Bigelow (2); Quentin Tarantino (2)
Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (2); Up in the Air (2)
Original Score: Avatar (2); Up (1); Where the Wild Things Are (1)
Original Song: The Weary Kind (3); Winter (1)
Animated Film: Up (4)
Foreign Film: The White Ribbon (3); Broken Embraces (1)

Television

Drama Series: Mad Men (4)
Drama Actor: Jon Hamm (3); Simon Baker (1)
Drama Actress: Glenn Close (3); Julianna Margulies (1)
Comedy/Musical Series: Modern Family (2); Glee (1); 30 Rock (1)
Comedy/Musical Actor: Alec Baldwin (3); Matthew Morrison (1)
Comedy/Musical Actress: Tina Fey (2); Toni Collette (1); Edie Falco (1)
TV Movie: Grey Gardens (3)
TV Movie Actor: Brenda Gleeson (2); Kevin Bacon (1); Kenneth Branagh (1)
TV Movie Actress: Drew Barrymore (2); Jessica Lange (2)
Supporting Actor: Neil Patrick Harris (2); William Hurt (1); John Lithgow (1)
Supporting Actress: Jane Lynch (3); Janet McTeer (1)

Complete Agreement

Animated Film: Up
TV Drama Series: Mad Men
TV Movie: Grey Gardens

Agreements in Three

Wesley, Peter & Tripp

Actress: Sandra Bullock

Wesley, Peter & Wes

Drama Actor: George Clooney
Song: The Weary Kind
TV Drama Actor:Jon Hamm
TV Drama Actress: Glenn Close

Wesley, Tripp & Wes

Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
TV Comedy/Musical Actor: Alec Baldwin
TV Supporting Actress: Jane Lynch

Peter, Tripp & Wes

Comedy/Musical Picture: (500) Days of Summer
Foreign Film: The White Ribbon

Agreements in Two

Wesley & Peter

Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson
Screenplay: Up in the Air
TV Movie Actress: Drew Barrymore

Wesley & Tripp

TV Comedy/Musical Series: Modern Family

Wesley & Wes

Comedy/Musical Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Director: Quentin Tarantino
Score: Avatar
TV Comedy/Musical Actress: Tina Fey

Peter & Tripp

Director: Kathryn Bigelow
TV Movie Actor: Brendan Gleeson

Peter & Wes

Drama Picture: The Hurt Locker
TV Supporting Actor: Neil Patrick Harris

Tripp & Wes

Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
TV Movie Actress: Jessica Lange

Individual Selections

Wesley

Drama Picture: Inglourious Basterds
Comedy/Musical Picture: The Hangover
Foreign Film: Broken Embraces
TV Movie Actor: Kevin Bacon
Supporting Actor: John Lithgow

Peter

Comedy/Musical Actor: Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick
Score: Up
TV Comedy/Musical Series: Glee
TV Comedy/Musical Actor: Matthew Morrison
TV Comedy/Musical Actress: Edie Falco
TV Supporting Actress: Janet McTeer

Tripp

Drama Picture: Up in the Air
Drama Actor: Jeff Bridges
Comedy/Musical Actor: Matt Damon
Score: Where the Wild Things Are
Song: Winter
TV Drama Actor: Simon Baker
TV Drama Actress: Julianna Margulies
TV Comedy/Musical Actress: Toni Collette
TV Supporting Actor: William Hurt

Wes

Drama Actress: Carey Mulligan
TV Comedy/Musical Series: 30 Rock
TV Movie Actor: Kenneth Branagh

The Analyses

Drama Picture

Wesley: For every Titanic, there’s a Sense and Sensibility. The Globes have always gone for what they enjoy, but they’ve also done their best at predicting the Oscars. If Avatar wins here, even if the ultimate Oscar result will be different, people will climb on the Titanic precedent (the Globes were the first major group to recognize the film as Best Picture) and ride that boat to Oscar night. However, I’m going to predict Inglourious Basterds here. Unlike the BFCA, the Globes don’t always try to predict the Oscar, sometimes they just enjoy influencing it, but mostly they like to party. And with the international flavor of Basterds, they can recognize their globe-spanning cred with a critically acclaimed film that isn’t named Avatar.
Peter: As with Oscar, this is a three way race with Avatar and Up in the Air also possible. In fact, with the most nominations and the bigger star power, Up in the Air would seem to be the likelier choice. Maybe it was when the nominations were handed out, but The Hurt Locker seems to have the momentum now.
Tripp: In the ongoing battle between The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air, I see the HFPA going with the Hollywood-friendly star vehicle.
Wes: The Hurt Locker has been cleaning up in the precursors so far this awards season, so I feel that it is probably the film to beat right now. I expect the Globes to follow suit, although there are a couple of other popular films, such as Avatar or Up in the Air, that have a strong case as well. This one just feels right to me.

Drama Actor

Wesley: If there’s one thing the Globes do well, it’s suck up to popular stars. And while Jeff Bridges has been around quite some time, George Clooney is far more interesting to Globe voters. Clooney has two Globes already and I could see them giving it to him again, though I’m not counting Bridges out.
Peter: Yes, it’s Clooney playing Clooney but with an edge we haven’t seen before. He also has the advantage of being in a much better film than his closest competition, Bridges and Firth.
Tripp: I see the Academy going for the career recognition here, much like Mickey Rourke last year, although the star-loving HFPA could give it to Clooney too. But Clooney already has 2 of these, and the HFPA loves an actor who can sing.
Wes: George Clooney is a big movie star turning in a big movie star performance. The star-whoring Globes just won’t be able to resist.

Drama Actress

Wesley: What does Sandra Bullock have that none of the other nominees: super star status. She is an incredibly popular actress and the Globes love to give them trophies.
Peter: The Globes love stars and there’s no bigger one right now than Bullock.
Tripp: When in doubt, the HFPA likes to give this award to a big Hollywood star, and there is no star bigger than Sandra Bullock right now. With two nominations, she should get something here and she isn’t winning in Comedy/Musical.
Wes: A glamorous, up-and-coming young actress with a star-making performance has all the earmarks of a winner in my book.

Comedy/Musical Picture

Wesley: This category has a tendency towards musicals. It also has a trend of critical success. And, on top of that, it loves popular films. With The Hangover falling into two of these categories (critical success and popularity), I think they’ll go that direction. After all, the hardly seen films that have picked up the trophy because of critical success, have all been heavily talked up as Oscar nominees. There aren’t very many of those in this race.
Peter: The best of the bunch. I’d be shocked, shocked I tell you, if they give it to anything else.
Tripp: Really the only of these films that people really seem to love. A no-brainer to me, so watch something else win.
Wes: If there’s one thing I’ve learned about the Globes over the years, it’s that they always go for the most obvious choices in this category. Of the five nominees this year, only (500) Days of Summer has a chance of being nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. A couple of months ago, I would’ve said Nine, but its Best Picture chances have all but dried up, leaving Summer as the only logical choice.

Comedy/Musical Actor

Wesley: There are two strong contenders here based on star quality: Matt Damon and Robert Downey Jr. Neither has won before and both are extremely popular. But with Downey Jr. coming off a tremendously successful two-year period, he stands a stronger chance of winning. But Matt Damon gives a wonderful performance and has a lot of fun, so they could also go that direction just as easily.
Peter: This category is ripe for an upset. Both Michael Stuhlberg (A Serious Man) or Gordon-Levitt are in better received films than the competition. Either could win here.
Tripp: With his two nominations, Damon has had a strong year and an award hear could boost a losing campaign from him.
Wes: This race could go in any direction, quite frankly, but I think that Robert Downey, Jr. will probably emerge victorious in the end. His popularity is at an all-time high, his movie is extremely popular with the masses, and he’s been on a roll for the past couple of years. A Golden Globe would just add the momentum, and do you see the HFPA passing up an opportunity like this? I don’t.

Comedy/Musical Actress

Wesley: She’s being talked up as the Oscar winner, and she’s popular with Globe voters. She has 25 career Globe nominations, 6 wins. She’s very likely to win a 7th if she can beat herself in It’s Complicated to win for Julie & Julia.
Peter: The other nominees can take a bathroom break during this one. No one else has a chance.
Tripp: Whenever there is a performer garnering a lot of awards for a comedic performance she is a lock here, and Streep has certainly been cleaning up the awards. If someone else wins, it will be the biggest shock of the night.
Wes: Meryl’s going to win the Best Actress Oscar this year for this performance. Is this category even worth talking about?

Supporting Actor

Wesley: Christoph Waltz? Who? They don’t avoid people with no name, but Woody Harrelson has come off a strong year and could very well appeal to the group’s populist senses.
Peter: A toss-up between Harrelson and Waltz. Harrelson wins it on star power.
Tripp: A powerhouse performance that is garnering a lot of awards. I could see the Hollywood-known Woody Harrelson winning here, but I don’t think the HFPA will overlook this overseas thespian in his breakthrough American performance.
Wes: A great character actor performance that has been winning everything in sight. Along with Meryl Streep, Waltz’s victory seems like a sure thing to me.

Supporting Actress

Wesley: Mo’Nique gives a strong performance, but she’s also popular in many circles. And although the other nominees could claim measures of popularity, but Mo’Nique has the biggest name recognition.
Peter: The Globes may want to put their own imprint on this one instead of going with the lock-step choice of Mo’Nique.
Tripp: I think she is a lot more vulnerable than in other places, but the Globes like a lot of acting. The Up in the Air girls could sneak in here (can that film really only win one award?), but Mo’Nique has the momentum in her boat.
Wes: I honestly don’t see anybody else winning this one. Other than that, I really don’t have anything to say about this race.

Director

Wesley: The Globe voters are not always that sentimental and although they could go for the frontrunner, I could equally see them giving Best Director to the guy who made their Best Picture winner.
Peter: Unstoppable.
Tripp: The director of the year is cleaning up awards, and nothing is stopping her here. If they do, this is a tighter race than we are expecting.
Wes: I’m going to go out on a limb and say Quentin Tarantino walks away with this one. The Globes have been known in the past to go against the most obvious choices and come up with some surprisingly refreshing recipients in this category, such as Julian Schnabel and Robert Altman. Additionally, Quentin Tarantino just seems like the sort of auteur filmmaker that could come in here and pull off an upset.

Screenplay

Wesley: With Tarantino taking director, they’ll probably give Reitman this trophy to recognize his achievement.
Peter: Reitman’s consolation prize.
Tripp: The Globes tend for the biggest name in this category, and that is Tarantino.
Wes: A big, flashy screenplay by a big-name writer/director seems like a good bet to me. Plus, I’d really love to see Quentin walk away with two Globes.

Score

Wesley: I would love to see another film win, but Avatar just seems to be the kind of score they would pick if they couldn’t pick something completely obscure, which they might well do.
Peter: A close call between Up and The Informant! but Up gets it by virtue of its higher profile.
Tripp: A wild guess, as this category goes all over the place with the Globes. They have given it to favorites, they have given it to films no one has heard of, so why not give it to the film ineligible at the Oscars. Makes as much sense as anything else, if for no other reason that to stick it to the Academy’s dumb rules.
Wes: This will be Avatar’s consolation prize.

Song

Wesley: I could see just about anything happening because, with Score, this is the most unpredictable Globe category every year.
Peter: Not a particularly good song, but delivered with more emotion and heart than any other song this year. Bridges’ character works on it throughout the film and it’s sung, not by Bridges, but by Colin Farrell in the end.
Tripp: Don’t underestimate the rock star at the Globes (see Prince, Bruce, Eddie Vedder, Mick Jagger), even if their films have no life anywhere else (see Prince). So I’ll go with Bono to continue that trend (note that the Globe winner has not gotten an Oscar nod since 2003…maybe Bono doesn’t want this!)
Wes: There are quite a few big names in this category to choose from, from Bono to Paul McCartney to the guy who wrote the Titanic song. My money’s on T-Bone Burnett for “The Weary Kind.”

Animated Film

Wesley: Unlike the BFCA who is going to pick Fantastic Mr. Fox because they think it may take down Pixar after its NYFCC/LAFCA victories, the Globes don’t always care about that. They go for what makes them feel better and since they picked Cars over Happy Feet, the last film to achieve the NY/LA wins, I don’t see why they wouldn’t pick Pixar again.
Peter: It has the most heart of the nominees as well as being the most spectacular and the most fun.
Tripp: Duh.
Wes: Pixar has never lost this award since the inception of this category. I won’t bet against it this year, especially since it will eventually become the first animated film since Beauty and the Beast to be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar.

Foreign Film

Wesley: Only because it’s been highly popular will The White Ribbon win even though it’s not their kind of film. If there’s a more feel-good kind of movie in the lineup, it might well win instead.
Peter: I haven’t seen any of the nominees, but Haneke’s film has the highest profile and that helps here.
Tripp: Haneke’s film has been one of the most praised of the year, and I don’t see the Globes ignoring it.
Wes: The Globes always go with the populist decision in this category, which this year just happens to be The White Ribbon.

TV Drama Series

Wesley: Despite not being a Broadcast network show, Mad Men has proven incredibly popular with critics, the Emmys and the Globes. I see no reason it shouldn’t win.
Peter: Still the best show on TV.
Tripp: It’s on a tear, and it won’t stop here.
Wes: comments pending

TV Drama Actor

Wesley: Jon Hamm seems a strong choice out of this line-up, but with this group, anything can happen.
Peter: He’s due, due, due.
Tripp: Another relative newcomer, and the kind of quirky, foreign-born performer the Globes tend to honor when others ignore them.
Wes: comments pending

TV Drama Actress

Wesley: There are many choices and the Globes have gone in many alternating directions in the past, but Glenn Close won the Emmy and sometimes that’s enough for Globe voters.
Peter: They gave it to Anna Paquin last year so a win for Close would be both be a make-up win and another example of star power proving it’s still strong at the Globes.
Tripp: The Globes like to honor new shows and new performances, and Marguiles is beloved and in a new hit show.
Wes: comments pending

TV Comedy/Musical Series

Wesley: I would love to predict Glee, but while I think it’s a tremendous show, these voters like to go for critically acclaimed shows that come out of nowhere in their first season and while Glee certainly reminds me of that trend, so too does Modern Family. It also seems like the kind of show they would pick just to be considered a “critic’s” choice.
Peter: The freshest new show on TV.
Tripp: Again, they like the new shows and I think this is between Modern Family and Glee. I could see either winning in a coin toss, but Modern Family has the better reviews (and has been more consistent).
Wes: comments pending

TV Comedy/Musical Actor

Wesley: Alec Baldwin is popular and I think he can win this trophy, especially since he’s visibly hosting the Oscars this year and has a strong film performance for Globe voters to tangentially vote for.
Peter: Just as they like rewarding star power, they like to anoint new stars, and isn’t everyone just about sick and tired of seeing Alec Baldwin win everything?
Tripp: Alec Baldwin has seemingly won every award in sight for the past few years, and I don’t see it slowing down here.
Wes: comments pending

TV Comedy/Musical Actress

Wesley: Even though her popularity has started to fade and both Edie Falco and Toni Collette have exceedingly fun performances nominated, I still think Tina Fey can pull off another win.
Peter: It’s cutting edge and they like that.
Tripp: Beloved actress in acclaimed performance, I see her carrying the momentum from her Emmy win here.
Wes: comments pending

TV Movie

Wesley: If only because the story is somewhat famous and delves into the populist political past and although it’s nothing like Bobby, that they nominated that film despite poor critical reception, proves they do like some politics and here they get that plus the glitz and glamor of Drew Barrymore and Jessica Lange.
Peter: More than a movie, it was an event. Nothing else this year comes close.
Tripp: It has been the most acclaimed of the year, and should keep on chugging here.
Wes: comments pending

TV Movie Actor

Wesley: When in doubt (and I am), go for the most popular actor. Kevin Bacon got strong notices for his performances here and he’s probably the closest thing to a celebrity in this line-up. And, if they want to be clever, they can give the TV Drama Actress prize to Kyra Sedgwick and pick him in TV Movie Actor and have a neat little statistic to crow about.
Peter: A superb interpretation of Winston Chruchill.
Tripp: Again, a showy performance the HFPA will love, especially with it’s International flavor.
Wes: comments pending

TV Movie Actress

Wesley: While the contest seems to be between the ladies of Grey Gardens, the question is which will they prefer. The Emmys picked Lange, but I have a feeling Globe voters will go for Barrymore, but it may be a close race.
Peter: Too bad they can’t declare a tie between Barrymore and Lange but Lange has her Emmy. Barrymore will take the Globe.
Tripp: Too juicy of a role for the HFPA to ignore, much like Mo’Nique.
Wes: comments pending

TV Supporting Actor

Wesley: John Lithgow is a popular television actor and is guaranteed to make a funny speech. And although Neil Patrick Harris has a shot as he is likely to do the same thing, I can see the voters picking the older, more established Lithgow.
Peter: Because it’s about time he won something.
Tripp: Acclaimed actors on this show do well with the awards, and I don’t see the Globes passing up an opportunity to honor Hurt and his television comeback.
Wes: comments pending

TV Supporting Actress

Wesley: The show is incredibly popular and whether you hate her character or not, Jane Lynch is one of the reasons Glee works so unbelievably well. And, being a comedienne with a long resume helps give Globe voters an extra chance to get an entertaining speech.
Peter: Mrs. Churchill. She and Gleeson’s Winston made an unforgettable pair, even better than Albert Finney and Vanessa Redgrave in the prequel, The Gathering Storm.
Tripp: Again, the HFPA likes to honor new performance before other groups get to them, and Lynch is the most praised performance of the new batch of comedies this year.
Wes: comments pending