For our fourteenth Rundown article, we look at the lightest category. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Cinematography as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover a category where a Best Picture nomination pretty much assures a win, unless there are multiples.

Best Cinematography

Winner Predictions

• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Mudbound (TB O)
• The Shape of Water

Runner-Up Predictions

• Blade Runner 2049 (TB O)
• Mudbound (WL R) [New]
• The Shape of Water (PP R) [New](TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: The American Society of Cinematographers picked Roger Deakins for the fourth time. He has never won an Oscar. The question is will the Academy once again ignore the ASC choice or will they finally give it to Deakins. The film stands a strong chance, especially after the BAFTA win, but Mudbound wasn’t nominated there. Plus, we don’t know how The Shape of Water will shake out. Will it be a juggernaut or will it be an all-time loser? Right now, I suspect that Mudbound is running second thanks to the historical nomination of Rachel Morrison in Best Cinematography. That could give the film a boost going into the Oscars; however, since names aren’t listed for the technical achievements on the ballot, they may opt for something more familiar, such as Blade Runner 2049 or The Shape of Water.
Peter J. Patrick: Ordinarily, Oscar voters don’t think about the person behind the nomination in the below-the-line categories, but it’s a well-known fact that Roger Deakins, nominated for the 14th time for Blade Runner 2049, is more than overdue. With none of the other nominees an absolute standout in this category, I think he’ll win with the year’s most nominated film, The Shape of Water, probably having the next best chance.
Tripp Burton: Roger Deakins won the ASC Award, but he has won that three other times and not the Oscar. At this point, I will believe he will win the Oscar only after he is on the stage with one in his hands. Instead, I’m guessing that all of the publicity for being the first female nominee in this category will lead to Rachel Morrison being the first female winner for Mudbound.
Thomas La Tourrette: It may finally be Roger Deakins’ year. He has the most nominations (14) without a win by any cinematographer. There have been other years when it seemed like he would finally win and then got passed over, so that could happen again this year. It does not help that Blade Runner was not really loved by critics or fans, but he probably will win this time [Editor’s Note: A- from CinemaScore, 8.2 on IMDb, ranking #148 of all time, 87 at MetaCritic, and 87% on Rotten Tomatoes disprove both of these assertions]. His two top competitors come from very different types of films. Dan Lausten did the romantic work for The Shape of Water, which covers different styles and colors and even some underwater work. Hoyte van Hoytema did the stellar work of battle scenes for Dunkirk, and war movies often do well here. Add into the mix Rachel Morrison, the first nominated female in this category, for her work on Mudbound, and the picture gets more complicated. I think the only film that stands no chance of winning is Darkest Hour, but that leaves four strong competitors and cases could be made for each of them to win. Mudbound was bleak and beautiful, and in the year of #metoo, giving the award to a woman, especially one so deserving, would go over well. If it seemed that The Shape of Water was going to sweep, it would not be surprising if it took cinematography as well. However, I am not certain it will do a big sweep, and, after the BAFTAs, the win for Best Picture even seems in doubt. The technical work of Dunkirk was highly lauded and that could carry over to cinematography as it may win film editing and one or two of the sound awards. And then there is Blade Runner, which was visually lovely to watch even if it was way too long. Deakins also won the cinematographer’s guild award, but he has won it before and then not taken home the Oscar. So what will win? Roger Deakins should finally claim an Oscar, but he could easily be upset by The Shape of Water or Dunkirk. It will be an interesting race.

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