For our nineteenth Rundown article, we look at the category responsible for clothing. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Costume Design as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover the only category that can have no more than three nominees.

Best Costume Design

Winner Predictions

• Beauty and the Beast (WL O) (PP R) [New]
• Darkest Hour
• Phantom Thread (TL O)
• The Shape of Water (TB R) [New]
• Victoria & Abdul

Runner-Up Predictions

• Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New]
• The Shape of Water (TL O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: With none of the perceived frontrunners winning the Costume Designers Guild, we’re left to wonder if either Phantom Thread or Beauty and the Beast are really frontrunners or if either has been overestimated in terms of its chances. I’m torn between the two films and could easily see either film winning. Clearly Phantom Thread has a lot of fans, as well as a BAFTA award, but Academy voters love bold and flashy most of the time, so I’m giving the victory to Beauty and the Beast by a hair over Phantom Thread.
Peter J. Patrick: Voters don’t usually pay attention to the names of the designers, but it should be noted anyway that the top contenders, Jacqueline Durran for Beauty and the Beast and Mark Bridges for Phantom Thread are both prior winners, she for Anna Karenina and he for The Artist. She is also nominated this year for Darkest Hour. It’s going to be close, but I suspect she’ll win for her multiplicity of designs.
Tripp Burton: The Shape of Water winning the Costume Design Guild award over the fashion-centric Phantom Thread could have been an endorsement of a film they like a lot, or it could have been a sign that this category at the Oscars will be a part of the sweep The Shape of Water could be taking. Remember that films about the fashion world — think I Am Love or The Devil Wears Prada — don’t always do well here, but then again those films didn’t have the overall nomination haul and support of Paul Thomas Anderson’s film. I think one of those two films is winning the Oscar, but it could be neck-and-neck all the way to the envelope opening.
Thomas La Tourrette: Even though it did not win the guild award for period costume, I believe that Phantom Thread will win the Oscar. A film about the fashion industry seems likely to win. If Beauty and the Beast had won for best fantasy costumes, then it might be in the lead, but it also lost. That makes The Shape of Water, the guild winner for period costume, as my second choice. I do not think that either Darkest Hour or Victoria & Abdul will win for their period costumes, so I will stick with my original guess and go with Phantom Thread to win.

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