For our eighteenth Rundown article, we look at the men and women responsible for getting the project from paper to screen. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Directing as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover a category that often goes hand-in-hand with a category we’ve previously covered and infrequently matches Best Picture.

Best Director

Winner Predictions

• Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan
• Get Out – Jordan Peele
• Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
• Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson
• The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (TL O)
• Get Out – Jordan Peele (WL R) [New] (TB R) [New]
• Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: Guillermo del Toro has swept through the late-year awards for Best Director, which suggests that he’s sure to win the Oscar. Upsets can happen, but I doubt there’s really anything that can get in his way.
Peter J. Patrick: While Best Picture may still be up in the air, it’s practically a foregone conclusion that Best Director will go to DGA winner Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water. If there is to be an upset, my guess would be Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird, but it would be a long shot at this point.
Tripp Burton: No matter how confusing the Best Picture race has been, and how many different films have succeeded at different places, Guillermo del Toro has pretty much run the field in terms of winning Best Director prize. The beloved director should easily win here, regardless of the Best Picture outcome.
Thomas La Tourrette: Even as it seems that there is not as much love for The Shape of Water as it first looked like, I do believe that del Toro will easily win the Oscar for Best Directing. He has the most precursor awards, especially the DGA and BAFTA, and those should ensure his win. The fact that the Producers Guild also went for his film should cement him in the winner’s position. He is beloved in Hollywood and has been adept at many different genres. Originally it looked like Christopher Nolan’s to lose, and somehow he did. Whether Dunkirk opened too early for it still to be a contender, I do not know, but it does not have the same propulsion now that it did earlier on. It felt that Nolan was going to finally win an Oscar for directing, but the wind has gone out of his sails. As Nolan’s star fell, del Toro’s rose and it has seemed to stay that way. Both Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele have their fans and would like to see one of them become the second woman or first African American to win this award, but that seems unlikely to happen. I would say that Paul Thomas Anderson stands no chance of winning, but I would have said the same about his getting nominated. Still, I would put him in last place. Unless there is a sudden surge in support for Nolan, del Toro will easily win this.

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