For our first Rundown article, we look into categories featuring stories drawn from real life. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Feature and Best Documentary Short Subject as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover the category where the most nominated living individual picked up his 51st nomination.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
• Faces Places (WL O) (TL O)
• Icarus
• Last Men in Aleppo (PP O)
• Strong Island (TB O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (WL O) (TB R) [New]
• Icarus (TL O)
• Last Men in Aleppo (PP R) [New]

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: With Jane out of the race, this competition becomes much more difficult to gauge. While Yance Ford is the first trans director nominated, is that enough to bolster Strong Island‘s chances? Is the Syrian war issue significant enough to earn Last Men in Aleppo an award? Can Agnès Varda cap an impressive cinematic career to win for a non-traditional Documentary with Faces Places? Will the timeliness of the Russian doping scandal against the backdrop of this year’s Olympics where the Russian team has been banned benefit Icarus? Or will the hypocrisy of large financial institutions getting away with malfeasance while smaller ones become sacrificial lambs give legendary Steve James his first win for Abacus? There are a lot of factors at play here. While I have currently placed Faces Places at the top of the ballot, any of the others could easily win while leaning towards Abacus or Aleppo as the most likely to upset.
Peter J. Patrick: Agnès Varda, who has been making movies for more than sixty years, won an honorary Oscar in November and now gets her first nomination at the age of 89 for Faces Places, making her the sentimental favorite over a strong list of competitors. Of the others, I would think Last Men in Aleppo would be the one to beat.
Tripp Burton: Like many, I had figured that this was Jane’s category to lose, so when that frontrunner wasn’t even nominated, it made this category much harder to predict. The Syria documentary Last Men in Aleppo feels timely, but it also covers the same subject matter as last year’s documentary short winner, so it may feel redundant. Recent Honorary Oscar winner Agnès Varda is finally nominated for Faces Places, but it isn’t as heavy or “important” as most winning films here. Icarus has Netflix behind it, and is an engaging personal look at steroids, but I think this is down to two filmmakers who have very different stories that got them here: transgender first-time documentarian Yance Ford, whose personal crime drama Strong Island has won many precursors already, and the never-won legendary documentarian Steve James, whose Abacus is a well-told exploration of the housing bubble crisis.
Thomas La Tourrette: Having not seen any of the nominees yet puts me at a disadvantage for this one. The two films that had won the most precursors, Jane and City of Ghosts, were not nominated, so it can be anyone’s guess. Agnès Varda, who was one of the honorary Oscar recipients last year, is one of the directors of Faces Places, which might be a way to honor her with a competitive trophy. It is probably the least controversial of the nominees which could also help it. Strong critics’ and audiences’ reactions to it make me think it could be the winner. Icarus, which is about the Russian doping scandal at the Olympics, is very topical and that could lend it support. It is the only nominee with both BAFTA and DGA noms, which will also help. Last Men in Aleppo might also make the grade, but the Academy has not given that many awards in feature documentaries to war films of late. I could see both Abacus and Strong Island not making the grade. I imagine that the charming Faces Places will win, though Icarus will be close.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• Edith + Eddie (PP R) [New] (TB O)
• Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
• Heroin(e) (WL O) (TL O)
• Knife Skills
• Traffic Stop

Runner-Up Predictions

• Edith + Eddie (WL R) [New] (TL O)
• Heroin(e) (PP R) [New]
• Traffic Stop (TB R) [New]

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: Edith+Eddie explores life for interracial newlyweds (at the ages of 96 and 95); Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 explores artistic inspiration for those with mental disorders; Heroin(e) tackles the opioid crisis and then women who fight to break the cycle of addiction; Knife Skills tackles the struggle to start a world class restaurant staffed entirely by ex-cons; and Traffic Stop looks at a harrowing encounter between a black woman and a copy for a simple traffic stop. These topics are so varied that it’s hard to know which the Academy will truly fall for. Those voting in this category will likely be older, so Edith+Eddie could be a prime candidate for a win. However, the rules changed and voters can now view the nominees in the comfort of their own homes, which gives more populist or more political stories a bit more of a bump. Heroin(e) is not only the most compelling title on the list, but it has the most potential to speak to voters of multiple backgrounds. I’m leaning towards that film, but Edith+Eddie is still likely to resonate both with older voters and voters looking to make a political statement, though Traffic Stop could also accomplish that goal.
Peter J. Patrick: Let’s go with sentiment for this one, too, and say that Edith + Eddie, about interracial newlyweds in their late 90s is going to be hard to beat. Its closest competition might well be the drug addiction turmoil explored in Heroin(e).
Tripp Burton: It is always hard to judge where the voters heads are in this. Thomas Lennon is a previous Oscar winner, but his film feels the least timely of all the nominees. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 looks at an artist dealing with mental illness and is the most emotional. Netflix won this last year, and they are back with Heroin(e), which is both timely and devastating. Traffic Stop, about race and the police, feels just as timely and devastating. Edith+Eddie, a festival hit about an interracial elderly couple dealing with prejudice today, is heart-warming, timely, and has Cher backing it loudly. Any of these could win, but I’m leaning towards Edith+Eddie.
Thomas La Tourrette: Once again I have not seen these yet. Heroin(e) about a West Virginia town that becomes ground zero for the opioid epidemic sounds perfect for the type of film that often wins. If it does not, then the more feel-good Edith+Eddie might be the likely winner. That one does have the heft of having Cher as one of the film’s producers, which could propel it on to victory. Heaven… is about an artist, and those rarely go on to win. I will predict that the more serious Heroin(e) will win over Edith+Eddie.

KEY: