The Rundown 2018: Picture

For our twentieth Rundown article, we look at the final category. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

  • Black Panther
  • BlacKkKlansman
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • The Favourite
  • Green Book (WL F) [New] (PP O)
  • Roma (TB O) (TL R) [New]
  • A Star Is Born
  • Vice

Runner-Up Predictions

  • BlacKkKlansman (TB O)
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (PP R) [New]
  • Roma (WL F) [New]

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)


Wesley Lovell: This is by far the toughest category of the year and I cannot say too much about it that I haven’t already written. Currently, I have several films on the cusp of winning with Roma the current frontrunner. Green Book will have a lot of older Academy voters turning out in droves, which could help the film with other titles splitting votes between more progressive selections.
Peter J. Patrick: If the award went to the film with the most first place votes, it would probably go to Roma with BlackKklansman its closest runner-up, but it generally doesn’t go that way under the preferential, weighted ballot system. It only goes to the film with the most first place votes if that film gets 50% plus 1 of the first place votes submitted. The more likely winner is the film which meets that criteria by adding votes further down on the list which get added to the most prominent front-runners on the first ballot. Green Book and The Favourite are both considered to be within striking distance of doing that. Of the two, I think Green Book has the most support, but surprises do occur. With the momentum that Bohemian Rhapsody has been picking up, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see it pull off a come-from-behind win.
Tripp Burton: At this point, with the guilds so split up and front-runners so jumbled, there isn’t a lot that would surprise me here. You could make a case that Green Book or Black Panther can win here, even Bohemian Rhapsody, but in the end, this looks like a race between Roma and BlackKklansman. With a preferential ballot, those are the two that seem the most universally praised that could pick up enough second and third place votes to win.
Thomas La Tourrette: Cases could be made for almost any of the nominees to win. I honestly cannot remember a year when best picture felt so open. The precursors have been all over the place and have muddied the race more than cleared up anything. Roma has the BAFTA and a lot of other wins for both picture and foreign language film. The BAFTA win is what makes me feel it might triumph. The Academy has never given this award to a foreign film before, which is one reason I am just not sure of it winning. That said, nothing else truly feels poised to take its place. Green Book does have wins from the Producers Guild and the Golden Globes. Black Panther has the Screen Actors Guild Award for best ensemble. Bohemian Rhapsody also took home a Golden Globe. Much good has been written about these, but the films also have their detractors. Vice seems the least likely winner. The Favourite was interesting, but not exactly best picture material. A Star Is Born was better, but did not really feel like a best picture. Neither did Bohemian Rhapsody. I would put Black Panther into the same category, but it seems to have caught on with people in ways that no other superhero film has, look at its seven nominations. The fact that it won the SAG, does show support. However, unless it starts a major sweep in the technical awards, I just do not see it winning best picture. BlacKkKlansman would perhaps be my choice, but it just has not done that well in the precursors. I just do not think it has garnered the support it needs to win, unless there is a lingering sentiment for writer/director Spike Lee. That does not seem likely to happen. Green Book is the easy choice. It was an enjoyable film, with two strong performances from its leads. It has also been well liked by audiences, which will help it. But the lack of a directing nom may preclude it from winning. That does not happen often, though Argo did it not that long ago, though I think it won because of that. If Ben Affleck had been nominated, I think it would have gone differently. This leaves Roma, which is greatly beloved by the critics, though not so much by audiences. I think Roma may well win, though I am just not certain why.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Prediction
(R) = Rundown Series

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