80th Academy Awards (2007): Oscar Morning

On Tuesday morning, January 22, 2008, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be announcing nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards. Most people out there will probably wake up in the morning, turn on the morning chat shows and hear about the nominations for the first time.

For the obsessed and dedicated, the ritual will be far more rewarding and fun. They are the ones who make the Oscars into a sport, providing analysis before the event and grousing afterwards.

At around 5:30am Pacific (8:30 Eastern, 7:30 Central), the Academy Awards nominations will be presented live (usually on E! Entertainment Television). Not all 24 (maybe 25 this year) categories will be announced in that early-morning presentation. Only ten will be revealed, but those ten are probably the most important in terms of mainstream recognition as the remainder of categories do little more than augment a film’s nomination tally.

So, for those who are new to the festivities, I’d like to provide a primer on how to watch and handicap the nominations as they are announced.

The announcement of the nominations is handled by the president of the Academy, Sid Ganis, and one other past Oscar nominee or winner (usually winner, but they’ve had to compromise in past years). That individual hasn’t been named yet, but should be soon.

The ten categories are presented in a generally-set order each year. While the order of Actor or Actress in the lead and supporting categories on rare occasions flips, this is my best guess at how they’ll be aligned. All categories are announced alphabetically with the acting categories announced based on the nominee’s last name while all others are announced alphabetically by film.

Below each category description and analysis, you’ll see a list of nominees and the order they will be announced in. Those in ()’s are potential spoilers to the ones also listed.

After you’ve read my analysis, you’ll find a list, alphabetically of all the major contenders. My selections will be highlighted and you can even add your own and then check them off as the nods are announced. Although I try to include every possibility, I do miss a few every year, so you may have to do some hasty write-ins, but I’ve provided extra lines for such an occasion.

Best Supporting Actor

This year’s Supporting Actor lineup is packed with big names and smaller ones that many audiences probably haven’t heard of. Like the rest of the categories, it will be a blend of critic’s favorites and Hollywood icons.

The first name read-off will be either Casey Affleck or Javier Bardem. If Affleck, then Bardem will be second followed by Philip Seymour Hoffman. If Affleck is left off, it’s likely Paul Dano will be second and Hoffman third. After Hoffman should be Hal Holbrook followed by Tom Wilkinson.

Tommy Lee Jones may feature in this race alongside castmate Bardem. If so, he will follow Holbrook. If Max von Sydow makes it in after Holbrook or Hoffman (as Holbrook isn’t a locked nod as yet), then The Diving Bell and the Butterfly will be one of the five nominees for Best Picture almost guaranteed.

Other actors nominated here that could point to things further on in the nominations announcement are Russell Crowe, meaning American Gangster’s probably a Best Pic nominee and Alan Rickman, tossing Sweeney Todd into the top five films of the year.

Order: Affleck, Bardem, (Crowe), (Dano), Holbrook, Jones, (Rickman), (von Sydow), Wilkinson.

Best Supporting Actress

If Supporting Actor seems tight, just imagine this jam-packed line-up for Best Supporting Actress.

The first name off the tip of the presenters tongue should be Cate Blanchett. If not, there will be some big shocked howls in the crowd. Ruby Dee may follow. If she does, then I would suggest American Gangster’s shot at a Best Picture nod is still pretty solid. A nomination following for Romola Garai may point to an Atonement sweep of nominations.

Catherine Keener is definitely going to fit in there, if not behind Blanchett then behind Dee. Vanessa Redgrave might also point to an Atonement sweep and if she and Garai are included, then Ronan might also follow and we’ll have the first time since The Godfather, Part II in 1974 that three nominees placed in the same category for the same film. Saoirse Ronan is a very good possibility to follow Keener, but won’t tell us much about Atonement’s chances at Best Picture.

Amy Ryan is likely to fall in line behind and then Tilda Swinton should finish things off. If Jennifer Garner ends the list, the Juno will have done much better than expected and a Best Picture nomination is not only assured, but a win might even be in the making. And if Marisa Tomei comes in last, look for a Best Director nod coming to Sidney Lumet. There’s also a possibility that if No Country for Old Men does well, Kelly MacDonald could benefit from the push and earn a nod.

Order: Blanchett, (Dee), (Garai), (Garner), Keener, (MacDonald), (Redgrave), Ronan, Ryan, Swinton, (Tomei)

Best Actor

Another tightly packed race makes its way to the Best Actor lineup.

The big news of the morning may very well be if Mathieu Amalric is nommed for his performance in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. If he does get the first announce, then expect the film to also place in Best Picture. However, the more likely occurrence is George Clooney to start off the list. A Josh Brolin inclusion will sent ripples of excitement through the audience and may suggest No Country for Old Men will top the nomination tallies.

The likely second name is Daniel Day-Lewis. His exclusion would be the biggest shock of the day, so count him in. Next may be either Ryan Gosling or Johnny Depp. Depp’s film has been ignored by virtually ever precursor out there, but some still believe he’s got a shot. Gosling, on the other hand, may suffer from a smaller film, which could lead to his exclusion. If he’s in, then his film will be up for Original Screenplay. Following that could be Emile Hirsch pointing to a Best Picture nomination for his film.

Frank Langella’s name isn’t carrying the same bells and whistles it was when he was quietly amassing runner-up trophies. He could be left off altogether in favor of some younger candidates. One of those could be James McAvoy who may benefit here from an Atonement sweep. Viggo Mortensen has received praise, but seemingly less attention as the days go by, but it’s very likely he’ll finish out the morning’s list.

Gordon Pinsent would be another cheer-worthy announcement and could come last, but if Denzel Washington makes it in for American Gangster, then the film will also be hard to stop come Best Picture nomination time.

Order: (Amalric), (Brolin), Clooney, Day-Lewis, (Depp), (Gosling), Hirsch, Langella, (McAvoy), Mortensen, (Pinsent), (Washington)

Best Actress

There’s a bit less drama in the Lead Actress category with three nearly guaranteed nominees and one very likely one.

The first name to be read off should be Julie Christie, but there’s a growing likelihood that Cate Blanchett could lead things off or even Amy Adams. The best lead off might even be Nikki Blonsky with a surprise nomination. After Christie, who’s one of the nearly guaranteed nominees will be another, Marion Cotillard.

Following Cotillard is the very likely nominee Angelina Jolie who could be followed by a surprise Keira Knightley nod. Knightley’s nomination would again signal that Atonement’s a factor in the Best Picture race. Laura Linney’s also a good bet for a nomination, but not anywhere near a cinch for one. Ellen Page is nearly guaranteed a nomination as well. Another couple of surprises could be Keri Russell, a double nod for Tilda Swinton (to go with her Supporting Actress bid) or Tang Wei.

So, while the category may seem pretty full and four slots almost certain, there’s a big tousle for fifth. Helena Bonham Carter’s chances at a nod hinge on the Academy going for a Sweeney Sweep, which is a growing unlikelihood.

Order: (Adams), (Blanchett), (Blonsky), (Carter), Christie, Cotillard, Jolie, (Knightley), Linney, Page, (Russell), (Swinton), (Tang)

Best Director

There are three names almost certain to be announced. Diving Bell, No Country and There Will Be Blood. The question is which names will get read in between.

American Gangster could lead off the list. If it does, expect a corresponding Best Picture nomination. Atonement leading off the list or following Gangster would also indicate a Best Picture nomination. Away from Her leading off the list would send critics into a rapturous fit.

Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead could also precede Diving Bell or even replace it all together. If there it’s the third name read, Schnabel will probably be out. Following Diving Bell, will either be Eastern Promises, Into the Wild, Juno or Michael Clayton. Eastern Promises is the only one that would be excluded from a Best Picture nomination if it were announced.

If there are three names already, the last two will be No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. If there are only two, then it will be No Country for Old Men followed by either Sweeney Todd or There Will Be Blood. If it’s not Sweeney Todd, then the fifth film will be Zodiac.

Order: (Gangster), (Atonement), (Away from Her), (Before the Devil), Diving Bell, (Eastern Promises), Into the Wild, (Juno), Michael Clayton, No Country, (Sweeney Todd), There Will Be Blood, (Zodiac)

Best Original Screenplay

Only two Best Picture contenders feature in the Original Screenplay category, which means it may be relatively open.

Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead could lead off, but its chances have dwindled in recent days. Eastern Promises is in a similar position. It could be that Juno is the first one announced, which means we’ve probably got Lars and the Real Girl following then a for sure Michael Clayton, a very likely Ratatouille and the weakened chances for The Savages.

Other potential nominees here would be Knocked Up, which could replace Lars in the above order and Once which would follow Michael Clayton. These are the only ones that seem to have any shot, though expect some surprises if any two or three of these don’t show up.

Order: (Before the Devil), (Eastern Promises), Juno, (Knocked Up), Lars, Michael Clayton, (Once), Ratatouille, The Savages

Best Adapted Screenplay

The race for Adapted Screenplay comes down to one relatively real fact: Best Picture. For the first time in some years, this category is filled with contenders that are also champing at the bit to become a Best Picture nominee.

There’s a chance that the first one or two films read out will start with the scarlet letter. American Gangster, The Assassination of Jesse James, Atonement and Away from Her are all possibilities. Away from Her and Assassination have the least chances. If Gangster picks up a nod here, Best Picture is probably a good bet. The same thought follows if Atonement is picked. If both are, expect some surprised gasps.

Barring an A at the top, the next name on the list is likely to be The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Its writer already has an Oscar, which may bolster his chances of a repeat nod. Following that may be Sean Penn’s Into the Wild. Then, we’ll have No Country for Old Men for sure, the only true lock in this category.

Next will either be a surprise and a portent of a Best Pic or There Will Be Blood. Sweeney Todd fits between No Country and Blood if it’s going to happen. If by the time There Will Be Blood is announced and there are only four films named to that point, Zodiac will undoubtedly fill out the category.

Order: (American Gangster), (Assassination of Jesse James), (Atonement), (Away from Her), Diving Bell, Into the Wild, No Country, There Will Be Blood, Zodiac

Best Foreign Language Film

With the recent announcement of a slimmed-down list of nine films competing to be nominated, the question is mostly which one won’t be listed. However, we do know a few that will likely get in.

The Counterfeiters is a World War II film about Jews, which means it’ll be in. Whether it’s first or second depends on if enough voters think Beaufort deserves to represent Israel after the country’s original submission was rejected.

Canada is on a roll and with Denys Arcand’s The Barbarian Invasions a previous winner, so the follow up Days of Darkness should repeat a nod. Mongol may have some epic sweep and sweep the former Russian republic of Kazakhstan into the nominations circle, but former parent Russia also has a chance of being nommed for 12.

The Unknown may get a nod simply to sustain Italy’s long history of nominations while Brazil’s The Year My Parents Went on Vacation highlights a renaissance that seems to be coming from that country.

Order: (Beaufort), Counterfeiters, Days of Darkness, (Katyn), Mongol, (The Trap), 12, (The Unknown), The Year…

Best Animated Film

There are two virtual locks in this category with one spot wildly unpredictable, though critics are hoping for one general outcome.

The two near-guarantees are separated only by Shrek the Third, which may follow the first two films to a nod. Ratatouille and The Simpsons Movie will either be preceded by or followed by another film.

The first film could be either Bee Movie, Beowulf, Meet the Robinsons or Persepolis. Even Alvin and the Chipmunks may have a shot. Persepolis is the film most are predicting to lead off the list, but any other film getting announced before it would mean it’s out. If it does get mentioned after another film, then the third film will be Ratatouille. If Ratatouille and Simpsons are named first, then the followup will probably be Surf’s Up.

Order: (Alvin), (Bee Movie), (Beowulf), (Robinsons), Persepolis, Ratatouille, (Shrek), Simpsons Movie, (Surf’s Up)

Best Picture

There are three films we expect more than any others to be nominated in Best Picture. Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. The question is which two other films will fill the five-slotted category.

At this point, what gets nominated will be based on a number of different announcements previously.

For American Gangster to go first, it must have a companion Director and/or Screenplay nomination or an acting nomination other than Ruby Dee.

For Atonement, Director and/or Screenplay are pretty much required, though a nod to James McAvoy or Keira Knightley or more than just Saoirse Ronan in the acting categories may also suggest the film gets a Best Picture nod.

For The Diving Bell and the Butterfly to get announced, it only needs a Director spot, but if Mathieu Amalric’s a nominee, then this film’s guaranteed a slot.

For Into the Wild to enter in one of the first three spots, it will need a Director’s nod for Sean Penn. Emile Hirsch getting a nod will foreshadow this one.

For Juno to be included, there’s nothing required other than a Screenplay and Actress nod. If Jason Reitman’s nominated, then this film should appear as a nominee for Best Picture.

For Michael Clayton to be excluded, it would need to fail to obtain a Screenplay nomination and more than one of its actors fail to appear. Otherwise, a trio of nominations in acting and a Directing nod will tell us if this pic makes it.

For No Country for Old Men not to be nominated, hell would probably have to have frozen over. It’s the only truly assured nominee. Its chances at winning are determined by how many acting nods it gets. If there’s only one for Javier Bardem, it’s not as well liked as we thought. If Kelly MacDonald or Tommy Lee Jones or Josh Brolin get nods, then it’s a solid contender.

For Sweeney Todd to get in, only two film can have been announced before No Country. If Johnny Depp and Tim Burton are both nominated, then this nod is almost a foregone conclusion, but after Dreamgirls last year, it could still be excluded.

For There Will Be Blood to be nominated, there must only be four other nominees prior (really, who didn’t know that?). But if it picks up nods in lead and supporting actor and director and screenplay, it’s mention here is almost assured.

For Zodiac to be the fifth selection, it will need nods for screenplay and directing. Otherwise, it’s not going to make it and There Will Be Blood will be read last.

Order: (Gangster), (Atonement), (Diving Bell), Into the Wild, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country, (Sweeney), There Will Be Blood, (Zodiac)

So that’s it. That’s how the morning will go and you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure it out, though paying attention as the nods are announced will certainly help.