Looking at Film from Every Angle

Archive: Site Updates

2006

About Me

I’m 30 years old now. It’s hard to believe I was 20 when I started this site but there it is. I was born, raised and still live in Springfield, MO. I received my BS in Communications/Mass Media from Southwest Missouri State University (recently changed to Missouri State University) with an Emphasis in Film Studies.

My first encounter with the Academy Awards was in 1989 at the tender age of 14. I didn’t get to the movies very often, but I heard spectacular things about a film called Driving Miss Daisy and went to see the film. I remember sitting in the Battlefield Mall 6 (now closed, as are many of Springfield’s long lost theaters) and telling my mother that it was nominated for the Academy Awards.

The night of the Academy Awards, I remember being captivated by the sheer excitement of wanting my favorite film to win. When it did, I accidentally squeezed our dog too hard and made him yelp. From that point forward, I was hooked. I started following the Awards closely.

In 1996, as the internet grew in popularity, I decided to create my own website, having just gotten access to the ‘net for the first time. I started with Geocities. It was a free hosting site and I was just a kid (so 20 isn’t really a kid anymore, but I still felt like it), so I had no money. It was very rudimentary. I learned .html coding just so I could create the site.

Now, it’s 10 years on and I’m still running the site. I’ve had my domain name registered for about 5 years now and have had many different hosts since then. While my online history hasn’t always been a pleasant one, I won’t soon forget the power this medium has. I’ve made friends around the world, I’ve grown and developed into a fantastic film critic (IMO).

I joined the Online Film Critics Society in 1997 when it was founded. This year, I was elected to the Governing Committee of the organization and I’m focusing efforts in both directions. Success is fleeting and shortly after being elected to the Governing Committee, it was announced that my day job, after 5 years, was being terminated. They were shipping our jobs to the Philippines. It’s not a pleasant change of events but it’s given me a bit of time to focus my efforts on redesigning my site and attempting to make a living out of my passion.

If you want to help support Cinema Sight, you’re welcome to do so. I present my website free of charge, so there is no requirement. However, if you do want to give your support. Words of encouragement are fantastic but donations will help me keep my site operational. In the menu on the left site is a PayPal button.

-Wesley Lovell (May 22, 2006)

79th Academy Awards Key Dates

The Key Dates for the 79th Annual Academy Awards has been announced.

  • Friday, December 1, 2006: Official Screen Credits Forms Due
  • Tuesday, December 26, 2006: Nominations ballots mailed
  • Saturday, January 13, 2007: Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PST
  • Tuesday, January 23, 2007: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PST, Samuel Goldwyn Theater
  • Wednesday, January 31, 2007: Final ballots mailed
  • Monday, February 5, 2007: Nominees Luncheon
  • Saturday, February 10, 2007: Scientific and Technical Awards Dinner
  • Tuesday, February 20, 2007: Final polls close 5 p.m. PST
  • Sunday, February 25, 2007: 79th Annual Academy Awards Presentation

-Wesley Lovell (May 22, 2006)

10 Years and a New Design

In 1996, I started my own website devoted to the Academy Awards and its history. I’ve gone through many changes over the years but in celebration of my 10th Anniversary, I thought I’d introduce my first new design in three years.

Mostly everything remains. The Academy Award nominations and winners have been removed because the Academy has created a wonderful search engine that does what I wanted to do better. You can find a link in the new Resources section. There, you can also find links to various major entertainment organizations as well as other Oscar-themed sites.

The Reviews section has been updated. I’ve organized much of the information in a way that should make it easier to find what you’re looking for. The Articles section has been added. This past year, I wrote my first detailed article on the Oscar race. It was fairly well received, so periodically, I’ll be adding new articles to that section.

Award History is the modified new Precursor History section. This will go over the various awards with comparisons to the Academy Awards. Site History will look back at the last 9 years of predictions, precursors and other information I’ve provided to my readers over the years.

New Releases is my newest offering. In an effort to make sure you have access to the latest information, this section will feature a calendar of upcoming film releases, DVD releases, books, music and more.

So, welcome to OG X!

-Wesley Lovell (May 22, 2006)

Changes to this Year’s Oscar Hopefuls

Not surprisingly, it’s only been a month and there have already been changes. Thanks to the Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board participants for pointing out a few errors (Jude Law and Sean Penn have been swapped) and making a few suggestions (welcome to the list Goya’s Ghosts and The History Boys). I have also, based on the wide array of potential Animated Film nominees, increased my predictions for that catgegory to five.

A few other changes been made but none are very earth shattering. The major change came from the Academy this week. Two changes were made but only one affects this Hopefuls list (the Foreign Language Film category will now be screened in two stages allowing New York-based members to participate in the process).

The major change is that the Sound Editing category (primarily for sound effects) has been increased to five nominees and will no longer be a "bake-off" like the Makeup and Visual Effects categories still are (get your act together, Academy…Sound Editing was not the category that needed the change…Visual Effects was). This has now been reflected in the Hopefuls list with a new slate of picks.

Check out my Hopefuls list here.

-Wesley Lovell (July 7, 2006)

A Much Needed Update

It has been unfortunate that I have been so far behind in updating my site. A lot of it is redesign. Some of it is laziness. Regardless of thse facts, I’m going to try and start speeding up review posting with approximately five per week for the next two or three weeks. This week, you actually get six. Cars, The Da Vinci Code, Doogal, The Lake House, Pirates of the Caribbean 2 and Superman Returns. Check out the Reviews page for more information.

-Wesley Lovell (July 25, 2006)

Site History and Oscar Hopefuls Update

When this site was redesigned, a few aspects fell down a deep, dark chasm from which there is no return. I had full intentions of updating my Site History area with the previous years’ Academy Awards race data (including nomination and winner predictions, past foreign language film entries, precursors and more); However, the fates conspired against me and until recently, I had forgotten all about them.

I have begun a nearly daily update of this section. It started on Tuesday when I updated the News section, I also took time to fix some problems with the 78th Academy Awards Section. I also updated the 76th entry. Wednesday, I updated the 75th year’s data. Today, you will find the 74th Academy Awards area updated along with a special update to this year’s Oscar Hopefuls.

Yesterday, I put up a blurb for my August edition of the Oscar Hopefuls. However, in looking at my new predictions, it appears they aren’t very spectacular as no major release dates have been changed or updated and no new projects have worked their way into the light. Additionally, what few change I have made are considerably minor.

Dreamgirls has now shifted to the Best Picture leader as Clint Eastwood’s two-part Iwo Jima tale (Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima) appear to be heading the Kill Bill route. Iwo Jima is probably going to be moving to 2007 to give Eastwood two chances at the Oscar instead of diminishing his chances to one with a double-release this year. Voters may wait until 2007 to honor Eastwood for his tale for the Japanese perspective. One part of me says this is likely. Another part of me worries that his Amero-centric version releasing this year could garner all the awards attention and leave Letters to rot next year. But with the increased likelihood voters will be able to honor him next year, his chances for a win this year seem dimmed.

The History Boys passes The Good German to land in the top 5 most likely Best Picture slots. With a Tony award for Best Play and a likeable cast of Brits, History seems a good bet for Oscar attention. Monster House replaces The Ant Bully as one of the five most likely Animated Features. Pedro Almodovar now takes the position of the odd-man-out director for Volver which is getting fantastic notices. Ed Harris and Peter O’Toole, Oscar’s perennial bridesmaids both receive attention as Best Actor possibilities.

Meryl Streep, though much more likely to earn a nomination in the weaker Supporting Actress field seems to be poised to take a nomination for her work in The Devil Wears Prada extending her record nomination run. She has been moved to Lead Actress. She could end up back in the Supporting race depending on advertising as Oscar season starts up but for now, her diva reputation could land her a leading nomination. Also of note, whether it will actually get released this year or not is anyone’s guess, is the Dakota Fanning rape tale tentatively titled Hounddog. The project screams Oscar for the half-pint actress, though some may be upset over the gratuitousness of the project and sometimes Oscar voters reject acknowledge manipulation (though it has always worked for Harvey Weinstein). Meanwhile, Laura Dern and Penelope Cruz enter the Best Actress field making it a rich tapestry of fine actresses that could create plenty of surprises.

Jack Nicholson makes a run for another Oscar nomination for The Departed as a Supporting Actor. Also joining the nominee potentials is former Oscar nominee James Cromwell who’s role in The Queen seems just too juicy to pass up. History Boys actor Samuel Barnett makes his first appearance on the shortlist of hopefuls. Patricia Clarkson takes on a role for which Mercedes McCambridge won an Oscar. She’s got a nod for Pieces of April under her belt but it’s a rough climb to a nomination and if All the King’s Men really bombs, she’ll be out pretty quick.

David Lynch picks up a potential Original Screenplay nod for Inland Empire. Pirates of the Caribbean 2 loses its spot in the Art Direction category to the Kennedy biopic Bobby but gains a spot in the Visual Effects category.

Well, that’s all for this month’s update. Please follow the links below to get to any of the altered areas.

-Wesley Lovell (August 31, 2006)

This Week’s Final Update

Our per diem update of the website with our site history continues today with an update of the 73rd Oscars. The updates will continue throughout the next couple of weeks. Also coming in the next few weeks will be periodic reviews updates of every Best Picture winner since 1927 (except Cavalcade which I have not yet been able to find on DVD). I just recently got caught up with the first 20 years (with 1947’s Gentleman’s Agreement), so the next 50 should be a blast.

-Wesley Lovell (September 1, 2006)

New Week: New Updates

The end is near! Today’s update features two historical eras updated. Both the 72nd and 71st Academy Awards histories in the Site History secion have been updated. This leaves only two more sections to complete: 70th and 69th. It’ll be a great thing to be done with these and I anticipate a completion of Wednesday or Thursday for all of this.

Once this is done, I can start focusing on a new update for the reviews section and eventually a "Look Update" for the Precursor History section. And, in regards to the reviews update, not only will I be posting reviews for several films I’ve seen this year, I’ll also be starting a 16-week Best Picture Memories series. Targeting to start around October 3, 2006 and leading up to the Tuesday before nominations, I’ll be reviewing five Best Picture winners (or re-posting already written reviews) a week starting with Wings and ending with Crash and ultimately a ranked list of the best and worst Best Picture winners in history.

-Wesley Lovell (September 4, 2006)

One More To Go

The 70th Academy Awards section update has been one of the most difficult yet. There were lots of differences between my original methods and my current methods of organization. However, it has been completed. This leaves the 69th as the only year I haven’t completed. Because of my difficulties with the 70th, it may be Friday before I complete the final update.

-Wesley Lovell (September 6, 2006)

And So It Ends

It is finished. The update everyone, or at least a small sect out there, has been waiting for is here. The 69th Academy Awards page is now updated to the new format. Additionally, all of the pages have seen a reworking of their page layout and some new pictures have been added. Check out the Site History page for all of the latest updates including the debut of the 79th Academy Awards page eight months prior to its normal debut. And thus ends two weeks of toiling to bring my site up to date.

There is still work to do but it can wait for another time as I focus on other matters currently at hand. Stay tuned for the post-Venice/Tornoto update of my Hopefuls list within the next two weeks. And, at the beginning of October, prepare for the beginning of my sixteen-week Best Picture review sprint.

As the weeks go by, many new films will release and I’ll give you my reviews of those films just as soon as I can. I’ll keep you posted.

-Wesley Lovell (September 7, 2006)

Big Hopefuls Update

Toronto and Venice have come and gone and the year’s Oscar slate looks crowded, yet empty. There are dozens of pictures and performances that have either gained reputation or lost it in the aftermath of two of the biggest international film festivals in the world.

Films like The Departed, Flags of Our Fathers, The History Boys and Dreamgirls didn’t show at these festivals, so their shots at Oscar glory have not been altered. They remain, as always, strong contenders.

The films that benefited from exposure include Stephen Frears’ The Queen, Pedro Almodovar’s Volver, Christopher Guest’s For Your Consideration andAlejandro González Iñárritu’s Babel. All of these films have questionable Best Picture potential (save The Queen) but they all feature contenders that could figure in the acting races.

Meanwhile, Ridley Scott’s A Good Year, Brian DePalma’s The Black Dahlia and Steven Zaillian’s All the King’s Men received either severely mixed notices or highly negative. Each seem to be fading quickly (with All the King’s Men virtually dead at the ballot box).

Here are the big changes on this month’s list. The Queen emerged as such a talked-about contender that it’s the only new entry in my predictions for Best Picture nominations. However, For Your Consideration and Children of Men have been added as potential nominees. All the King’s Men, The Black Dahlia and Hollywoodland have been similarly removed and that’s true of most categories.

The Animated Film category finds Everyone’s Hero removed as a nominee to be replaced by Flushed Away. Cars now seems poised to be the big winner this year.

In directing, the changes almost mirror the Best Picture alterations. Though, Almodovar remains the odd-man-out director while Stephen Frears remains the director without a nod for a Best Picture nominee.

The acting categories saw some significant changes. Peter O’Toole not only emerged from Venice as a likely Best Actor nominee, but the favorable reviews portend a possible career Oscar (nevermind the Lifetime Achievement Award they already gave him). Without some year-end awards, I may very soon move Meryl Streep to also-ran and position Cate Blanchett, who I just removed for Penelope Cruz, or some other strong contender into the Best Actress spot. As the year drifts on, the Best Actress category seems to be building momentum for its most crowded year in several. Ben Affleck also came out of Venice with a trophy and thus a renewed interest that his career-reviving turn as George Reeves could propel him to his first acting nomination. For Supporting Actress, we have Sharon Stone receiving the lion’s share of attention for her work in Bobby while sentimental favorite Catharine O’Hara is poised to reap a long-deserved nomination.

There are dozens of other changes in the list, but I’ll let you discover those for yourselves. This is shaping up to be a rather interesting year at the Oscars with any number of films that could become Best Picture. When the critics trophies start emerging in December, we’ll know a lot better what the true front-runners are. Until then, enjoy making lists and debating them unceasingly.

-Wesley Lovell (September 19, 2006)

Documentary Short Subject Short-List

It’s hard to believe that the Academy of Motion PIcture Arts and Sciences would already be making finalist decisions for Academy Awards nominations but a press release from the Academy today has announced eight films in competition for Documentary Short Subject award.

From three to five nominees will be selected from the following list. My Hopefuls page has been updated to reflect these choices.

  • The Blood of Yingzhou District
  • Dear Talula
  • The Diary of Immaculée
  • Phoenix Dance
  • Recycled Life
  • Rehearsing a Dream
  • A Revolving Door
  • Two Hands
  • Hopefuls: Oscar Hopefuls

-Wesley Lovell (October 11, 2006)

The Mid-October Oscar Hopefuls Update

With so many changes having occurred over the past week (some frontrunners slowing down and others emerging), it’s time for an update. Now, those of you who are also posters on my message board may have heard me tell VanHelsing (a HUGE Sandra Bullock fan) that I would not be updating until after several high profile releases came out throughout the month. Well, I didn’t think I was going to make any updates but here we are.

I recently got to hear Jennifer Hudson’s rendition of Dreamgirls‘ showstopping number "And I’m Telling You I’m Not Going" and all I can say is Wow! Well, not exactly just "wow". If her acting lives up one iota to her undeniably brilliant vocal performance, give Hudson an Oscar now. With that one (possibly unintentional) leak, I believe Dreamgirls may be the second musical this centuryto win a boat load of Oscars.

Now to some of the other changes in this edition. The previews for The History Boys and Bobby recently showed up on Apple Trailers and they cast a bit of light on both productions’ chances at the Oscars. I felt The History Boys didn’t look as good as it should. Sure it’s the Tony Awards’ most honored play in decades but Death of a Salesman (the play it is tied with) never managed a best picture nomination itself, though the 1951 version did manage five nominations. The History Boys trailer is very reminiscent of Dead Poets Society and if the film bears any actual resemblance to that Best Picture nominee, voters could be turned off.

Meanwhile, Bobby may be emerging as a strong Best Picture contender. The preview makes it look less gimmicky than the descriptions I’ve read. The huge ensemble gives the film a good bit of credence but if director Emilio Estevez proves he can keep such an unwieldy group of people together and keep the story on track, it could be one of the year’s big success stories.

Talk about Bullock has increased dramatically and it seems more and more likely she’ll capture a Supporting Actress nomination even if her film doesn’t match the awards potential of last year’s Capote. There are other changes throughout, so take a look and enjoy but expect more changes as the end of the month rolls around and November gets going.

-Wesley Lovell (October 14, 2006)

Foreign Language Submissions Announced

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences announced today the 61 submissions for the Foreign Language Film Oscar. These films will be screened by members of the Foreign Film committee in New York and Los Angeles and they will select 5 films to represent the category at the upcoming Oscar Nominations.

The Academy also makes specific note that Finnish submission "Lights in the Dusk" was pulled by director Aki Kaurismaki. However, they indicate they are going to try and convince him to allow the film to compete. We’ll see if they are able to convince him but maybe they should use the argument that Finland now has NO representation since the deadline for submissions had already passed. We can hope he’ll change his mind.

I will let you know as soon as the Academy confirms whether Kaurismaki changes his mind or not. I’ll also be waiting until later this month to update the Hopefuls page with these submissions and my predictions for nominations in this category.

-Wesley Lovell (October 19, 2006)

Early November Hopefuls

Today, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced 16 films that have been submitted for the Animated Feature category. Three films (Arthur and the Invisibles, Happy Feet and Paprika) have not opened for their one-week qualifying run but are expected to do so. If all three do, the category could feature up to five nominees. If one of them falters, the category would have the maximum number of nominations reduced to three.

As with most such announcements, it has prompted me to look at my nominations predictionsand make new evaluations. Today’s update not only features a revised Best Animated Feature line-up but also includes the Best Foreign Film update which has been pending some time.

There are also a number of other changes apparent in the list. Although I last updated the list on the website on October 14, I have made adjustments to the list since then and am now including those changes herein.

Throughout the month of November, buzz is going to rise and diminish on various films and performances. Several will be based on critical reaction as the movies make their way to the box office and others will be based on the strength of critical support. Certainly not until December will we truly understand the power of the critics when they start selecting their best of the year.

-Wesley Lovell (November 3, 2006)

Documentary Feature Short-List

This just in: The Documentary Feature list of 15 contenders has been released. I have not updated my hopefuls page yet, but will do so tomorrow.

Five films will be selected from this group of films. Please note that the Academy has announced that 81 films had been submitted for consideration and these 15 advance to the next stage, thus why some films you might have expected do not appear here.

  • “Blindsight”
  • “Can Mr. Smith Get to Washington Anymore?”
  • “Deliver Us from Evil”
  • “The Ground Truth”
  • “An Inconvenient Truth”
  • “Iraq in Fragments”
  • “Jesus Camp”
  • “Jonestown: The Life and Death of People’s Temple”
  • “My Country, My Country”
  • “Shut Up & Sing”
  • “Sisters in Law”
  • “Storm of Emotions”
  • “The Trials of Darryl Hunt”
  • “An Unreasonable Man”
  • “The War Tapes”

-Wesley Lovell (November 15, 2006)

Mid-November Hopefuls

With yesterday’s announcement of the 15 documentary feature finalists, it was time to perform an update of my hopefuls. Several updates were in order, actually. With word from the Dreamgirls screening incredibly positive, Anika Noni Rose gets a boost into my nomination predictions.

I’ve also added a new "chances" section that list the chances a given contender could be nominated. Locks are nominations that I cannot foresee changing. Near-Locks are the closest to being sure things and a few early awards will lock them in. Any of the Good designees could be replaced by any other to fill out the various slots of a category. Fair nominees need significant box office or critical support to push in for a nomination and also need to have those above them eliminated to be considered. Poor are long shot contenders that will likely not see a nomination but could benefit for some sudden burst of luck.

Only the top 7 categories (Best Picture, Animated Feature, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress) have a "chance" listed. All other categories remain as they were prior to this update. With Oscar season in full swing, these kinds of changes could come up mor efrequently.

-Wesley Lovell (November 16, 2006)

Third November Hopefuls Update

It has already been an eventful November and changes are coming at us from every direction. Flags of Our Fathers performed miserably at the box office and it appears that Warner Bros., in response, has moved Letters of Iwo Jima, the Clint Eastwood companion piece to Flags, to an Oscar-qualifying run in December. While there is no indication this move has anything to do with the box office, it’s clear that they want to wage one Oscar campaign for both films limiting their expenditures.

Sadly, this means that Letters from Iwo Jima which seemed like the more promising of the two pictures won’t have an Oscar push next year where it would have been a formidable Best Picture contender. Instead, the two films will be competing against each other for consideration. Since the Academy is predominantly American, it is unlikely that Iwo Jima will be the top contender of the two. One person benefits greatly. That’s Ken Watanabe. While Flags has no obvious leads and is likely to feature Supporting Actor contenders only, Watanabe appears to be a strong contender.

Several other films appear to be unlikely to release this year, thus have been removed. I’ve also taken out quite a number of films and performances that are unlikely to be nominated in any case, thus shoring up the contenders.

It’s also time for me to update my Original Song contenders. Thanks to several posters on my message boards, I have compiled a relatively detailed list of potentials. I’ve not selected all contenders as that could be tedious and unrewarding. I think I’ve selected a great group of potential nominees.

There are many udates this time. There are even more changes than my last update. To that end, I’m also accompanying this list with a mock up of the "Total Nomination Count" based on my current predictions.

-Wesley Lovell (November 20, 2006)

The First Precursor Awards

Today, Film Independent announced the nominees for its Independent Spirit Awards. Several films earn prominent bids that should help bolster their chances at the Oscars. Others see their chances diminish.

Half Nelson received prominent bids including nods for its leads Shareeka Epps and Ryan Gosling as well as nods for Best Feature, Best Director (Ryan Fleck) and Best First Screenplay.

Little Miss Sunshine also upped its prominence with bids for Best Feature, Best Director (Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris), Best First Screenplay and Supporting Actor nominations for both Paul Dano and Alan Arkin.

Catharine O’Hara picked up For Your Consideration‘s only nomination giving her a leg up on competition in the Supporting Actress race where she’s competing at the Oscars. The confusion may be that O’Hara received her nod for Lead Actress.

Robert Altman’s unexpected nod for A Prairie Home Companion may signal an option for the directors branch to give him one last honor at the Osars.

Films that lost ground with these nominations include Little Children, Bobby and Infamous. We know that Infamous was eligible because of the inclusion of Daniel Craig for Supporting Actor. However, neither contenders Toby Jones or Sandra Bullock earned nods. Little Children and Bobby didn’t get any nods thus generating the question: were they eligible? Budget wise, both films qualified but who knows with the bizarre rules FIlm Independent has imposed in the past.

Thursday will see the next big precursor come along when the International Press Academy announces their nominations for the Satellite Awards.

Also updating with this edition is my hopefuls page which reflects the above shifts in the schedule.

-Wesley Lovell (November 28, 2006)

The Satellite Award Nominations

UPDATE BELOW

There are few organizations that carry as little prestige or bearing on the Oscars than the International Press Academy. Their Satellite Awards were splintered from the Golden Globes because they didn’t feel their views were properly represented. This is their 11th year presenting awards and there isn’t much herein of which to be proud.

First off, they have ignored studio placement decisions and put the not-a-lead Leonardo DiCaprio in support for this role in The Departed. Also of note is the Supporting categories are now genre-free. For their first 10 years, the Satellites had them split between Drama and Comedy/Musical like their picture and lead acting categories. That is no more. Also notable is Toni Collette’s push as lead instead of support where she is currently being pushed.

Dreamgirls tied Flags of Our Fathers for most nominations at 10 each. Babel came in second with 9. The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine were a distant third with five nominations. Coming in right behind with four nods each were Little Children, The Queen, Volver and, believe it or not, X-Men: The Last Stand.

Other notable snubs include these early favorites: Toby Jones and Sandra Bullock in Infamous, Ben Affleck in Hollywoodland and The History Boys.

[UPDATE, 11/2/06] Further proving their reputation as second-rate, the International Press Academy, without fanfare, has revised its list of nominations. Other than some name spelling corrections, one most glaring error was found: Kate Winslet actually had been nominated for Little Children which seemed quite a bit odd when her film and her co-star Patrick Wilson were nominated.

Over the weekend, a number of critics orgs may be passing out plaudits. We’ll have to see who does what when before we know when the next official release will be.

-Wesley Lovell (December 1, 2006)

Annie Award Nominations

Yesterday, the animation industry’s highest honor, the Annie Awards, announced its 34th annual list. In 23 categories, 11 for feature films, the awards saw one major trend. A Scanner Darkly wasn’t in the mix. Long considered a likely fifth nominee, Scanner Darkly suffers the same fate as its counterpart Waking Life which also walked away with nothing from the Annies and was missing from the final Oscar list.

Contrary to the press, who obviously didn’t look clearly at the nomination list, Cars was the top nominee with 9 mentions. Flushed Away was widely reported as having tied Disney’s animated effort but when looking at the list, its ninth nod was for video game animation, which is clearly a recognition for the video game manufacturers, not the motion picture industry. Thus, Flushed Away earned a mere eight nominations, tying instead with Over the Hedge.

Monster House came in fourth with seven mentions while Open Season received six. The only sequel placing high in the nominations pack was Ice Age: The Meltdown which came in just below Open Season with five. Notably lacking in nominations, Happy Feet earned only two nominations: one for best feature and the second, and more bizarre choice, for best writing.

The Annie Awards, as you can see in the statistics link below, is not known for its nomination predictability. They are weak in that arena, especially for animated short films; however, they are quite strong (as are many other organizations) in correctly aligning their Best Animated Feature prize with the Oscars, having not mismatched in their side-by-side history with the Academy Awards.

Tomorrow (Wednesday), the National Board of Review will put out its list of the year’s best, becoming the first critics org to do so. The National Board is both a good and bad predictor. The NBR is tremendously great at predicting Oscar nominations, but not so wonderful with wins. So look for a large number of Oscar nominees to be present in tomorrow’s announcement.

Please also note that today’s scheduled Best Picture review update may be delayed to later this week due to a great deal of Statistics and History prep work I have to do for this week’s precursors.

-Wesley Lovell (December 5, 2006)

National Board of Review Announced

A surprise win by Letters of Iwo Jima tops an otherwise surprising list of winners from the NBR.

Frontrunner Dreamgirls and royal biopic The Queen failed to place in the Top 10 films of the year, though NBR’s Top 10 fluctuates in its predictability capabilities.

Djimon Hounsou is a surprise contender for Blood Diamond after picking up a Supporting Actor nomination.

Little more can be said about these nominations except there are some notable snubs. The Best list to use to find your five Best Picture winners is the Broadcast Film Critics (otherwise known as the Critics’ Choice). They have, since 1996, only three times failed to feature all five Best Pic nominees in their year-end Top 10. When they come out with their nominations, we’ll see a better picture of the landscape.

-Wesley Lovell (December 6, 2006)

Best Original Song Contenders

Today, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the following list of songs eligibl for the Original Song award at this year’s Oscars.

Sometime over the weekend or early next week, I’ll take the below list and incorporate it into my Hopefuls list.

  • “Believe It” – The Heart of the Game
  • “The Best” – Everyone’s Hero
  • “The Book I Write” – Stranger than Fiction
  • “Broken Bridges” – Broken Bridges
  • “Chan Chan” – Water
  • “Circle in the Sand” – Friends with Money
  • “Coming Back to You” – Deja Vu
  • “Definition of Love” – Akeelah and the Bee
  • “Dreamz with a Z” – American Dreamz
  • “Encarnacion” – Nacho Libre
  • “Every Word” – Wordplay
  • “Family of Me” – Over the Hedge
  • “A Father’s Way” – The Pursuit of Happyness
  • “The Girl in Byakkoya – White Tiger Field” – Paprika
  • “Heist” – Over the Hedge
  • “Hillbilly Holla” – Barnyard
  • “Hollywood Familia” – Hollywood Familia
  • “I Belong” – Open Season
  • “I Need to Wake Up” – An Inconvenient Truth
  • “In Rosa Vernat Lilium” – The Nativity Story
  • “It’s a Fight” – Rocky Balboa
  • “Ju Hua Tai” – Curse of the Golden Flower
  • “Keep Holding On” – Eragon
  • “Khalbali” – Rang de Basanti
  • “Kingdom of Love” – One Night with the King
  • “Listen” – Dreamgirls
  • “A Lonely Man” – Don’t Come Knocking
  • “Love You I Do” – Dreamgirls
  • “Luka Chuppi” – Rang de Basanti
  • “The Motion” – 3 Needles
  • “My Little Girl” – Flicka
  • “Never Gonna Break My Faith” – Bobby
  • “Never Let Go” – The Guardian
  • “O Kazakhstan” – Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
  • “Open Your Heart” – Saving Shiloh
  • “Ordinary Miracle” – Charlotte’s Web
  • “Our Town” – Cars
  • “Patience” – Dreamgirls
  • “Philosophy” – Step Up
  • “PJ & Rooster” – Idlewild
  • “Quest for Love” – Arthur and the Invisibles
  • “Real Gone” – Cars
  • “Really Nice Day” – The Wild
  • “Shine on ‘Em” – Blood Diamond
  • “The Song of the Heart” – Happy Feet
  • “Star Mile” – The Last Kiss
  • “Still” – Over the Hedge
  • “Suenos” – Hollywood Familia
  • “Sweet Music” – Glory Road
  • “Til the End of Time” – Little Miss Sunshine
  • “Tonight” – Night at the Museum
  • “Try Not to Remember” – Home of the Brave
  • “Upside Down” – Curious George
  • “When You Taught Me How to Dance” – Miss Potter
  • “Won’t Let You Fall” – Poseidon
  • “You Know My Name” – Casino Royale

-Wesley Lovell (December 8, 2006)

Various Critics Awards Announced

Five groups announced their year’s best lists. The biggest of the group is the Los Angeles Film Critics Association which picked Letters from Iwo Jima as their top film. Actor went to Forest Whitaker and Sacha Baron Cohen. Actress went to Helen Mirren. United 93‘s Paul Greengrass took the director’s prize.

The American Film Institute weighed in with its 10 best films. Noticably absent is The Departed. Flags of Our Fathers was ignored in favor of Eastwood’s other film Letters from Iwo Jima. Surprisingly included were The Devil Wears Prada and Inside Man.

Also announcing were the Washington DC Area Film Critics Association, the Boston Society of FIlm Critics and the New York Online Film Critics. Each organization picked a different film as their top choice. DC selected United 93, Boston selected The Departed and New York Online Critics selected The Queen. They all picked the same actor and actress. Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren are possibly now the front runners of their races this year.

For more details, check the Precursors page. After tomorrow’s announcement of the New York Film Critics Circle, I will be posting the first full list of all winners compared.

-Wesley Lovell (December 10, 2006)

New York Critics Announced, Precursors Updated

The New York Critics have entered their verdict on the best films and performances of the year. United 93 picks up its second critics prize. However, if you’ll notice the two orgs that chose the film were heavily involved in 9/11: Washington DC critics and New York critics.

Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren are quickly moving into front-runner positions with the Academy. Having won every prize thus far makes them virtually unstoppable. Nominations guaranteed. Wins likely.

Jennifer Hudson’s performance in the critics groups, even if her film hasn’t been recognized, is now in a great position to take the trophy for Best Supporting Actress. The Supporting Actor award gains no clarification as the awards seem to be all over the place. Djimon Hounsou has become a serious contender for Blood Diamond.

Martin Scorsese has to be considered a lead conteder for the Oscar for Best Director if it weren’t for his dismal performance in past derbies. He won both Los Angeles and New York critics awards for GoodFellas back in 1990 but still failed to take the prize. With both The Aviator and Gangs of New York he was expected to win that long-overdue Oscar. However, he remains Oscar-less. Not even Alfred Hitchcock, Stanley Kubrick or Robert Altman could ever win an elusive competitive Oscar so being ignored certianly isn’t a bad thing.

Two more major announcements are coming this week. The Broadcast Film Critics and Golden Globes both announce their nominations. They will announce Tuesday and Thursday respectively.

Also updated today is the Precursor Tallies page that will help everyone keep track of the prizes in each category.

-Wesley Lovell (December 11, 2006)

Broadcast Film Critics Association, San Francisco Film Critics and More

Today’s announcement of the Broadcast Film Critics Association nominations mark the first chance many of us have of looking into the eyes of the Academy. The BFCA has similar tastes and this slate should add some fodder to the speculation.

But how accurate are they? Let’s take a brief look at the top six categories.

For Best Picture, the BFCA is spot-on. In the 10 years of nominations data, only three times has this group NOT featured all five eventual Best Picture nominees in its lineup. In 2001, Gosford Park didn’t make their list. In 2000 it was Chocolat and in 1996 it was Secrets & Lies. There is little reason to expect this to occur again, so for all intents and purposes, Best Picture may be isolated to these ten films.

Best Actor is a little less certain, with only a 78% effective rate (compared to 94% on Best Picture). They’ve shorn up their expectations in the last three years, but at least two or three of their list may not make the final. The same thing could be said for Best Actress, which has a 80% success rate.

Even Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress have the same effectiveness (77% and 81% respectively). Less certain is Best Director. The BFCA is not known for great predictions in that category with only a 68% success rate. Expect approximately three or four of their selections to also receive Oscar nominations.

For the remaining categories, outcomes are even less certain. With only half the potential candidates of the Academy’s screenplay award featured here, you’d think they’d be a little more prescient, but they are less so. On average only four of their selections also pick up nods with the Academy. That’s out of 10 possible selections.

They are terrible with Original Score, yielding on average half of the final nominees. Song is even less accurate featuring a 45% success rate, so two to three nominees might come from this list. They are decent with Animated Film predictions, matching roughly 77% of the time.

Abysmal is an appropriate descriptor for the Foreign Film category yielding seldom more than one match each year. With Apocalypto and Letters from Iwo Jima ineligible, there are only four possible contenders. However, they are four strong contenders that could all end up breaking the BFCA’s cycle of bad luck. Documentary Feature is a little more accurate. 60% is better than Foreign’s 26% but no master stroke. They average two to three Oscar matches. This year, only An Inconvenient Truth and Shut Up & Sing are on the Oscar short list, but both are likely nominees.

Also, the San Francisco Film Critics announced their winners today. Little Children was selected their top film. Otherwise, their selections aren’t terribly noteworthy.

The Golden Globe nominations are in two days and normally I would wait until they release to alter my predictions, but enough has occurred in the last week that I think it’s time for an update, which you can find through the link below.

-Wesley Lovell (December 12, 2006)

Golden Globe Nominations

The Golden Globe Nominations are in and boy are there some shocks!

With 7 nominations, three in acting categories, Babel took the lead in this year’s race. Though it’s unclear if the film will translate that to very many wins, it’s still an impressive total. The Departed came in second with six nominations and Dreamgirls took the third place spot with five.

The big shock is that Bill Condon FAILED to earn a Best Director nomination which drops him from serious contention for his film Dreamgirls. Sure, he’ll probably still be nominatd if DGA agrees but his chances of a win are tiny with only legendary director Roman Polanski the only director to win the Oscar for Best Director that wasn’t also nominated by the HFPA since 1973.

Ben Affleck is back in contention with his well deserved nomination for Hollywoodland. Mark Wahlberg emerges as a surprise contender for a Supporting nomination with a double nomination for supporting actresses in babel a growing likelihood.

-Wesley Lovell (December 14, 2006)

Significant Hopefuls Update

After this week’s major series of announcements, it’s time for a significant update to my nomination predictions list.

Many of you may think the term Hopefuls represents my personal desires. Nothing could be further from the truth. While some of my personal favorites have made the lists, I try to focus on the most likely nominees and winners at these early stages. While my winners picks will henge on the actual nominations, totals and all precursors, including peer groups, they are not near as confident as the predictions for nominations themselves. The term Hopefuls is used in this case to represent who or what fim has the most hopes for an Oscar nomination.

This update features a number of films and performances that have lost all luster and been removed and others with renewed expectations. In the Best Picture category, little has changed except for the chances of Babel, which I believe could still get an Oscar nomination. The film is far more accessible than Inarritu’s previous film 21 Grams which was virtually ignored by critics. Its popularity may help both Adriana Barraza (the emotional soul of the film) and Rinko Kikuchi to Oscar nominations.

Best Animated Film has seen a shift with critics prizes towards Happy Feet. Meanwhile the Best Director prize has shifted back to Martin Scorsese. From June through October, he was my Best Director pick. I believed he was going to win that long expected Oscar. Then the press and buzz for Dreamgirls reached a furor and I switche to Bill Condon. Now, with no prizes have yet gone to Condon, which was to be expected, the Golden Globes have left him out of their list of five. This is damaging since it means the likelihood of a Condon win has been dashed.

Best Actor seems less assured with Forest Whitaker’s performance at early precursors, but Peter O’Toole still feels like a solid choice. The Academy has sentimental tendencies and this would likely be their final chance to recognize O’Toole after 7 previous nominations and no Oscars. Best Actress has solidified to Helen Mirren who has yet to lose a precursor. She’s as sure a bet as we’ve had since Susan Sarandon for Dead Man Walking.

Eddie Murphy’s gotten enough notices to keep him in the running for Best Supporting Actor but his chances of a win have dwindled significantly without a single critics prize. Instead, Mark Wahlberg has begun to ascend as the dark horse finisher. If he gets a nod from SAG, he could easily bump out any one of the five listed who doesn’t get such a mention. Supporting Actress, however, has not changed in its outlook. Hudson has picked up enough critics prizes and has had enough press to virtually assure her as a winner. The Babel girls will likely cancel each other out, Catherine O’Hara didn’t pick up an expected Globe nod and Blanchett won for The Aviator recently enough that a second win so soon is unlikely.

Until the next round of critics prizes as well as the much needed guild awards, this year remains as unexpectedly shaken up as any year we’ve seen in recent memory. All but the Best Actress category are incredibly fluid and could see paradigm shifts with any slight breeze.

Also added are the 7 films that are vying for the Visual Effects award. The Academy has announced the bake-off finalists and they are the only seven films listed in my hopefuls listed for Visual Effects now.

-Wesley Lovell (December 16, 2006)

Major Precursors and Minor Hopefuls Update

I’ve been remiss in my duties this past week. Financial matters have kept me rather preoccupied, but that should change soon. However, with that change, frequent updates to the site will be slowed for a bit. Updates will only appear in the evenings (if the job I get is days) and won’t have as much depth as I would otherwise like.

Below are updates to the Precursor Awards for this year, which include about a half dozen new critics groups and their prizes. Additionally, I have updated the associated tallies page.

After seeing Eragon on Monday, I have also found it necessary to immediately update my Hopefuls page to exclude it from a nomination and promote Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest to the presumptive front-runner position.

Thankfully, there are no more precursors anticipated until the New Year, so I won’t likely update that information here. I will, however, continue to work on my Best Picture History updates. I’ve already gotten caught up enough to write reviews for the next couple of weeks and shouldn’t have issues filling out that term. So, keep an eye out for our update next week. I also hope to start working on 2006 reviews again, getting the website up to date again and present my Top 10 of the year sometime after the new year.

-Wesley Lovell (December 21, 2006)

Best Picture History

Looking at this update’s films, it would be difficult not to see the more modern choices pale when propped up against such lofty and laudable films.

Starting off this period is the musical biopic Amadeus about the legendary composer. It features two outstanding performances and is undeniably enjoyable to watch. Even when morose, the film feels energetic and prescient.

The same cannot be said for Out of Africa. Meryl Streep’s engaging performance aside, Africa is somewhat of a chore to sit through featuring several unimportant characters given too much screen time in this lush and gorgeous, though non-dynamic film.

The final film from the 1980s this week is a terrific war film called Platoon. Even though the Vietname War had been over for nearly a decade, the film still feels every bit as important as it might have had it been made in the early seventies. It helps prop up the 1980s as a surprisingly strong decade of Best Picture winners, soon to be bolstered by next week’s films.

Even with Out of Africa‘s problems, the film is a significant improvement over the two that round out this update. Gladiator is the better of the two remaining films. Russell Crowe does a good job in the film, though the picture is too much a rehash of the Biblical epic Ben-Hur for my tastes.

A Beautiful Mind does not have the luxury of having mimicry as a defense. It is not only an original screenplay but a relatively bad one. As screenwriter, Akiva Goldsman delivers a portrayal of an interesting person. Unfortunately, it’s up to the actors to add any measure of depth to their roles for Goldsman has neglected them significantly. The film would stand as a slight appendix to a broader, more interesting topic that is left significantly unexplored.

Only three weeks to go. Next week I’ll be looking at the years 1987 through 1989, 1998 and 1999. They are an interesting group of pictures and should make for an interesting comparison.

Please note that the previous twelve weeks’ update information is located on the Reviews page to keep the front page less cluttered as Oscar season looms.

-Wesley Lovell (December 26, 2006)

Important Dates and New Critics Results

Recent announcements from the Chicago Film Critics and the Oklahoma Film Critics Circle don’t improve our rather murky forecast. This year has been slightly less predictable than years past. Though some films like The Departed and Dreamgirls seem firmly entrenched in the Best Picture race, several other films seem destined for nominations but only three spots remain. Letters from Iwo Jima, Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, United 93 and other films all want those spots but only three will get them.

Chicago Film Critics aren’t known for accuracy, though they were the only organization to recognize Crash largely based on the influence of Roger Ebert who adored the film. This year, Ebert’s out of the picture, but they are faling back on their critics heavy roots and gone for legendary filmmaker Martin Scorsese hoping to force the Academy into recognizing the director for a solid effort and return to form.

The Oklahoma Film Critics Circle stirred up the waters with a pick of United 93, one of many critics groups honoring the 9/11 film that has pleased audiences and critics. Could this be this year’s spoiler? It would be Hollywood’s opportunity to honor the sacrifice of those who lost their lives on 9/11 and would represent a return to form for the Academy. Other films might fit their recent direction better, but this could be an interesting, down-to-the-wire year.

Now, let’s take a look at what’s coming up. Some important and not-so-important organizations will be announcing awards and nominations in the early days of 2007. Starting things off on January 1st is the Online Film Critics Society. Their track record isn’t very impactful, but they tend to have a different view on filmmaking than most print critics. Their choice might give us a better look at how critics across the board are feeling as opposed to the more localized groups.

On Thursday the fourth, both the Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild announce nominations. These nods are going to be terrific for helping prognosticators make their final predictions. Although these orgs feature plenty of non-Academy members, they tend to share a lot of the same thought processes when selecting nominations.

The following week starts off on Monday with the American Society of Cinematographers announcing their nominations along with the Online Film Critics Society who will announce their winners. The incredibly important Directors Guild announce nods on Tuesday followed by the slightly lesser important Writers Guild nominations. Then, capping off the week is a huge day on Thursday with the American Cinema Editors nomination announcement and the Broadcast Film Critics Awards.

The Golden Globe Awards follow on Monday the 15th. Then, as the week progresses, the Art Directors Guild and Cinema Audio Society announce nominees on Thursday. Then on Saturday the Producers Guild of America announce their winner. The final announcement prior to the Academy Awads nominations on Tuesday morning January 23 comes on Sunday when the Online FIlm & Television Association announce their choices for the best of the year.

That’s everything within the next 25 days. That’s not much time to take everything in before the nominations, but we’ll all do our very best.

-Wesley Lovell (December 29, 2006)

2007

New Precursor Awards and Nominations

Two new precursors have come down the pipe. The Florida Film Critics announced their winners just prior to the new year and the Online Film Critics Society has selected its nominees just after the new year.

Florida went crazy for The Departed naming it for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay. They continued the love for Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren and pushed Cate Blanchett towards the lead of the supporting actress field this year.

The Online Film Critics Society made a splash with an eclectic array of nominees for Best Picture with only three films that are generally talked about as Best Picture contenders, Babel, The Departed and United 93. Not only were Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima absent from the best picture race, they received no other mention. Dreamgirls only received attention in three categories: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Breakthrough Performer. Children of Men and Pan’s Labyrinth received a large amount of attention from the OFCS, making their list quite a bit more original than any of the others.

Lack of originality, however, was abound in the acting categories with nary an unusual or non-contending performance making an appearance.

NEXT UP: Producers Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild on Thursday, January 5.

-Wesley Lovell (January 2, 2007)

Producers Guild Nominations

The first major guild award out of the gate, the Producers Guild of America pulls another fast one on all of us by announcing their nominations a day ahead of their original schedule. They did this last year as well.

Tomorrow’s the Screen Actors Guild announcement, but until then, the link below contains the major nominees from the PGA.

After some disappointments in the critics awards, Dreamgirls ends up among the five films the PGA has deemed the best of the year. Notable omissions: Letters from Iwo Jima, United 93 and Flags of Our Fathers.

-Wesley Lovell (January 3, 2007)

Screen Actors Guild Nominations

With the announcement of the Screen Actors Guild nominations, some big things may change, though probably very little.

What is missing: Jack Nicholson in The Departed, Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat, Michael Sheen in The Queen, Brad Pitt in Babel, Catherine O’Hara in For Your Consideration, the casts of The Queen, Clint Eastwood’s films and United 93.

In the ensemble race, we look at the past and see that generally only one or two films are left out of the SAG ensemble list as Best Picture nominees. Only 2000 and 1995 saw three films miss the final ballot. Only one year have all three films matched up. We can probably safely assume that Bobby will be missing on Oscar morning. With this list matching up nearly perfectly with the Producers Guild, we could very well see The Queen take Bobby‘s place and thus have our final five. But watch out for Little Miss Sunshine. That film could also be ignored in favor of one of Clint’s films or United 93.

The Best Actress slate matches up 100% with all of the other prognostications out there, so we’re probably looking at the final five. In recent years, SAG has been increasingly predictive of this category, which means I don’t think we have any suspense here.

A little more fluidity exists in the Best Actor category. Sacha Baron Cohen NEEDED a nomination here to secure an Oscar nod. That his peers refused to recognize him may spell disaster, but he’s still hanging on by a thread. Dicaprio poses the biggest problem. Will he get the Oscar nod for The Departed or Blood Diamond? SAG ballots listed him as Supporting Actor but Oscar ballots do not list lead/support for films, so they can go either direction. The rule is an actor cannot be nominated twice in a single category. Whichever role receives the most votes first will receive the nomination. If it’s for The Departed, he’ll be a single nominee. If it’s for Blood Diamond, we could see a double nomination. The other three nominees, O’Toole, Whitaker and Smith seem assured.

Supporting Actor is shaping up to be another exciting race for nomination this year. Less consistent at the SAG compared to the Oscars, this category could see a number of upsets. It’s safe to assume that Jackie Earle Haley, Djimon Hounsou and Eddie Murphy will get nominations. Alan Arkin moves into a more tenable position with his SAG and GG recognition. That leaves the Dicaprio slot. See my discussion of Best Actor for info on whether he can be a double nominee. As a potential replacement, Jack Nicholson is the most likely to fill the slot because of his veteran status but watch out for Michael Sheen in The Queen whose chances were almost dashed with this announcement and Mark Wahlberg who could come out of nowhere like Ethan Hawke in 2001.

What’s interesting about Supporting Actress is that the original slate of solid contenders shifts dramatically with the SAG nominations. Catherine O’Hara’s chances are dwindling even further with her snub. A journeyman actor, O’Hara had the best shot of a nod with SAG and that she didn’t get it speaks volumes about her chances. Hudson, Blanchett and the Babel girls Kikichi and Barraza seem pretty solid now with their nominations here. That leaves plenty of options for the fifth slot. While Abigail Breslin benefited a great deal from this nod, will Oscar follow suit? It seems likely considering how often in the past the Academy has nominated such young actresses in this category. The problem is, many may see her as a lead and that could spell a Keisha Castle-Hughes discussion. Castle-Hughes got into the Best Actress race surprisingly, Breslin would have no chance. So if the preponderance of voters put her in lead, she could be left out here for O’Hara or any number of surprise fifth-wheels.

While some waters are getting murky, others are becoming quite clear. With the multiple guild awards these past two days, I’ve updated my hopefuls list based on this information. Check it out below. Note that the only categories seeing changes are Best Picture Best Animated Feature and the acting categories. Other changes wait for the respective guild awards.

-Wesley Lovell (January 4, 2007)

Directors Guild of America Nominations

The nominations are announced and the suspenes over this year’s Best Picture and Best Director nominees may have ended.

This is the first time since the PGA nominated films in 1997 that the DGA and PGA have matched up 100%. At that time, Amistad failed to pick up a Best Picture nomination in favor of The Full Monty. With this year’s crowd-pleaser already included in the list (Little Miss Sunshine) there is little that the Academy would likely do to change the nominees, except a last-minute push for Alfonso Cuaron’s children of men.

In the nine years DGA and PGA have competed, of the thirty-three films that were on both guilds’ lists, only three did not take home Oscar nominations for Best Picture. Almost Famous, Being John Malkovich and the aforementioned Amistad.

It looks like we might be seeing both the Best Picture slate and the Best Director slate. If directors couldn’t find their way to nominate veterans Paul Greengrass or Clint Eastwood, it is unlikely the Academy will do so. This applies more to the former, than the latter. Eastwood could still pull off a nomination at the expense of Dayton and Faris but it’s going to be a tough day to predict which of the five will be upset on Oscar morning. I have updated below my predictions for Best Director as my Best Picture slate is not impacted by this announcement.

-Wesley Lovell (January 9, 2007)

Directors Guld of America Nominations

The nominations are announced and the suspenes over this year’s Best Picture and Best Director nominees may have ended.

This is the first time since the PGA nominated films in 1997 that the DGA and PGA have matched up 100%. At that time, Amistad failed to pick up a Best Picture nomination in favor of The Full Monty. With this year’s crowd-pleaser already included in the list (Little Miss Sunshine) there is little that the Academy would likely do to change the nominees, except a last-minute push for Alfonso Cuaron’s children of men.

In the nine years DGA and PGA have competed, of the thirty-three films that were on both guilds’ lists, only three did not take home Oscar nominations for Best Picture. Almost Famous, Being John Malkovich and the aforementioned Amistad.

It looks like we might be seeing both the Best Picture slate and the Best Director slate. If directors couldn’t find their way to nominate veterans Paul Greengrass or Clint Eastwood, it is unlikely the Academy will do so. This applies more to the former, than the latter. Eastwood could still pull off a nomination at the expense of Dayton and Faris but it’s going to be a tough day to predict which of the five will be upset on Oscar morning. I have updated below my predictions for Best Director as my Best Picture slate is not impacted by this announcement.

-Wesley Lovell (January 9, 2007)

Makeup Finalists Announced

The Academy announced today the Makeup award finalists. The seven films, which have now been updated under the Hopefuls section linked below.

-Wesley Lovell (January 9, 2007)

Precursor Award Day

Updated 2:24pm: Both ASC and WGA have now announced and are updated below.

With the ASC being one of the more accurate precursors of late, you can generally expect at least three and usually four, sometimes five of the nominees to take a berth at the Oscars. My updated predictions for this category are on the Hopefuls page below.

The Writers Guild of America has varying levels of success as do most guilds. One can say that Academy often has different tastes than the individually larger guilds. Through 2000, the WGA Original Screenplay nominees matched up four out of five nominees typically. Since then, three and only three nominees have carried over to the Oscars. With a few exceptions in the last ten years, four nominees from the WGA’s Adapted Screenplay corresponded at the Oscars.

Original Post: It’s a big day in precursor world. Specifically, we have two known precursor announcements and a surprise one. Let’s start off with the surprise, since the other two haven’t been announced yet.

The Costume Designers Guild announced its 15 nominees for motion picture costuming. Their nominations are hardly the accurate precursor, with a dismal prediction success rate. Over the last three years, with the increase in number of categories, they have been able to predict three of the five eventual Costume Design nominees.

You’ll find a list of these nominees at the link below. It appears with this list, they may get more than three right this year, but look only at the Period set as the Academy tends to ignore present day-set works and fantasy productions.

Also on the radar for today are the American Society of Cinematographers, who were supposed to announce Monday, and the Writers Guild of America. Both groups are better known for their predictive capabilities. We’ll have to see how that goes but look for those announcements as soon as I am able to post them at the link below. Once these are all updated, I’ll be altering my predictions in the Writing, Cinematography and Costume Design categories.

-Wesley Lovell (January 11, 2007)

More Precursor Awards

As Oscar Nomination morning approaches in less than two weeks, the precursors are coming out of the woodworks. While we’ve already got the British Academy Award nominations and the American Cinema Editors nominations (as listed below), we also expect the USC Scripter award winners sometime today and the Broadcast Film Critics Awards this evening.

The American CInema Editors announced their Eddie Awards nominees today which typically include four of the five Oscar nominees. Only twice since the group stopped nominating only three films has the group chosen only three of the Oscar nominees.

Because they’ve been so inaccurate for years, the British Academy of Film & Television Arts isn’t the best of precursors. I’ve updated that information below, but I won’t try to analyze it at this time.

Since my Hopefuls currently already list the four films that I think will carry over nominations this year, I have not made any changes as Letters from Iwo Jima still seems a safe bet.

-Wesley Lovell (January 12, 2007)

Important News About The Oscar Guy

For anyone who hasn’t watched the news and don’t know where I live, or for those who haven’t read my message board, you may not be aware of the situation I am currently in. This has been one of the worst weekends ever for me and I’m really not sure when it’s all going to end. Let me explain:

Friday evening, I was watching TV and working on my computer as usual. An ice storm was coming through this area but we were doing fine. About 2:00am, the power went out. It still has not come back on.

So I’ve been without power in sub-freezing temperatures for more than 72 hours now and I’m not sure when it’s coming back on. Our area has been declared a disaster area and our governor has sent in National Guard Troops. 90% of the city of Springfield, MO is without power. They are slowly restoring said power, but this causes a great of problems in terms of trying to update this site.

Matters were made worse on Saturday when my non-bank debit card was denied at Wal-Mart while I was trying to buy food, which I was out of. Thankfully I had a small amount of money in pocket to cover it but needless to say, I was not happy. I called H&R Block who had provided the card and they had found suspicious activity (a charge from Bed, Bad & Beyond was there and I haven’t purchased from that outlet in more than 2 years). So they had suspended the card and have told me that they have to re-issue a card, which means I don’t have access to ANY of my money for 7 to 10 days.

So, here I am without access to money and stuck in a house that has no heat or electricity (warm showers are only a small perk thanks to a wonderful gas water heater). I’ve been spending most of days in places that have power and occasionally internet access. That’s why you’re seeing an update from me today.

I won’t ever beg for money but if you feel you want to make a donation, the paypal button to the left will allow you to use a credit card or paypal account to send money. I have a different PayPal debit card that I can use to access those funds.

I have found one hope so far of being able to watch tonight’s Golden Globe Awards…unless I can find a live video feed somewhere online. They may also have inet, so I may be able to update the website with the winners as they come in. If for some reason, I cannot, do not worry. My message board posters will update those winners as they are announced in the Precursor forum. If I’m able to update, I will be extremely happy but otherwise, I hope to at least have access to see the winners instead of having to wait until the morning. So, if you have any information on inet feeds of the Golden Globes or any other information that would help me, please post it in the Miscellaneous Off-Topic forum under the topic Ice Storm. Thanks so much for your patience and dedication in this frustrating period. By the time temperatures return to above freezing on Thursday, we should have power again and I’ll be back to my regular updates, so should have no problem posting next Tuesday’s Oscar nominations.

-Wesley Lovell (January 15, 2007)

Golden Globe Awards

I have managed to find internet access and TV access, so it’s time to prep for the Golden Globes. Find below the updated list, which when I get my own internet access back, will be moved to the precursor section. I’ll update the below just as quickly as possible as the winners are announcements.

-Wesley Lovell (January 15, 2007)

Site Update and Other Information

The outage continues. I am still without power and we’ve passed the one week mark (this morning at 2am). There were crews in the area today, but I don’t know if they’ll get us up today or tomorrow. Hopefully today but I’m not going to hold my breath in anticipation.

I have updated the links below to include the Golden Globe winners as well as the Broadcast Film Criticsc winners, the Cinema Audio Society nominees and the Art Directors Guild nominees. I am not updating my hopefuls list at this time. I anticipate doing that sometime monday to create my "final" predictions.

The Producers Guild is supposed to announce their winner this evening, so we’ll see a frontrunner in the Best Picture race likely emerge. Tomorrow the Online Film & Television Association will announce its 11th Annual Film nominees. Tuesday, of course, is Oscar Nominations Morning. Come hell or high water, I will watch the announcement live on E! and immediately post the nominees as I get them in (after all the categories are announced, of course). We’ll then begin our much ballyhooed discussion of the nominees on the message board.

I will also hopefully post the update I was intending to post this past Tuesday later today. Stay tuned.

-Wesley Lovell (January 20, 2007)

Best Picture History Finale

After fiften long weeks of 5-review updates, it is time to bring our Best Picture retrospective to a close. It’s been an enlightening experience and I’m glad I’ve finally been able to commit these films to memory.

At the link below, you’ll find a full list of all 78 films that have won Best Picture. I have ranked them from best to worst. Of course we all have our differences of opinion, but this is how I see it. Let me also go over the ten best and ten worst here in this update.

Up until last week, the top film of each period that I reviewed was the featured picture for the update. Last week, knowing I would need a new pic this week, I decided to shake things up and make you think Titanic was my top film. It is not. It is one of my favorites, ranking in the top 20 but it was not the top Best Picture winner of all time.

That distinction goes to Schindler’s List. Many would cite this film only as one of the top 10 but after having seen them all, and while a number of the other top five films are very close in terms of quality, I feel that Steven Spielberg’s masterpiece is the best of the ones I’ve seen. It blends excellent performances, crisp black-and-white photography, an emotionally charged story and covers one of the most significant events in world history. It blends every aspect of great filmmaking into a seemless and touching motion picture.

Coming in second and third are two films that form the beginning of an epic trilogy. The Godfather and The Godfather, Part II are almost one film. They each feature terrific performances and design work but also tell a passionate story about the strength and bond of family, even if they aren’t blood related. The Godfather ranks just about its sequel in terms of quality, but both are worthy additions to the top 5.

Casablanca earns the distinction of the fourth best Oscar winning Best Picture ever. It is a perfect example of brilliant screenwriting. While its quotes are among the most memorable, they each fit seemlessly into a film that redefined how romantic stories could be told.

Fifth place went to All Quiet on the Western Front, one of the first films to look at war from the enemy’s perspective. Adapted from a novel about the horrors of war and the propoganda that suckered many German soldiers into the war, it is one of the most sympathetic war films ever commited to celluloid.

The Bette Davis comedy All About Eve ranks sixth for its amazing performances and entertaining story. Everything fits perfectly together in this Joseph L. Mankiewicz classic about the bitter rivalry between an up-and-coming starlet who backstabs her way to success. The Lost Weekend tackled the difficult subject of alcoholism whem message films weren’t necessarily wanted. Coming as it did at the end of World War II, the Academy showed significant clarity in selecting the small film that centers around only one character and was wholly unrelated to the war.

Finding its way to the 7th position is the Marlon Brando dockside drama On the Waterfront. Celebrating the courageousness of its lead to stand up against the mobsters who ran the docks, Elia Kazan was at his most interesting with this film. Following Waterfront on my list is one of the most recent classics of Academy history. Recognized for its exciting climax to the epic Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Return of the King continued the series’ tradition of outstanding performances, glorious technicals and engaging storytelling. Some might think me crazy for including it so high after so recent a release, but I firmly believe the placement justified.

Rounding out the top ten is Frank Capra’s shrewdly comical It Happened One Night. Though Capra has been accused of watering down his stories to make them more accessible to the general public, his early films allowed the audience to think along with its humor. Clark Gable and Claudette Colbert are wonderful in this little road trip pic.

To look back at the worst Best Picture winners in history, it’s important to begin at the end. Above, I began with the best and worked my way to the bottom of the top ten. Now, I’m starting at the bottom of the worst ten and making my way towards the worst film ever to win Best Picture.

Kicking things off at number 69 is the overlong The Great Ziegfeld. Though the musical numbers are gorgeously designed and the story is interesting, there is a sort of hollowness to the production and the 2 hours of production numbers, that are virtually tangential to the story, make for a substantial waste of time.

Gladiator falls into the 70th position based on its virtual lack of originality. A near remake of the slightly superior Ben-Hur, this Russell Crowe period drama lacks little in the production department, but suffers from rudimentary plotting and less-than-impressive performances. The big upset of last year ranks as the 71st best (or 8th worst) Best Picture winner in history. It is self-important, features relatively weak performances and makes vocal prejudice seem more prevalent than it is.

The westward expansion pic Cimarron takes a lengthy look at the life of a family moving into the Oklahoma territory after the United States opened it for expansion. There isn’t an outstanding performance in the film and it feels more like one of the low quality silent films that had virtually ceased production two years earlier.

Capping the list of the first five worst Best Picture winners is the British import Tom Jones. The film is terrible to look at and is hardly funny. It is a blend between Monty Python style comedy and period drama. The result is a barely watchable pseudo-sexual farce.

The Broadway Melody was the first Talkie to win Best Picture and also the first musical. Its glimpse at the backstage lives of two Broadway-bound Vaudevillian dancers refuses to produce good performances or an original story. Coming in right below it at number 75 on the list of Best Picture winners is the big-top production The Greatest Show on Earth. The film is simply an advertisement for the Ringling Bros.-Barnum & Bailey Circus. Charlton Heston has seldom been worse. The Cecil B. DeMille vanity production’s saving grace is the understated performance of James Stewart.

2001’s dismal character drama A Beautiful Mind is so glaringly pretentious that it makes Crash look like a masterpiece. Ron Howard’s only Best Picture winner is an exercise in simplicity. The story of a man who hears voices is turned into a tale of a man who sees people and secretly works for the CIA.

The penultimate film on the Worst Ten list of Oscar-winning Best Pictures is the haphazard Cavalcade. A film that takes one family through some of British history’s most significant events never embraces its audience and lets its audience develop a sense of compassion for its characters. There are some good performances, but when you don’t care much about the people, that fact doesn’t matter.

And the worst Best Picture winner in Academy history is: Braveheart. A colossal and violent waste of time, this film is bereft of talent, revises history, panders to director Mel Gibson’s inflated ego and fails to reward its audience with anything but blood and guts. Braveheart‘s story of revenge has been told many times and virtually all of them have been better. Were it not for the Academy’s love of actors-turned-directors, this film might have seen its trophy go to any one of a number of best pictures.

There you have it. The best and worst Best Picture winners in history. I hope you’ve all enjoyed taking this trip down memory lane with me and I hope to do more such retrospectives in the future. In two weeks, you can expect to receive my official list of top ten films of 2006 as well as an explosively large update of reviews from said films.

Please note that the previous fifteen weeks’ update information is located on the Reviews page to keep the front page less cluttered as Oscar season looms.

-Wesley Lovell (January 20, 2007)

Producers Guild, Online Film & Television Association and Personal Update

Before starting today’s update with the PGA winners and Online Film & Television Association nominees, let me fill you in on my personal struggles to find warmth. At approximately 8:00am, our power was finally restored. That’s after almost exactly 150 hours without service. It was nice to have a warm home to go to, so I’ll enjoy it tonight (and get some laundry and clean clothes together for tomorrow). Thanks for everyone who had me in their thoughts during this rather trying time and special thanks to Peter P. and Mark B. for their contributions. Now, on with the show!

Last night, the Producers Guild of America made a left field decision and honored the Sundance hit Little Miss Sunshine as the best film of the year. It’s quite obvious that they chose the film that made the biggest return on the dollar, though The Departed or Dreamgirls would have sufficed for that choice. The PGA has thus thrown a huge wrench into the prognostications race. Suffice it to say, this decision won’t have much impact on nominations, but could hvae a huge impact on the Oscar winner if SAG also goes LMS for Best Ensemble.

The PGA also chose Cars as Best Animated Film, which suggests that Happy Feet might not be the surefire winner at the Oscars as everyone was expected. The film came on strong but is regularly being eclipsed by Cars at many year-end awards.

Topping the Online Film & Television Associaiton nominations count was the musical Dreamgirls. Musicals, because of their stellar technicals, often get more nominations than any other film. Thus, it’s no surprise that the movie topped the nomination count with 21 mentions, tying it for the lead with Moulin Rouge and Chicago. While these other three films saw most of their nods in the Adapted Song category, Dreamgirls received five mentions in both categories, three in Original Song and two in Adapted Song. Joining the film as a Best Picture nominee were Children of Men, The Departed, The Queen and United 93.

For a full list of nominees, visit their website linked below.

I’ll be back on Monday after I’ve gotten back into my home, settled and got my internet back up (our satellite service was not interrupted, oddly enough), I will be marking up my FINAL Oscar Predictions. Those will be posted sometime tomorrow. Until then, get out there and watch all those potential Oscar nominees so you can get as pissed off as everyone else on the UAADB at tomorrow’s announcements.

-Wesley Lovell (January 21, 2007)

The Oscar Guy Makes His Final Predictions

Well, tomorrow is the big morning. The 79th Annual Academy Award nominations will be announced. Joining Academy President Sid Ganis will be Best Actress Oscar nominee Salma Hayek. They will announce the nominations in Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Director, Foreign Language Film, Animated Film and Best Picture categories at approximately 5:35am (Pacific).

Likely to top the nominations list will be Dreamgirls, which I’m predicting to carry away at least 11 nominations. In the link below, you’ll find the rest of my predictions for this year’s awards. Most of the top categories seem pretty set with the most surprises due in the Picture and Directing categories. This is due to the abbreviated awards season. We’ll hope for some very interesting shocks but don’t hold your breath for them. The tech categories seem most fluid this year, likely to carry a number of smaller films.

Keep posted right here when I post the nominees as they become available tomorrow morning. I’ll try to have the on-air nominations posted immediately after the announcement and then we’ll have the typical wait for the rest to come trickling in. If I have some time later today (and internet is restored at home), I will do my best to create an Oscar Morning guide so you can keep tally as the nominations are announced.

-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2007)

Oscar Morning Preparation

While most regular people will be reading the nominations after they are announced, the rest of us will be getting up early and watching the presentation. And with the experience of past nominations announcements under our belt, we can use these nominations to help us predict the rest of the nominations to a minor extent. Below is a category by category analysis of how to see nominations coming as they are announced and what to expect.

Supporting Actor: This category should start off with Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine. If Ben Affleck is the first name, then LMS won’t do as well as expected. If Adam Beach is the first name, Flags of Our Fathers should be among the Best Picture nominees. Jackie Earle Haley is the next name on the list. If his is first, then be prepared for either Michael Sheen, Brad Pitt or Mark Wahlberg as nominees. If Wahlberg gets nominated, The Departed might just top the nomination count, but unlikely. After Haley should be Djimon Hounsou followed by Eddie Murphy and Jack Nicholson. If Nicholson doesn’t make the cut, Wahlberg might. An early surprise could be Alec Baldwin as the first name on the list for The Departed which would make for an interesting morning. If Eddie Murphy doesn’t make it, it seems unlikely that Bill Condon will make the Best Director cut and the film could be hindered.

Supporting Actress: The second category announced is this category. Look for three Bs to be announced. Adriana Barraza should be first followed by Cate Blanchett and then Abigail Breslin (if Little Miss Sunshine does incredibly well). Be wary of a fourth B, Emily Blunt, sneaking into the race. Following the aforementioned three should be Jennifer Hudson and then Rinko Kikuchi. Catherine O’Hara’s only chance is if Breslin isn’t one of the first three and Emily Blunt isn’t among the nominees. Shareeka Epps could also sneak in preventing O’Hara’s nomination. If Anika Noni Rose gets a nomination for Dreamgirls, the likelihood of another tie of the 12-nom record becomes extremely high and a breaking of that record even more so.

Actor: This category should see the second fewest number of surprises of the morning. If Sacha Baron Cohen is to get a nod, he’ll be the first name on the list. Otherwise, expect Leonardo DiCaprio to be the first name. The question will be whether for The Departed or Blood Diamond. Matt Damon would also need to be one of the first two names to be a surprise nominee. Ryan Gosling should be second. If there are two names already announced prior to Peter O’Toole, then he might be left off entirely. O’Toole should be the third name followed by Will Smith. If O’Toole is the fourth name on the list, Will Smith will be the nominee left off in favor of the almost certainly last name: Forest Whitaker. Ken Watanbe could also take Smith’s fourth-name position and that would indicate that Letters from Iwo Jima will be among the Best Picture nominees.

Actress: There is no question what this category will look like. The names announced will be Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet. If Cruz isn’t first and Dench is, the second name could be Beyonce Knowles. If her’s isn’t second and Mirren’s is, Naomi Watts could be the farthest left field inclusion we’ve seen in some time.

Director: Though we recognize directors names as much as we do film, this category is presented unusually. It is alphabetized by film name, not by director’s name. That means Babel should be first. This should be followed by The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. If Babel is not there, Letters from Iwo Jima could be the third listed name or United 93 could be the last. If Babel, The Departed and Dreamgirls are the first three names and Letters from Iwo Jima is the fourth, then the fifth should be The Queen. If Dreamgirls isn’t third, Letters could be third and if it’s not, then United 93 would be last.

Original Screenplay: Babel should be the first on this list. Little Miss Sunshine should follow it. The rest would then be The Queen, United 93 and then Volver. The latter of these two could easily be replaced by Stranger Than Fiction, For Your Consideration or Pan’s Labyrinth.

Adapted Screenplay: Children of Men leading off this list would indicate the film might end up a Best Picture nominee. This would be helped more if he also ended up a Best Director nominee announced earlier. The three Ds should be next The Departed, The Devil Wears Prada and Dreamgirls. The last on the list should be Little Children. If Dreamgirls stumbles, it will be here and could be replaced by Notes on a Scandal or Thank You for Smoking. If Borat was a nominee for Best Actor, then it could also appear as the first screenplay listed ou in this category.

Foreign Language Film: With only 9 films to choose form, it should be easily, though that branch of the Academy has been known to muck things up with their choices. The order should be Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Pan’s Labyrinth, Volver and then Water. If Days of Glory isn’t the first name on the list, that name could be either Avenue Montaigne or Black Book.

Animated Film: With the question of eligibility on Arthur and the Invisibles, this category could only fit three nominees. If Happy Feet is the second name listed afte Cars, then the category contains only three names. If Flushed Away is second, either Happy Feet or Monster House didn’t make the final cut of three or there will be five films. If Happy Feet is third, then Monster House and Over the Hedge should follow. Ice Age getting a nod would be either second or third in the list knocking out either Flushed Away or Over the Hedge. If you’re actually watching the nominees, you’ll know for a fact that there are only three nominees if, because they use five TV screens to show the nominees, they start at the top left instead of the bottom left.

Picture: This category should lead off with Babel. If it’s not there and neither is Bobby, then Children of Men would most likely be the first nominee listed. If The Departed is, then either Letters from Iwo Jima or United 93 may have snuck in. Dreamgirls should follow The Departed. After that, it will either be Letters from Iwo Jima or Little Miss Sunshine. If Letters isn’t there, United 93 could be the last name announced. The Queen should follow as the last name or, if not last, United 93 would be last.

It’s tough to go through all the possibilities in such a volatile year, but with the above, you should be able to expect certain things just by watching. Below, you will also find the Nominations page which currently features a full alphabetical list of all of the nominees from my Hopefuls page. You’re welcome to print this out and follow along.

-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2007)

79th Annual Academy Awards Nominations

The nominations are IN! And boy what a load of surprises!

Normally, the shocks wouldn’t be the omissions but the surprise inclusions over notably weaker competition. This year, however, the biggest shock of them all was the exclusion of Dreamgirls for Best Picture. It managed to still top the nomination count with 8 but it’s only top nominations were for Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy.

There are three factors that typically impact the Best Picture winner. Most nominations, a Best Director nomination and a Best Editing nomination. The latter two factors only favor Babel and The Departed. Since neithe topped the actual nomination count, we see that Babel leads the count among Best Picture nominees, which puts it in the lead for the Oscar. The Departed still seems solid for Best Director, but its dismal nomination count (5 with Leonardo DiCaprio getting a nod for Blood Diamond instead and no Jack Nicholson), may spell trouble for the film. Little Miss Sunshine is hindered with only four nods and no mentions for Director or Editing. The Queen and Letters from Iwo Jima are in decent standing having picked up Director nods themselves.

Posted below, find my list of nominations and my list of predictions for the upcoming awards. Much could change after this weekend’s Screen Actors Guild awards, so stay tuned as we see how the DGA also impacts the race.

-Wesley Lovell (January 23, 2007)

Screen Actors Guild Awards

With the 13th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards now completed, we have a virtually stone-set group of acting front-runners and an unusually close Best Picture race. While Little Miss Sunshine is as likely to be the next The Full Monty, there’s something to be said for its dominance of this year’s awards season. WIthout a director nomination, LMS could become the first film since Driving Miss Daisy and only the fourth film in Academy history to win the Best Picture award without a corresponding nod.

That said, Babel and The Departed took a hit here without a single award, being shut out by Oscar also-ran Dreamgirls. No matter which film wins Best Picture, we may have the lowest overall awards total of any film since Grand Hotel in 1932 when there were only 12 categories. If the Directors Guild of America goes predictably for Martin Scorsese then it may well be anyone’s guess. If by some bizarre twist of fate Scorsese loses again and Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris win, then Little Miss Sunshine can’t lose…but there will be a LOT of venom for the DGA from critics and cineastes alike.

-Wesley Lovell (January 28, 2007)

Harry Potter Release Date

J.K. Rowling and Scholastic have announced the release date of the final Harry Potter novel Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows. Below is a link to Amazon.com’s pre-order of both the standard and deluxe editions of the book. I highly recommend purchasing the book through this link below.

  • Link Removed.

-Wesley Lovell (February 2, 2007)

Presenter Announcements Begin

Over the coming weeks, leading up to the 79th Academy Awards on February 25, the producers of the televised ceremony will unveil the presenters they have locked into appearing.

Today’s announcement features Supporting Actor winner George Clooney who will likely present, per tradition, Supporting Actress this year. Also announced were Cameron Diaz, Eva Green and Hugh Jackman.

As time goes on, we’ll see if any of the winners of the top categories last year will be back. Watch for announcements of Reese Witherspoon, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Rachel Weisz and maybe, though not necessarily likely, Ang Lee.

Another tradition is the song performances. This year, we could see Jennifer Hudson, Beyoncé Knowles, Eddie Murphy, Melissa Etheridge and Randy Newman as performers. These have traditionally been announced together, so we may have to wait a few weeks for them to get commitments from everyone. Note that reports I’ve read say Hudson is confirmed already to present, but we’ll wait for official Academy press releases to set that in stone.

While I won’t be updating this section every time a presenter is announced, keep a look out at the link below and in the menu on the left for the updates. Generally these announcements come once a day and generally in the afternoon. However, this early in the game, they may be slow in coming but expect the announcements to be more frequent as we get closer to the 25th.

-Wesley Lovell (February 2, 2007)

Directors Guild of America

The DGA finally recognized Martin Scorsese as Best Director this year for his work on The Departed. This ends much speculation that the DGA award might go elsewhere as it has in the past and helps cement Marty’s Oscar chances. What it doesn’t do is help us narrow down the selection of the eventual Best Picture winner. That remains anyone’s guess at this point.

Little Miss Sunshine, Babel and The Departed all seem seem like such strong contenders that split votes could result in either Letters from Iwo Jima or The Queen winning the top prize. This remains an open race that perhaps the Writers Guild can shine a light on the proceedings.

-Wesley Lovell (February 3, 2007)

2006 Year in Review

I won’t ruin the surprise of what film tops my list of the top of 2006. You’ll have to read the article at the link below. Fourteen films scored three-and-a-half stars or better, ten of which made the final ten. Take a look at my updated article below. Within the article are links to each of the films within said list, which have all been posted today.

-Wesley Lovell (February 7, 2007)

Online Film & Television Association Announce Awards

The Online Film & Television Association announced its 11th Annual winners today. Marking the first time in OFTA history, the Best Picture winner did not match up with any other precursor, giving its award to Children of Men. Though Men took the top prize, it came in second in the overall victory tabulation to top nominee Dreamgirls.

Other top winners matched up perfectly with many predictions for this year’s awards. This year will see the OFTA fail to match Best Picture winners with the Academy for the fifth time. This is only the second time that this group has selected a film as Best Picture that wasn’t also nominated by the Academy (the previous entry was Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind two years ago).

For a full list of winners, check out the link below.

-Wesley Lovell (February 11, 2007)

Writers Guild of America

The Writers Guild of America tossed Babel a curve ball on Sunday when it selected Little Miss Sunshine as Best Original Screanplay. The choice further adds disperity to this year’s Oscar race making LMS an even more likely choice for Best Picture.

The Adapted Screenplay award went as expected to The Departed setting it up to win that category on Sunday the 25th.

Babel, a slightly better film than Little Miss Sunshine only failed to be eclipsed by the "little comedy that could" when it trumped The Departed to win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globe awards. However, it has managed to lose countless awards since then including WGA, PGA and DGA awards. However, it’s subject matter seems far more of a fit in this strange year lacking in front-runners and may still take the top prize at this year’s awards.

-Wesley Lovell (February 12, 2007)

Pre-Oscar Monday Update

The big night is almost here! If you’ve been watching the Oscar Night Countdown clock at the top right of my page, you know how extremely close the ceremony is. This coming Sunday, all of the world will find out what films take home Oscars.

This week is going to be filled with updates. These won’t necessarily come daily, but you won’t be disappointd in the content.

Starting off today, I’ve updated quite a few precursor Awards that have been handed out recently, especially including five big tech guilds: American Cinema Editors, American Society of Cinematographers, Art Directors Guild, Costume Designers Guild and Cinema Audio Society. These organizations while not the perfect models of Oscar prognostication, certainly give us clues to the eventual winner. Some of the choices were surprising and some gave us no help whatsoever. However, instead of going into my thoughts here, you’ll have to wait until an update later this week…

Starting Wednesday, after ballots are in and all the influences that could possibly have been felt are held at bay, I’m going to be posting my annual Oscar handicapping articles. If you visit the Articles section you can see my thoughts on last year. This year, I must be more astute as the non-acting categories seem likely for upsets.

There may also be other presenters announced this week, those will be updated as I get them.

Other than that, my final predictions will go up Saturday evening or Sunday morning depending on the speed of result for the Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild awards. Though I don’t think they’ll have much impact, some surprise might give us pause in our predictions.

Until then, enjoy what you’ve got here and stay tuned for Wednesday’s Oscar Article opening with the tech categories.

-Wesley Lovell (February 19, 2007)

79th Academy Awards Predictions Articles: Tech

There are some years that there is little fun in predicting the winners. The year Titanic swept, there was little to do except predict smaller categories which were far from suspenseful. This year, however, we are faced with a multitude of races that could be won by the smallest of margins. So, to handicap the 79th Academy Awards, I’ve put together three predictions articles that look in depth at each race up for the year’s big prizes and analyze it to see if we can find anything from history to point us towards a high accuracy rating.

Today, we begin with the Tech categories. These eight awards are usually harbingers of things to come later in the evening. WIth the exception of the Editing category, the dearth of Best Picture contenders makes them far less predictive than in past years. Nevertheless, we’ll press on with our predictions. Tomorrow, the second tier categories will be discussed.

-Wesley Lovell (February 21, 2007)

79th Academy Awards Predictions Articles: Second Tier

We continue our annual peak into the year’s Oscar race with a glimpse at this year’s Secodn Tier categories. Featuring the writing and music categories, these are sometimes predictive of what might happen when the final envelope is opened.

Many of my predictions have been pretty fluid since I started writing this article. I have not yet updated my Predictions page, so do not go by it for my official predictions. These are being made in a spreadsheet that will be updated once my final article goes out tomorrow.

-Wesley Lovell (February 22, 2007)

79th Academy Awards Predictions Articles: Top Six

The final article of my Oscar Predictions Trilogy has been posted below. The top six categories are probably the easiest to predict with only Best Picture being somewhat of a mystery. However, I’ve fearlessly made my predictions (though, keep in mind, I have right up until Sunday morning to make my final predictions should anything change).

I will also be posting the results live on this website and on the message boardSunday evening, so if you’re near a coputer and don’t have a party to go to, share memories with us and watch as countless people moan and groan about the winners shortly after they are announced!

Also check out the final updated predictions at the link below. Each category is ordered in the order I think they are most likely to win. And the Academy has released the last list of names for presenters. You can check that out in the left column or at the link below.

-Wesley Lovell (February 23, 2007)

Independent Spirit Awards

Three groups were to have announced awards yesterday. I’ve only been able to access one of those groups, the Independent Spirit Awards. The Motion Picture Sound Editors have not provided press releases on their winners, so I have not been able to locate that data and the Razzie Awards I wouldn’t update here anyway.

The ISA went as expected heavily towards Little Miss Sunshine which won Picture, Director, First Screenplay and Supporting Actor for Alan Arkin. The only other film to win multiple trophies was Half-Nelson which won for Lead Actor and Actress Ryan Gosling and Shareeka Epps. For the full list, visit the Precursor Awards link below and see where they compare in the tallies at the appropriate link. I’ll update the MPSE as soon as I find the data.

-Wesley Lovell (January 25, 2007)

Oscar Night Preparations

The day we’ve all been waiting for is here. The Academy Awards ceremony begins tonight. After last year’s disastrous events, tonight’s ceremony may be a little more laid back. That’s because no front-runner is safe (except maybe Helen Mirren). Even expected winners like Forest Whitaker and Jennifer Hudson could lose their trophies to others.

To help everyone get a sense of how things are going in the night, I’m preparing this guide. It’s nothing like my guides of past years, I’ll simply be listing each picture and the categories where a win might signal something for the big award.

After my last article was posted, I had someone ask me if I really think it’s possible that my predicted winner of Best Picture, Babel, might end up as I have predicted without a single other Oscar. It’s never happened to a multiple-nominee before (Grand Hotel won Best Picture, its only nomination, back in 1932). The best way I can answer that is: statistically, it’s possible. Let’s say 5,000 members of the Academy vote. A film to win Best Picture only needs 1,001 votes. That means it’s rivals could have at max 1,000 votes each (with the fifth a paltry 999 votes. Now, let’s say the voters for The Departed (1,000) and The Queen (1,000) all prefer other choices to Babel in the categories in which it’s nominated. That’s 2,000 votes, which is already enough to win. So, it is entirely possible for it to happen.

However, this event is unlikely…I just can’t find a category in which Babel will really excel if trends persist. Now, I think it’s entirely possible that The Departed or Little Miss Sunshine will win Best Picture (hell, even The Queen and Letters from Iwo Jima have an equal shot). No victory will surprise me this year. Many will sadden me, but none will surprise.

Babel – This film feels so much like Crash that it’s scary. It has 7 nominations, but can only win a maximum of six (two Supporting Actresses aren’t likely to tie). Its scoring nomination is the only award it may pick up in addition to Best Picture, but may not. If it wins Original Screenplay and Editing, the chances of a victory for Best Picture rise. If it wins Supporting Actress and/or Director, then I guarantee it will be selected Best Picture.

The Departed – We already know Scorsese has his trophy in the bag (or does he? haven’t we been here before?) and Adapted Screenplay seems like it’s in the bag, so those categories won’t give us any indicate (unless it loses both, at which point we know Departed is NOT going to be best picture). While an Editing win won’t be a shock it might be an indication that the film will win Best Picture. If Mark Wahlberg wins, then I guarantee it will be selected Best Picture.

Little Miss Sunshine – The film with only four nominations feels too much like crowd pleaser The Full Monty to be a winner here. However, it could still win. It’s a safe bet that it will win Original Screenplay. If Alan Arkin wins, then Best Picture will be significantly more likely. If Abigail Breslin wins, Best Picture is virtually guaranteed.

The Queen – It also has an award locked down. Its trophy for Mirren is as sure a thing as we’ve ever seen. A win in Original Score won’t be shocking but a victory in Original Screenplay could be a good sign. The true test will be if it wins Costume Design and/or Director. At that point, I would guarantee a Best Picture victory.

Letters from Iwo Jima – Four nominations and only one potential victory, Sound Editing. If Clint Eastwood takes Best Director or the film wins for Original Screenplay, you can pretty much bet safely that it will win Best Picture.

It’s difficult to find a year that the front-runner in Best Picture has been virtually non-existent. I haven’t seen so many disparate predictions for the top prize since I’ve been doing this. So, if I’m right, I’ll be happy. If I’m wrong, I won’t be upset. There are a few contests that I will be severely disappointed to see go the wrong direction, but for the first time in a very long time, I so emotionally detached from the Best Picture winner that I really couldn’t care less which one wins.

My final predictions are up. They won’t be changing anymore. And as the last rays of sun set below the horizon in Los Angeles, we’ll all be sitting in front of some sort of television to watch this year’s festivities. If you don’t have access, come back often to catch the winners as they are announced.

-Wesley Lovell (February 25, 2007)

THE 79TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS

The Winners have been announced. Check the link below and check tomorrow for my take on this year’s Oscars.

-Wesley Lovell (February 25, 2007)

79th Academy Awards Wrap Up

The 79th Academy Awards went off with nary a hitch. The Awards were all over the place resulting in a wide variety of winning predictions. Below is a link to my Oscar follow up article taking a look at this year’s ceremony. I examine what worked and what didn’t and include the biggest surprises, mistakes and successes.

I’ve also updated my winners prediction success rate. It isn’t my best year, nor is it my worst, so I don’t feel terribly bad. And since things weren’t incredibly predictable, I’m not seriously upset.

-Wesley Lovell (February 25, 2007)

Dawn of a New Day

Actually, it’s been many dawns since the suspenseful 79th Academy Awards shuttered its cameras. But, I’m speaking to the future of the website. With my title, I can’t exactly play the death of the website for a joke, so I’ll get right to what I’m about to announce.

In order to broaden my selections, I’ll be adding a new section to the website within the coming weeks. This addition will focus on film previews and an examination of pre-release Oscar prospects. As each trailer is posted, I will provide a review of my expectations for the film, what you as a viewer might expect and a forecast to the prospects the film might have at the Academy Awards. This content will also bridge to my review should I see the film (which means lots of trailer reviews without companion film criticism).

The end result should help you decide what films to avoid and for which films you should spend your hard-earned money.

-Wesley Lovell (March 13, 2007)

Three Major Announcements

Today, we make three very special announcements.

The first is that our newest section is finally up. The Trailers & Posters area is now available for you to peruse. There are more than one hundred trailer reviews available along with poster reviews and a special segment discussing the films’ Oscar prospects.

Moving on to our second announcement, we would like to prepare you for a new look. Coming soon to this site is a dazzling new design which will be accompanied by some great new content. The News Section will be completely overhauled and two writers will be moving in.

Wes Huizar has graciously agreed to do the new artwork for the site and will be providing significantly more in-depth analysis of the weekend box office than I was providing. He’ll also be contributing some very intriguing box office statistics having to do with the Oscars.

Peter J. Patrick, who has long been providing terrific DVD content for the message board will be putting together regular reports on upcoming DVD releases.

I welcome both of these gentlemen to the team and hope that their content is every bit as valuable to you as it is to me. Look to see these changes sometime within the next month.

The final announcement is not site-related but has to do with the Academy Awards. Last week, the Academy announced the timetable for the 80th Annual Academy Awards. Below is that list and the Countdown above has been changed to represent the date and time of next year’s Oscar nominations.

  • Mon. Dec. 3, 2007: Official Screen Credits
  • Wed. Dec. 26, 2007: Nominations ballots mailed
  • Sat. Jan. 12, 2008: Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PST
  • Tue. Jan. 22, 2008: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PST, Samuel Goldwyn Theater
  • Wed. Jan. 30, 2008: Final ballots mailed
  • Mon. Feb. 4, 2008: Nominees Luncheon
  • Sat. Feb. 9, 2008: Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards presentation
  • Tue. Feb. 19, 2008: Final polls close 5 p.m. PST
  • Sun. Feb. 24, 2008: 80th Annual Academy Awards presentation.

-Wesley Lovell (March 28, 2007)

80th Hopefuls Update

This time of the year brings two major events. The first is the start of the Summer movie season. The second is the beginning of my Oscar prognostications. Today, I release my first predictions for the 80th Academy Awards. These predictions are highly speculative and are guaranteed to change at least ten times before my final predictions are announced next January.

Still, it’s a bit fun to look at what’s coming and try to pick out the films that will be hits with Oscar and see which will falter trying to cross the finish line. I don’t make predictions on Original Song because this data’s seldom available before the last film releases for the year. There is a section for Documentary Short Subjects that will be filled in when the Academy announces the short list. Foreign Language Film features a number of films from several different countries that may or may not compete, but could. The full list is below.

-Wesley Lovell (May 1, 2007)

The New DVD Report

As The Oscar Guy website prepares for its new look, we’ve already begun our expansion of coverage. Today, we welcome Peter J. Patrick with his first weekly issue of The DVD Report.

Every Tuesday, Peter will use his immense knowledge of film history to provide our readers with a look at the week’s new DVD releases and help them to make informed decisions on those films that might otherwise slip by your radar. The articles will also feature links to all of the DVDs discussed and a sidebar including the Top 10 DVD Sales and DVD Rentals, and a full list of released DVDs for the week.

-Wesley Lovell (May 8, 2007)

My Kingdom for a Horse

The title of this update has absolutely nothing to do with it. It was just the first thing that popped into my head as I was writing this. Anyway, today’s update is a massive one. There were countless new posters and trailers available and thus it took much longer to get done than usual.

Somewhat tangentially, I often go to the movies on Monday nights. This generally allows me to review a new movie each week. However, I’ve been hard-pressed to find the time to update my reviews, so I made myself a pledge. Every Saturday when I’m updating the trailers pages, I’ll also be putting together at least one review (hopefully and preferably two). One of the reviews I post will be a new movie from the previous weekend (if there were any to see) or another film that I’d seen in the past week. The second review (if I’m able to get to it) will be of a film that I’ve already seen this year. There will also be some Hollywood classics thrown in for good measure.

So, now there are two days of updates you can look forward to. Saturdays for new film, trailer and poster reviews and Tuesdays for the new DVD Report.

-Wesley Lovell (May 12, 2007)

Another Week of Updates

We have another week of updates. Although I don’t have any news for you on the site’s new design, I at least have the normal weekly allotment of updates. Tuesday updates still push on Tuesdays and Saturday updates still push on Saturdays. Feel free to check those pages even if I don’t post the links in my personal updates. They will always be there by midnight.

-Wesley Lovell (May 26, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (May 22, 2007)

A Delayed Update

Due to a number of mitigating circumstances this week, I was unable to fully update the site yesterday. However, today, I have posted two new reviews, updated all of the trailer pages to correct broken links and I happily remind you of the DVD report and other reports from this past week.

-Wesley Lovell (June 3, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (May 29, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (June 5, 2007)

This Week’s Update

As the site expands, the bandwidth expands as well. In order to decrease the bandwidth, I’m going to start opening the Archive sooner. This page, the Box Office and Film Release Schedule pages will all be updated to a regular archive schedule. At the beginning of each month, anything that’s over two months out of date will be shifted to the archive page. You can find a link to the Archive at the bottom of the pages being archived.

Also be aware that due to an issue with the site re-design, it will not be up as quickly as I’d hoped. However, I’ve started working on my own new set of graphics, so we should have something hopefully soon.

This archive update accompanies this week’s regular update. I did not get to the movies this past week, nor will I next week. So, this week, I’m reviewing one from from 2007 and another film from the past.

-Wesley Lovell (June 9, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (June 12, 2007)

This Week’s Update

I was out of town this week watching an amazing touring production of Wicked, so I am running a bit behind. There will not be any Film Reviews posted this week, but the trailers section has been updated. Next week, I’ll definitely yield some reviews as we have Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer on our schedule for Monday. In addition, I’ll be posting my penultimate “catch-up” review. I’ll surprise you in a week with whether I’ve chosen to review Epic Movie or Ghost Rider.

-Wesley Lovell (June 16, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (June 20, 2007)

Week Ending June 23

I lament never finding a Saturday with only a handful of new trailers to post. It would mean I could get this update out on a Saturday for a change. However, we have to settle for a Sunday update.

As anyone who knows something about themes will have guessed, I decided to pair Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer with the other comic-book-adapted feature Ghost Rider. This year’s significant lack of quality does suggest a bubble bursting in the comic book genre, but we won’t likely see the end of it until well into the 2010s, which is unfortunate. Let’s just hope The Dark Knight isn’t a disappointment.

-Wesley Lovell (June 24, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (June 26, 2007)

Week Ending June 30

It is an amazingly slow week for trailer updates despite there being four completely new films. So, I finally get a short weekend and you do too. After all, it is the pre-July 4th holiday weekend.

For the past couple of weeks (this week excluded), there have been 2008 films with trailer presentations. However, in my haste to get my posts up, I neglected to include a proper link to the 2008 page. You’ll find below now two links to the trailer pages. The ever-broader 2007 page and the three-title 2008 page.

-Wesley Lovell (June 30, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (July 3, 2007)

Week Ending July 7

Well, I’m out of films from 2007 to review, so each week now you’ll be getting the film I saw the previous Monday and one film from the past either in desperate need of an update or one that I have not yet reviewed. This week, we take one of Pixar’s best films and put it next to the greatest film of its generation. Ratatouille and Citizen Kane are as different as can be, but sometimes you have to celebrate the diversity of filmmaking.

There are lots of new posters and trailers to choose from, both in the 2007 section and the 2008. Peter’s DVD report is his shortest yet but with an exceptionally weak week for DVD releases, he did his best with a holiday-themed edition.

As it is also the beginning of July, all of April’s new content has been archived.

-Wesley Lovell (July 7, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (July 10, 2007)

Week Ending July 14

With a glut of new trailers, I decided I’d just write one review this week. So, you get this past weeks’ film release plus four new 2008 trailers, fourteen 2007 trailers and a few other updates.

-Wesley Lovell (July 14, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (July 17, 2007)

Week Ending July 21

With the release of the seventh Harry Potter book and the fifth movie, I thought it only appropriate to do an entire day of updates looking back at the reviews of all five Harry Potter films. I must also put them each in perspective as I believe they should be ranked.

  1. Prisoner of Azkaban (3rd)
  2. Goblet of Fire (4th)
  3. Chamber of Secrets (2nd)
  4. Order of the Phoenix (5th)
  5. Sorcerer’s Stone (1st)

As you can see the fourth film was quite a bit of a let down after the rising quality of the productions since Chris Columbus left. However, all are still amazingly engaging films. You can find out more details as you peruse the reviews. Also important to note are the release dates of the final two films:

Half-Blood Prince releases November 21, 2008. Deathly Hallows has no official release date but will be opening in 2010, finishing off a decade of films.

-Wesley Lovell (July 21, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (July 24, 2007)

Week Ending July 28

The last update for July is here. Although we have no new reviews (I didn’t see anything at the theater this week), we have plenty of new trailers and posters to look at. There isn’t much more of interest this week, so stay tuned for our next update on Tuesday and prepare yourself for a site layout change which should be coming by the end of August.

-Wesley Lovell (July 28, 2007)

Online Film & Television Association Television Awards

The OFTA announced today the nominees for its 11th Annual Television Awards. Check out the link below for their site and find out who and what was nominated.

-Wesley Lovell (July 24, 2007)

Ingmar Bergman Dead at 89

Legendary filmmaker Ingmar Bergman (1918-2007) passed away Monday at the age of 89. His film repetoire is among the most celebrated and important in film history.

Bergman never received an Academy Award, despite being nomianted nine times. He received the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award from the Academy in 1970.

His filmography is filled with more than a dozen pictures that have been celebrated by many critics and historians around the world. Smiles of a Summer Night, The Seventh Seal, Wild Strawberries, Through a Glass Darkly, Persona, Shame, Cries and Whispers, Scenes from a Marriage, Face to Face, Autumn Sonata and Fanny & Alexander are just a few of titles in his impressive oeuvre.

There are none who could replace him and few who could challenge his talent and ability. He will be sorely missed.

-Wesley Lovell (July 30, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (July 31, 2007)

Week Ending August 4

Lots of new trailers and posters today, both from 2007 and 2008. Also, a new review in the form of The Simpsons Movie. The new design is coming along nicely, but quite a bit of data still needs to be imported. You can get an idea of some of the changes by taking a look at the UAADB page and see the new logo for that page. The new main logo should look quite similar in the end.

-Wesley Lovell (August 4, 2007)

Week Ending August 11

-Wesley Lovell (August 7, 2007)

Construction

Please be advised that today’s normal update has been delayed. I am working hard to finish my updates to the site before I head back to work on Monday. So, you should, hopefully, see that redesign I promised so long ago by the end of the weekend. Thank you for your patience. When the update goes out, you may find your access to the site limited. The UAADB will still be up, but I will have to remove the old site from the server and update the new site, so things are guaranteed to be down for an hour or more, probably some time on Sunday.

-Wesley Lovell (August 12, 2007)

Welcome to the New Site

The new site is finally up! While I wish that I could have everything up I wanted, we’ll have to make do with what we have. The Reviews pages for 1996 through 2005 are not finalized and will be updated soon. The Oscars History section is a little bare as many of the pages have not been transferred yet. Several pages have been moved to new locations. Box Office is now located in the Reviews section and the Release Schedule is now in the Previews section. Speaking of Previews, the Trailers & Posters section is now the Previews area. There are several other changes, but I’ll let you explore a little.

This past Saturday’s updates have been pushed off to this coming Saturday, so new Previews will start appearing this coming Saturday.

-Wesley Lovell (August 12, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (August 14, 2007)

Week Ending August 18

Here we are with my long-postponed update from last week. There are lots of new trailers and posters, plus some moves. Charlie Bartlett has been officially pushed back to 2008. I have shifted it to that year in all my sections. I have not posted a new review as today’s update was rather large, so hopefully I’ll get those going again next week.

-Wesley Lovell (August 18, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (August 21, 2007)

Week Ending August 25

Another week without new reviews. Sure there were fewer new previews this week, but I’ve been working on the remaining updates for the site, so you’ll have to wait another week or two for me to get back in the swing of things. But let me promise you this: Around Halloween, I will be posting a series of reviews looking back at a specific series of horror films that hold a place in my heart. If you can figure it out, I’ll give you a cookie; but you’d have to fly to my home town to claim it.

-Wesley Lovell (August 25, 2007)

-Wesley Lovell (August 28, 2007)

Week Ending September 1

One of these weeks I’ll get caught up on reviews. Until then, have some fun with this week’s new trailers. There aren’t many polished gems, but a few unpolished ones released with a few clunkers.

-Wesley Lovell (September 1, 2007)

Oscar Hopefuls and Other Updates

The full transition to the new design is progressing nicely. There are still several areas left to update, but they are coming along quite nicely. The biggest update yet is my first update to my Oscar Hopefuls page since May. There weren’t many changes, but enough to remove several clunkers and even a film pushed to next year (The Other Boleyn Girl).

Saturday will be my next Previews Update, which you’ll be able to find linked below tomorrow.

-Wesley Lovell (August 12, 2007)

September 4 Update

-Wesley Lovell (September 4, 2007)

Week Ending September 8

For those of you who check in frequently to this page to see what updates (even if you don’t already know when my regular updates occur), I want to let you know that thanks to the new graphic links above, I won’t be updating this front page nearly as frequently. Instead, I’ll be updating the associated pages.

This was my original intention with the new layout, but I couldn’t break the habit I’d developed over the past year. So, from this point forward, all of my regular updates will be on the associated pages. Previews will be discussed on the Previews page. Reviews hashed out on the Reviews page and so forth.

Peter’s DVD section is also going to see a couple of changes just to make it easier to navigate and decrease the weight of his pages (there are nearly 50 links in each of his reports and that generally leads to up to 600 links on one page). Along with graphics and text, that means his page is perpetually overloading itself by size. That layout and design will be arriving with his regular weekly update on Tuesday this coming week.

With the next Hopefuls update, a history section will be added to the page where I’ll discuss the changes that have occurred so you can keep track without having to sort through the entire thing (that is if I don’t just say: “too many updates to detail, so here are a few notable changes.” At that point, you’ll just have to sift through yourself).

So, the links that would normally follow this post have been removed. You’ll need to click on the appropriately-updated link above. Oh…and the picture associated with this post does tie in tangentially.

-Wesley Lovell (September 8, 2007)

Major Oscar Updates

I’ve been working on updates to The Oscars section for some time and the first look at the fruit of my efforts is up. Check out The Oscars section and see what’s available. Also updating this week are all the previews from the previous week and a new review for The Nanny Diairies. Check those pages for more information.

-Wesley Lovell (September 15, 2007)

Documentary Short Finalists

The first finalists for the 80th Academy Awards have been announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. To find the nominees, check out the Oscar Hopefuls page and find the official eight contenders for the Documentary Short Subject award.

For now, I have not made predictions in this category. The reason is that I’ve only found information on five of the eight contenders and without knowing more I cannot make an educated guess. If you have details about If It Happens, Portraits of a Lady or La Corona (The Crown), please let me know.

-Wesley Lovell (October 11, 2007)

Foreign Language Film Finalists

About once every week, we’ll probably start seeing the “contenders” for all of the categories that have early deadlines. The Foreign Language Film submissions are usually first, but were pre-empted by the Documentary Short finalists. However, the selections have been announced and a record 63 countries have submitted work. Check out the 80th Oscars page linked above and click on the Foreign Language Film page to see a full list of the cntenders. My Hopefuls list will be updated soon.

-Wesley Lovell (October 18, 2007)

Link Errors

It has come to my attention that the Home->Contact menu item has been linking to an invalid page. I have updated this data and you should now be able to use that page to contact. If all else fails, there is a contact link at the bottom of the page that I have verified works perfectly. The process of updating can take several hours but should be completd by mid-morning.

-Wesley Lovell (October 22, 2007)

Halloween Retrospective

In preparation for Halloween, Peter launches a week of fun with his look back at his favorite horror films from cinema history. I’ll be chiming in later in the week, and Saturday, stay tuned for a Reviews update with my favorite horror film series ever.

The link errors have been corrected, so you can now send me emails through the Contact page.

-Wesley Lovell (October 23, 2007)

Halloween Retrospective

The Halloween update is here. Check out the reviews section to see which film series I selected to review for my special Halloween update.

All other pages are a little behind on the update because of a long weekend that resulted in little work getting done. Because these issues may keep coming up, some updates will be pushed to Sunday or Tuesday at the latest.

-Wesley Lovell (October 31, 2007)

Animated Feature Finalists

Don’t get all excited that the above link to Oscar Hopefuls has been updated. My new predictions are actually still being worked on. This update is only to list the 12 official finalists for the Animated Feature category at the Oscars. The predictions may have adjusted accordingly.

Normally, I have to remove dozens of films and add three or four. This year, I only had three changes. Foodfight! and Happily N’Ever After are out. Tekkonkinkreet, a film about which I’ve heard nothing, is in.

Keep an eye out, though. Sometime in the next week, I will be posting my November predictions for this year’s Oscars.

-Wesley Lovell (November 10, 2007)

New Hopefuls Update

After the critics panned Lions for Lambs and the talk of Away from Her persists, I’ve made some adjustments to my Oscar Hopefuls. We have several other changes, including my first predictions for the Documentary Short category. There Will Be Blood may also be a big threat and Atonement has not lost much luster.

-Wesley Lovell (November 11, 2007)

Documentary Feature Finalists

The Documentary committee, in their always infinite “wisdom”, have announced only 15 contenders for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar. You can find those now updated on the Hopefuls page linked above. I’ve also made my new predictions considering those contenders.

-Wesley Lovell (November 19, 2007)

The First Precursor: The Spirit Awards

Once called the Independent Spirit Awards, the Spirit Awards recognize American productions made on budgets less than $20 M. This eliminates a number of small budget films that either made too much money or were produced outside the U.S. However, looking at the list gives us some interesting indicators as to what performances could be seen at the Oscars. While seldom more than 1 or 2 productions make it from each category, the preponderance of weakened big studio productions could be a boon for the Spirit Awards. Just visit the 80th Oscars Link above to find the full list of nominees.

-Wesley Lovell (November 27, 2007)

Precursor: The Satellite Awards

Coming out of nowhere, the Satellite Awards, presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press off-shoot the International Press Academy. Their awards are designed to have a more critical eye than the more populist Golden Globes. Their prediction capabilities are terrible, though they have a better shot with 12 Films competing for the top award and 12 actors and actresses in their categories. Several films did not screen for the critics before the deadline, thus why films like Sweeney Todd and Charlie Wilson’s War are absent. Just click on the 80th Oscars link above to find the full list.

-Wesley Lovell (November 30, 2007)

Precursor: Annie Awards

The Annie Award nominations have been released and the top contenders for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars, Persepolis, Ratatouille and The Simpsons Movie. The big surprise was that Surf’s Up earned quite a few more nominations than expected. Beowulf, once thought to be a potential contender has stumbled with only one nomination and only in the Production Design category. Bee Movie did somewhat well picking up a nod for Best Animated Feature alongside Simpsons, Persepolis, Ratatouille and Surf’s Up.

-Wesley Lovell (December 3, 2007)

Precursor: National Board of Review

The National Board of Review has announced. Click on the 80th link and take a look at the Precursors page and the Tallies page where the first winners are now taking shape. I will have an analysis in the morning after I finish putting together the NBR Precursors and Stats pages.

-Wesley Lovell (December 5, 2007)

Precursor: National Board of Review Analysis

Sadly, the NBR Precursor and Stat pages aren’t going to be updated this morning. They are up, but they are not formatted correctly and the 2006 awards are missing. However, I will give you my analysis. No Country for Old Men has cemented itself as a Best Picture nominee. The Coens can’t do wrong according to most critics and I think this is just another example of forced recognition. By default proclamation it’s a winner, thus why it has been elevated. I don’t know if anyone else saw the same preview I did, but the entire thing looked atrocious when I first saw the trailer early this year. I think most of the buzz has been manufactured and, like with all things, people may have liked it in spite of its flaws for a desire not to be wrong.

In the last five years, the NBR has chosen 4 to 5 out of the final Best Picture Oscar nominees. Last year they were down to four after two years at five. Before that, they had three years running where they only picked two of the five…and that’s out of ten slots they can fill. This year, they have 11 spaces for chances. I still think it will be only 4 of 5, but we could be surprised. Their winner has received an Oscar nomination eight out of the last 10 contests. I don’t see any reason for that to change this year. However, the winner eight times has failed to win Best Picture, so I’m pretty sure No Country‘s not THE contender for Best Picture, though it could still win.

In the acting categories, they have a spotty record. For Winner-to-Oscar nominees 8 of 10 Actors, 10 of 10 Actress (with the distinction of only 1990 and 1981 being miss years in the last 25), Supporting Actor is 9 for 10 (with nearly the same kind of track record of Actress, with three in the last 20 failing to carry over), and 2 of the last five for Supporting Actress and four of the last 10 with 11 of the last 20 carrying over (it’s a 50-50 shot). So, from these statistics, Casey Affleck and Julie Christie are nearly guaranteed a nomination with George Clooney being quite likely and Amy Ryan the only one with any potential pitfalls.

As for the winner-to-winner ratio, it’s a 50% split in 10 years for Actors, 3 of 10 for Actresses, 1 in 10 for Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress is at 0 in 10 with only 3 of the last 20 years. So, if all four of these winners get an Oscar nomination, Clooney’s the only one with a real shot based on these numbers with Amy Ryan so unlikely to win it’s scary.

In the director field, the NBR is hit-or-miss. In 5 years, the winner here received an Oscar nomination twice. That ratio decreases to 3 in 10 but increases again to 11 in 20 years. They aren’t good at picking this category in any sense of the word. 0 in the last 10 years have won Oscars and only 4 in the last 20 hvae matched.

The screenplays are generally hard to go but it seems Juno may be a lock (though Lars and the Real Girl is highly unlikely in the case of this tie), while their history (of only three years, mind you) would suggest No Country might not get nominated. That’s doubtful, so it’s likely the NBR’s records will be increasing this year.

The other categories are difficult to pin down since the NBR doesn’t have the same selection criteria as the Academy and thus creating a true comparison is nigh impossible. As for Animated Feature, this is their first year, but I can see their choice of Ratatouille being another winner for Pixar.

-Wesley Lovell (December 6, 2007)

First December Predictions

The National Board of Review forced me to take a new outlook on the Oscar race. Although I’m still trying to catch up on the late 2007 films, it’s become quite obvious what films are locks for nominations and which ones have fallen by the wayside. Click the above Hopefuls link to find my latest predictions…guaranteed to make someone upset. Keep in mind, I picked a few “surprise” nominees that most people aren’t choosing just to be different and to voice my concern over the chances of some other films, but I’ll let you be the judge for one man’s Dreamgirls is another man’s Schindler’s List.

-Wesley Lovell (December 9, 2007)

Precursor: Los Angeles, Boston, Washington D.C. and New York Online

What a busy day. Critics in four areas announced their winners. There are too many to really go over in detail, but suffice it to say that There Will Be Blood is back in the hunt and Julie Christie’s lead is no longer solid.

-Wesley Lovell (December 10, 2007)

Precursor: New York and Chicago

The week continues to be busy with the New York Film Critics Circle announcing their winners and the Chicago Film Critics announcing their nominees. Tomorrow, we know for sure that the Broadcast Critics will announce their nominations. Chicago will announce its winners on Friday while the Golden Globes weigh in with Nominations Thursday morning. It’s a busy week and I’m going to hold off on commentary until after it’s over.

-Wesley Lovell (December 10, 2007)

Precursor: San Francisco

The always-stealthy San Francisco Critics data only appeared late last night, so it has been updated. Today’s the Broadcast Critics nomiantions. To get the latest posting on this data, check out the forums.

-Wesley Lovell (December 11, 2007)

Precursor: Broadcast Critics

For those wondering where the nominations disappeared to, they have been put in their proper place under the 80th Oscars section above. Feel free to navigate there to check them out. Please note some corrections have been made since the posting this morning, so there are some changes.

Hopefully this will mean a respite until Thursday. Since they announce live, tune in around 8a eastern, 5p pacific to see what the Hollywood Foreign Press Association believes is deserving of its Golden Globe Awards nomiantions.

-Wesley Lovell (December 11, 2007)

Original Song Contenders

The official list of eligible songs for the 80th Oscars is fifty-nine entries long. All of them have been added to my Hopefuls section along with my first predictions in the category.

-Wesley Lovell (December 12, 2007)

Golden Globe Nominations

The Golden Globe Award nominations have been announced and they are now posted in full at the 80th Oscars link above. Also announced today were the nominees for the London Film Critics awards.

The Chicago Critics also jumped their own gun, announcing their winners a day before they were originally scheduled to do so.

-Wesley Lovell (December 13, 2007)

Post-Golden Globe Nominations Hopefuls

Now that the Golden Globe Nods have been announced, it’s time for another update to my predictions, which won’t get another revamp until after the SAG nominations. Check them out at the Hopefuls link above.

-Wesley Lovell (December 16, 2007)

Satellite Awards, American Film Institute

Last night, the Satellite Awards (created by the International Press Academy) were announced. The winners have been added to the Precursors page in the 80th Oscars section above. The Tallies page has also been updated. Also announced yesterday were the ten best American-financed films of 2007 produced by the American Film Institute. While Atonement did not qualify, Sweeney Todd did, but unlike last year’s musical Oscar failure Dreamgirls, Tim Burton’s film didn’t make the list, which puts into serious doubt its potential wide appeal to the Academy.

Thursday’s announcement of the Screen Actors Guild nominations will be the last such scheduled prize until the beginning of the year when the Online Film Critics Society weighs in. So, you’ll have a break (as will I).

-Wesley Lovell (December 17, 2007)

Southeastern and Dallas-Ft. Worth Film Critics

As I expected when I wrote those ill-fated words this morning, my respite is not to be. Two more critics groups announced their winners. Check out the 80th Oscars section above for the latest update.

-Wesley Lovell (December 17, 2007)

San Diego and Detroit Film Critics

More Critics groups announce their winners in stealth. This time, we have the Detroit Film Critics Society, which seems to be a new group this year, and the San Diego Film Critics whose choices are far from the unusual they used to be.

-Wesley Lovell (December 19, 2007)

Screen Actors Guild Info; Phoenix and Toronto Film Critics

Tomorrow morning, the Screen Actors Guild will announce its nominees for this year’s awards. The presentation is supposed to be carried live on TNT around 8:30 Eastern, 5:30 Pacific. That’s according to SAG’s own site, so I’m assuming it’s correct. As usual, I will post the nominees immediately after they are announced. They’ll go up first in the forums, but I’ll update the Precursors section of the 80th Oscars page linked immediately above with the data.

More critics awards arrive with more love for No Country for Old Men, which picked up prizes from both Phoenix and Toronto Film Critics. Those prizes have already been updated at the previously-mentioned link.

-Wesley Lovell (December 19, 2007)

Screen Actors Guild Nominations

The nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards have been announced. Click on the 80th Oscars page above to get the full data.

-Wesley Lovell (December 20, 2007)

Utah Critics and Regular Update

I have posted the winners of the Utah Critics in the 80th Oscars section above. I’ve also updated the latest trailers and posters in the Previews section, also listed above. A new set of Oscar Hopefuls should emerge before the end of the year, so keep an eye out for that.

-Wesley Lovell (December 22, 2007)

Oscar Hopefuls Update

Now that I’ve had time to ruminate on the Screen Actors Guild nominations, it’s time for an updated set of predictions. The Hopefuls page has been updated to reflect this. I have also put the first winner on the Nominations and Winners page with information I already possess.

-Wesley Lovell (December 24, 2007)

New Updates

Along with today’s Previews update, the St. Louis Film Critics Nomations and Awards have been posted in the 80th Oscars section above.

-Wesley Lovell (December 29, 2007)

2008

Online Film Critics Society

The OFCS has selected its nominees for 2007. The broad-spectrum list includes Oscar contenders in many categories and a first-time six-nominee Best Supporting Actress field. Not the best predictors, but it’s always interesting to see the dichotemy between print and online journalists as well as how the American vs. International divide will play out (the OFCS features a large number of non-North American critics, who don’t always get to see the films American critics do.

-Wesley Lovell (January 2, 2008)

USC Scripter

The USC Scripter award nomiantions have been announced. Their Best Adapted Screenplay selections aren’t always the best precursors, but it’s interesting to see what’s popular. Check out those nominations at the 80th Oscars box above and also the weekend box office results, which have finally been updated.

-Wesley Lovell (January 3, 2008)

Tributes Section Opens, Visual Effects Finalists Announced

With the arrival of 2008, Peter has put together a list of luminaries that have departed this life in 2007. These lead off a new area of my site for tributes to those who pass away.

The Academy has also announced the seven films that will compete for the Best Visual Effects nominations. Three films will be selected (at maximum). The films selected are now included in my Hopefuls page accessible from the 80th Oscars tab above. These are the only updates I will make until the PGA and DGA announce this coming week. There were also several announcements this week of some special awards which have been updated on the Winners and Nominees page.

-Wesley Lovell (January 5, 2008)

Tributes Fix, New Previews and the National Society of Film Critics Announces

Several announcements today. The Tributes section links have been fixed, so you should be able to access it normally. We have new previews up in the Previews section and the National Society of Film Critics, the last of the old guard, make their picks for the best of 2007.

-Wesley Lovell (January 6, 2008)

Makeup Finalists, ASC Nominees and Broadcast Critics Awards

Today’s a busy day and I still haven’t even seen the Visual Effects Society nominations. The Broadcast Critics have not yet announced, but they will be presented live on VH-1, so as soon as I know the winners, I’ll post them to the Discussion Board. Then, I’ll update them here as soon as I can.

The Academy has announced the last of its Finalists prior to the nominations announcements. The Makeup Branch has announced the 7 films from which the final selections will be for the Makeup nominations.

The American Society of Cinematographers has also announced its nominations for 2007. Check the 80th Oscars page for all the updates.

-Wesley Lovell (January 7, 2008)

Visual Effects Society Nominees & Broadcast Critics Winners

Each have been updated in the 80th Oscars section. Stay tuned tomorrow for the Directors Guild of America’s nominations and the announcement of the Online Film Critics Society Award winners.

-Wesley Lovell (January 7, 2008)

Directors Guild of America Nominees & Online Film Critics Society Winners News

The Directors Guild of America announced their nominees today amid news that the Golden Globe ceremony scheduled for Sunday was going to be reduced to a winners-announcement press conference. The Online Film Critics Society will announce their winners tomorrow, Wednesday. The close of the nominations balloting process is coming up this Saturday the 12th. Groups announcing in the next three or four days may not have an impact on the nominations, but may give signs as to what to expect.

Also, note that the countdown clock at the top shows us that less than two weeks remains until Oscar nominations are announced. When that occurs, the clock will reset to Oscar Night and we’ll then be in the final stretch to the 80th Academy Awards.

-Wesley Lovell (January 8, 2008)

USC Scripter & Online Film Critics Society

The Online Film Critics Society has seemed to have tried to avoid standing out from the pack, choosing the Precursor Tally leaders in every category but Cinematography and Documentary. The USC Scripter winners will be announced today as well and we’ll hopefully see a shake-up because it’s rather boring to see the same winners turned out with every new precursor award.

Cormac McCarthy and the Coen Brothers triumphed over two dead competitors and several others to win the USC Scripter prize for Best Adapted Screenplay.

-Wesley Lovell (January 9, 2008)

Writers Guild and Cinema Audio Society

Two more of the Biggies posted today. The Writers Guild of America and the Cinema Audio Society (Sound Mixing) announced their nominations. Both are decent predictors with the Audio Society edging out the WGA for the title of More Accurate. Tomorrow, we finish off the week with nomination announcements from the American Cinema Editors and the Art Directors guild. Also be on the look out for my latest predictions…while I’m still waiting on the PGA to announce Monday to put a more cemented list together, this will be nearly the final one I do before Oscar Nominations morning January 22.

I’ll also be putting together my Oscar Morning primer that will help you follow the nominations announcement and guess what’s big, what’s not big and what’s going to surprise. It shou.d be out some time next week.

-Wesley Lovell (January 10, 2008)

American Cinema Editors…for now

As I expect the Art Directors will announce later when I’m not available to update the site, I’m going to go ahead and post the American Cinema Editors nominations. The usual suspects show up here, but the lack of love for former frontrunner Atonement is clear.

-Wesley Lovell (January 11, 2008)

Art Directors Guild, American Cinema Editors & Oscar Hopefuls Update

The Art Directors Guild followed the announcement of the American Cinema Editors Eddie award nominatoins with nominations of their own in Period, Fantasy and Contemporary Art Direction.

I’ve also posted my latest Oscar nominations predictions. The Hopefuls link above will take you there. I only expect one or two more updates before the nominations are announced.

-Wesley Lovell (January 11, 2008)

Nominations Poll Closure and 2007 Year in Preview

The Oscar ballots will be due by 5:00 pm today, so any influence other group votes will have is neglible (even those for the guild nominations announced in the past couple of days could be ill-influential. What we’re really looking at in the guilds is trends that may have been present in the voting community for the Academy and we’ve seen a few.

However, today’s big news is that my first ever Year in Preview, detailing the Ten Best and Worst Trailers and Posters of 2007 has been posted. You can find it in the Previews section.

-Wesley Lovell (January 12, 2008)

Golden Globe Winners

The Golden Globe Winners have been announced and thanks to NBC for dragging it out, I found out too late that CNN gave all the winners and announced them faster. The Precursors page under the 80th Oscars link above is updated as is the Tallies page. All winners are there.

Atonement pulled out a squeaker of a win having picked up only one other award: Original Score. Julian Schnabel picked up a somewhat surprising win for Best Director and Amy Ryan, the Supporting Actress with the most precursors, went down to the ever-present Cate Blanchett who may have benefited from two nominations this year.

-Wesley Lovell (January 13, 2008)

Producers Guild of American Nominations

The PGA announced its selections for the best produced films of the year. Atonement, an early favorite, has fallen farther and farther behind in terms of Oscar consideration. If it picks up a nod next Tuesday, it will indeed be a surprise. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is quietly emerging as a strong contender while There Will Be Blood continues its late-release dominance of consideration, having now picked up several major guild nominations.

-Wesley Lovell (January 14, 2008)

Foreign Film Finalists

Today, the Academy has provided us with a look at the nine semi-finalists for the Academy Award nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. Absent are three critically acclaimed films: 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, The Orphanage and Persepolis. Their absence calls into question the Academy’s selection process as the tendency of the category is towards more vanilla fare and away from controversial subjects. A revamp may never occur, but at least we know the nine films from which we can choose. I’ve updated my predictions in the Foreign Film category at the Oscar Hopefuls link above to include only the nine films and my predictions from those nine.

-Wesley Lovell (January 15, 2008)

British Academy Awards Nominations

The British Academy of Film & Television Arts (the British Academy Awards), have announced their nominees for films released in 2007. Their list is quite interesting featuring films that some are considering dead for Oscar consideration. This might be proof that support is wider than expected, but it’s hard to know without seeing the Oscar nods in comparison.

-Wesley Lovell (January 16, 2008)

Costume Designers Guild and Pre-Nomination Information

Sometime between when I last checked their website and now, the Costume Designers Guild have changed their nominations announcement date. However, the nominations are now posted at the 80th Oscars section above. Check out the nominees and note the exclusion of Best Picture contenders No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood and more conspicuously American Gangster.

With the nominations in less than 5 days now, I want to let you know what updates you can expect in the coming days. I will be returning to my Oscar Morning article that will prep you for the announcements, which will include a section you can highlight and print out to follow along yourself. And I’ll be posting my final predictions. I’ve been working on them off and on since the PGA announced, but I’ll be posting a finalized version sometime soon highlighting my predictions for the films the Academy will nominate. There’s also the standard Previews update to look forward to, but youw would have gotten that anyway.

-Wesley Lovell (January 17, 2008)

Oscar Morning Primer

There’s something profound about waking up early and sitting down to watch the live announcement of the Academy Awards nominations. I’ve been doing it for several years. Let me help you. In the 80th Oscars section above, you’ll see a new link called Oscar Morning. There, you will find a primer for following the early-morning announcements. It features a section you can print out and follow along. While I have some personal comments and my current predictions are highlighted, the article is mostly unbiased examinations of the races that will be announced.

For my actual personal take, I have an update to my Nominations Predictions (also called Oscar Hopefuls) in the works and it should be ready by Monday. There, I will try to dissect each race and boil it down to the contenders I think will be nominated plus a few potential shocks we might hear read out on Oscar Morning. Until then, enjoy the primer and start working on your own predictions.

-Wesley Lovell (January 18, 2008)

The 24-Hour Rush

The sense of excitement is in the air. The most unpredictable Nominations period in years culminates in less than 24 hours. At 5:30pm Pacific, we will learn who the nominees for the 80th Annual Academy Awards will be. To give myself a few hours to breathe before, I have finalized my nominations predictions for this year. They are up at the Hopefuls Quick Link above. I also updated the Oscar Morning Primer based on those predictions. You can find that on the 80th Oscars page.

I know I’m excited and I hope you are too. Tomorrow morning, I will be posting the nominations immediately following the announcement. They will go up first in the Discussion Board, then be finally updated here. So, tune in tomorrow morning and find out who the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences thinks are the best of 2007.

-Wesley Lovell (January 21, 2008)

Ineligibility and the Academy Awards

For reasons that make sense to virtually no one, the Academy’s music branch has ruled There Will Be Blood, Into the Wild and Enchanted ineligible for Best Original Score. Variety has the full story and explanation. My predictions have now been updated to reflect this change.

-Wesley Lovell (January 21, 2008)

The Academy Award Nominations

After a long season, the Academy Awards Nominations were announced and as always, there were a few surprises. Check out the full list at the 80th Oscars link above.

I’ve posted commentary on the 80th Oscars page under Nominations Commentary. Just click the 80th Oscars link above.

-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2008)

Prediction Averages and Box Office Results

We have a small update today. I’ve posted my averages for my predictions, which you can find on the Oscars page as a link to Predictions Success Rate. I’ve also updated the box office results from over the weekend. If you haven’t already found my first set of predictions, visit the 80th Oscars Page and take a look at the Winner Predictions page.

-Wesley Lovell (January 23, 2008)

Motion Picture Sound Editors and Other Updates

The Motion Picture Sound Editors have announced their 2007 nominations in six categories. You can find those listed in the 80th Oscars section under Precursors. Additionally, I’ve updated this week’s previews, posted some new posters you can buy and even put up three brand new reviews.

Stay tuned later this evening to find out who wins the American Society of Cinematographers and Directors Guild of America awards.

-Wesley Lovell (January 26, 2008)

Directors Guild of America Award

They’ve started giving out prizes and so far, the only plaque for feature films I’ve seen is to Paul Thomas Anderson and from the looks of it, it’s the silver nominee’s plaque. So, we’ve got three more to eliminate now before we know who wins. Of course, that is if they don’t give out silvers to everyone and then announce a gold one at the end. We’ll have to wait (and wait and wait and wait) and see.

I’ve just confirmed (found photos of two pictures of Martin Scorsese with two different types of plaquest last year) that all nominees are presented nominations plaques first, then after all five (or in this case, six) have silver ones, they give out the big gold one.

-Wesley Lovell (January 26, 2008)

Directors Guild of America & American Society of Cinematographers Awards

Joel & Ethan Coen win the Directors Guild of America.

This just in: Robert Elswit is the winner for There Will Be Blood.

-Wesley Lovell (January 26, 2008)

Online Film & Television Association Film Nominations

The 12th Annual Online Film & Television Association Film Awards nominations have been announced. Their selections for best of the year diverge from the Academy’s on a number of fronts. After beginning its career as a sort of Oscar precursor, the OFTA has consistently selected high calibre winners and nominees the likes of which the Academy has sometimes been afraid to nominate. As is consistent with their choice of Children of Men as Best Picture of 2006, this year’s list offers up an eclectic list of films and performances that will compete to win the OFTA’s 12th annual prize. The organization may be small, but it is composed of film and awards enthusiasts from around the world. Find out the winners on February 10. Find out the nominees by checking out the link to the OFTA website in the Resources/Other Sites section or by going to the 80th Oscars page and selecting Precursors.

Tonight, the first kudos cast of the year presented by members of the industry. The Screen Actors Guild award winners will be posted here and in the forums live.

-Wesley Lovell (January 27, 2008)

Screen Actors Guild Awards

The SAG Awards were presented tonight and most of the critics’ faves picked up trophies with the exception of Supporting Actress where sentimental favorite Ruby Dee walked off with the big prize. I’ll be updating my predictions based on these wins some time Monday or Tuesday at the latest. Then, we’ll have to wait for the PGA awards on Saturday to firm up a number of other predictions. For a full list of winners, check out the 80th Oscars page above.

-Wesley Lovell (January 27, 2008)

Top Ten of 2007, Producers Guild of America and Re-Organization

In addition to today’s typical Previews update, I’ve finally finished work on my Top Ten of 2007. There are still films I haven’t seen, so the full list for 2007 could change, but as the year’s second month has already begun, it’s important for me to get my thoughts on paper. You can find my article on the 2007 Reviews page just under the picture on the right.

The Producers Guild of America will announce its Best Picture, Best Animated Feature and Best Documentary awards tonight. I will try to update this page as soon as they are announced, but you can always find the data quickly by logging into the Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board (UAADB) to find out. Just click on Discussion above to start working your way there.

As you can see, there’s a bit of an alteration today with our site. The Quick Glance Updates have been shifted so they don’t obstruct all of the newest posts. Feel free to use the contact page to send me your thoughts. This isn’t necessarily the final configuration or even the final graphics, so expect more changes in the next few weeks as I put the finishing touches on them.

-Wesley Lovell (February 2, 2008)

Producers Guild Winners, Vancouver Critics Nominations

The Producers Guild of America decided they wouldn’t throw a wrench into this year’s festivities and crowned No Country for Old Men Best Picture. The group that has a tendency to surprise everyone went with the long-time critical fave, pushing it into a locked position for the Best Picture award. We can hope for a shock on Oscar Night, but don’t expect one.

The Vancouver Film Critics Circle also announced nominations. They have international awards that closely resemble most of the American critics plus separate categories for Canadian films. The only quesiton is where is Away from Her in their list?

-Wesley Lovell (February 2, 2008)

Writers Guild of America, Online Film & Television Association and the Annie Awards

The Writers Guild of America confirmed what we already knew last night: Juno as the frontrunner for Original Screenplay and No Country for Old Men as the frontrunner for virtually everything else. The only semi-surprise was the award for Documentary writing that went to Taxi to the Dark Side.

The 12th Annual Online Film & Television Association winners were revealed just this morning. There Will Be Blood topped the list, one of the few it has managed to win since the season began. The org hasn’t been much of a Best Picture forecaster in the last few years (picking films like Children of Men and Brokeback Mountain, but several other categories look like solid predictions.

The Annie Awards went for a near clean-sweep by Oscar frontrunner Ratatouille, taking home 9 prizes, missing only one category in which it was nominated, which it lost to Surf’s Up. The film also managed to capture wins for Short Subject and Video Games.

The winners can be found on the Precursors Page and to see where the new tallies for all films stand, check out the 80th Oscars Page.

-Wesley Lovell (February 10, 2008)

The British Academy Awards Announced

Yesterday, the British Academy of Film & Television Arts announced its awards for 2007. At the top of the list was Atonement which topped their nomination list, but came away with only two trophies. For a full list of winners and the addition to the tallies section, visit the Precursors and 80th Oscars page respectively.

-Wesley Lovell (February 11, 2008)

Upcoming Updates, Art Directors and Cinema Audio Society Announce Winners

The Art Directors Guild and the Cinema Audio Society have cemented the love for No Country for Old Men with awards from both groups. The ADG picked it for Contemporary Art Direction giving its Period award to There Will Be Blood and its Fantasy honor to The Golden Compass. This evening we should also have the results of the American Cinema Editors Awards.

With the sudden announcement of all presenters and performers last Thursday, I have not had a chance to update that page. I will get to it this week, but the more important update will be my traditional pre-Oscar article series covering an examination of each category and the possibilities for each. These will be posted Monday, Wednesday and Friday (should I get the Monday one done in time). Also, my final predictions will go up with the release of the final article in the series and will include my predictions for the odds of each film winning the award. We can all hope for a surprise, but I don’t think we’re going to get much of that this year.

-Wesley Lovell (February 17, 2008)

American Cinema Editors and Poll Closure

The American Cinema Editors weighs in on the Oscar race and says that The Bourne Ultimatum is the best edited drama of the year. The bestowed their Comedy/Musical prize on Sweeney Todd and their documentary trophy went to Sicko.

It’s finally coming to a close. This Tuesday, the Costume Designers announce their winners, but it will be too late to influence the Academy’s decision. Those decisions must be handed in on Tuesday as the Academy Awards Polls close for the 80th Awards.

-Wesley Lovell (February 18, 2008)

The 80th Academy Awards: The Technical Categories

The first in my three-article series looking at the year’s Academy Awards is now up in the 80th Oscars section. I take a look at the eight tech categories that make up the backbone of any Oscar sweep. They are a lonesome bunch this year, like in recent years, with no juggernaut to attach themselves to. The article looks at each nominee in varying amounts of detail and covers my personal thoughts on how the year’s closets contenders may fair on Oscar night.

The second article should be up tomorrow and, with luck, I’ll have the final one posted Thursday, giving you a full weekday to digest my picks before placing your money down on most prediction pools.

-Wesley Lovell (February 19, 2008)

Ceremony Information and The 80th Academy Awards: The Second-Tier Categories

Today, my second article arrives on the internet focusing on the non-Best Picture Best Film categories (Foreign Language Film, Animated Film and Documentary Feature) as well as the two music categories and the two writing categories. It continues my look into the race and what the most likely outcomes are and a bit of what it means.

I’ll have the final article up tomorrow, so stay tuned. But if you’re looking for a distraction in the meantime, you can check out the Ceremony page on the 80th Oscars page (which is, coincidentally, where the article above appears). It has all the scheduled presenters, details about the ceremony itself, the song performances and the nominations presentation. Good luck and keep those predictions going. We’re not out of the woods yet.

-Wesley Lovell (February 20, 2008)

The Final Article, Costume Designers Guild and Final Predictions

It’s been a long season. It’s also been a short one. The truncated awards year has made things sweep by quickly, but when I look at all the frustration and irritation some of the results have generated, it seems like a much longer time. However, in just 4 short days, everything will be over.

Today, I bring to a close my annual predictions article. Looking at the top six categories, you’ll find several locks, a few potential surprises and a lot of hope for a shocking outcome. But, in the interest of being fair, my final article, found in the 80th Oscars section, goes into detail on each film and performance and the chances they have of triumphing on Oscar night.

I have also posted my final predictions (well, as final as they can be. I can’t imagine making a change this late in the game). I’m not 100% confident on everything, but I’m 95% sure I have good, solid choices. The Costume Designers Guild has also announced its winners and those have been posted in the Precursors section and the Tallies in the 80th Oscars area have also been updated.

-Wesley Lovell (February 21, 2008)

Independent Spirit Awards, Sound Editors Guild and the 80th Annual Academy Awards

This is the magic day that everyone has been waiting breathlessly for. Ok, maybe not breathlessly since most of the races seem hopelessly locked, but we get excited simply because it is the one day of the year where the best in film (always debatable) is recognized. It’s a medium all Oscar enthusiasts love. And our love gives us the unique opportunity once a year to complain and bicker over what the Academy did and did not do right.

Tonight, I will be updating the winners LIVE. Every time one is announced, the following link will be updated. You can just sit on the page if you like or you can join us in the Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board and chat about the winners as they are announced. It’s always a fun thing to watch people complain or rejoice about the choices being made.

To help prime you a touch for tonight’s ceremonies, the Independent Spirit Awards and Sound Editors Guild each announced winners yesterday. Those winners have been posted in the Precursors section to the right. In addition, the latest tributes are up in the Tributes section, our first update since the page went live at the beginning of the month.

So, stick around for the festivities of the 80th Annual Academy Awards tonight on ABC.

-Wesley Lovell (February 24, 2008)

The 80th Annual Academy Awards

The Awards have all been handed out and the 80th Ceremony is finished. There were very few surprises, a few nice moments and some poor choices, but all in all, everything went better than could be expected on a two week notice (with the Writers strike just ending about that long ago). For a full list of the winners, click the 80th Oscars link to the right. I will be working on my impressions of the ceremony and the awards this week and as soon as it’s ready, I will be posting it here.

-Wesley Lovell (February 24, 2008)

Post-Oscar Wrap Up

It’s been three days since the 80th Academy Awards were presented at the Kodak Theater at Hollywood and Highland. My post-Oscar analysis is now posted under the 80th Oscars link to the right. The article goes over the best and worst of the ceremony and the winners.

You may also notice that the links to the right have decreased in number. With most information about the 80th Oscars already posted, I thought it necessary to reduce the congestion of links and have only one for the 80th Oscars. Nothing but the 80th Oscar links were removed, so you’ll still have the same access you always have.

I’m still working through ideas of how to keep the site fresh other than our traditional weekly updates and may be starting a weekly 81st Oscars forecast post looking at the latest releases, what their Oscar chances are and glimpsing ahed into Oscar’s future. There are other ideas rolling around in my head, so I’ll let you know as soon as I know something more. Until then, just enjoy the results of a long, yet short Oscar season and get caught up on all the 2007 films you haven’t had a chance yet to see.

-Wesley Lovell (February 27, 2008)

Acceptance Speeches

Thanks to the Academy providing transcripts of all on-stage and backstage acceptance speeches, I have compiled all of these and placed them in a new section on the 80th Oscars page. If they continue doing this, you will now have a brand new feature of this site to look forward to every year.

And here’s what I’m currently working on. Besides trying to get a handle on this year’s new films and what could be hot, I’m also working on a system to rank Oscar winners according to the various factors we often attribute to potential Oscar nominees and winners. This will take some time as I have to compare past years’ performance and so forth, but when it’s done, it may shine a light on the more statistical aspects of the Oscars. In addition, I’m also trying to finalize my section on Oscar nominees individually so that we can have a new set of statistics (this will also allow me to fill those statistics sections I’ve had up for some time).

-Wesley Lovell (February 29, 2008)

Key Dates Announced for 81st Academy Awards

I know I’ve been a long time in updating, but there hasn’t been a lot going on. When I get some other things in order, I will try to make an effort to post like a blog, but time is a bit confined presently. Today’s announcement comes directly from the Academy. They have announced the dates for this year’s Academy Awards.

  • Mon. Dec. 1, 2008: Official Screen Credits
  • Fri. Dec. 26, 2008: Nominations ballots mailed
  • Mon. Jan. 12, 2009: Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PST
  • Thu. Jan. 22, 2009: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PST, Samuel Goldwyn Theater
  • Wed. Jan. 28, 2009: Final ballots mailed
  • Mon. Feb. 2, 2009: Nominees Luncheon
  • Sat. Feb. 7, 2009: Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards presentation
  • Tue. Feb. 17, 2009: Final polls close 5 p.m. PST
  • Sun. Feb. 22, 2009: 81st Annual Academy Awards presentation

-Wesley Lovell (April 15, 2008)

Happy Anniversary

One year ago this week, our very own Peter Patrick began writing a column on new DVD releases. Largely based in and around Oscar winners, the column has slowly evolved to what you read today. My special thanks go to Peter for all his hard work and consistent dedication to helping me improve this site for readers. Feel free to visit the DVD page and go back and take a look at all Peter has written for us.

Congratulations on One Year at cinemasight.com!

-Wesley Lovell (May 6, 2008)

The 81st Oscars Section Is Up

Normally, my first predictions list goes up in May. This has been a crazy year and I am running two months behind. However, I am proud to announce my first Hopefuls predictions for 2008 are now up. You can click on the 81st Oscars tab at the right to get there.

Now, let me qualify that these are very early predictions, which means about 80-90% of the will change before January…probably around early December there will be a completely different list. This is based on previews I’ve seen and information I’ve read. These are in no way meant to be my final predictions.

Having said that, there are a number of bold predictions that sometimes rely on the Academy not mucking about with rules or just ruling films ineligible. The most glaring of these is my prediction of a nomination and win by the Australian film Australia in Foreign Language Film. Since the official language of Australia is English, it’s very unlikely this film will make the final list, but after relaxed rules regarding submissions and eligibility, just give it to the Academy to make such a weird choice. However, Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature categories are always hard to predict so early as most countries haven’t even begun selecting their submissions so far. So, those two categories are purely suppositional based on available information and feelings about those films about which I have information.

The one pretty solid prediction I have in this race is John Malkovich for Supporting Actor. Clint Eastwood’s three English-language Best Picture-nomianted films (Unforgiven, Mystic River and Million Dollar Baby) have resulted in Hollywood veterans earning Oscars for their supporting work: Gene Hackman, Tim Robbins and Morgan Freeman respectively. Malkovich has been floating around nomination and award rumors for years, but this could finally be his shot at winning that much-believed long-deserved Oscar.

I have a lot more to say, but not enough time to say it. For now, enjoy the meager offerings I make.

-Wesley Lovell (July 18, 2008)

My Latest Hopefuls and an Announcement About This Weekend’s Updates

First, let me get the bad news out of the way: I will be out of town this weekend, so the update I would normally run on Sunday will be postponed for one week. Tuesday’s update should be done in time.

As for the other big announcement, I have compiled a new list of Hopefuls for this year’s Academy Awards. Surprisingly, there are a number of changes to go around this time, so enjoy taking a look at them. You can use the list of links at the right to navigate to the 81st Oscars page and the only link presently available is to my hopefuls list.

Enjoy.

-Wesley Lovell (September 12, 2008)

R.I.P. Paul Newman (1925-2008)

Seldom do I post an update on the death of any known entity. However, this weekend, we lost one of the last true Hollywood Legends alive today. Paul Newman was one of those actors whose personality far outshined his movies. He was a name that millions of people around the world recognized and not just because of his movies, but as a successful entrepreneur, racecar fan and philanthropist.

In honor of his passing, I have posted a new update to my hopefuls page. While the connection between a new hopefuls list and Paul Newman is admittedly tenuous, Newman’s legacy includes ten Oscar nominations, an Oscar for Best Actor in The Color of Money, an Honorary Oscar and a Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award, making him one of the most recognized actors in Academy history. So, to honor his passing, I give you an update to this year’s Oscar race.

-Wesley Lovell (September 28, 2008)

Documentary Short Subject Finalists

Pushing their first release date of the finalists for the Documentary Short Subject ever earlier, the Academy preceeds its release by three days announcing the eight finalists for the Academy Award nominations.

There are some far more intriguing subjects this go around, so should make for some interesting choices, but the civil rights drama Witness from the Balcony of Room 306 seems like a strong contender, but it needs to look out for past Oscar winners Ruby Yang and Steven Okazaki who’ve both won this very category in the past. Also not to be discounted is the Tom Hanks/Gary Goetzman-produced documentary about famed historical novelist David McCollough. There are plenty of other potential nominees, making this a very intriguing and competitive cateogry.

All 8 finalists are now listed on my Hopefuls page. Check them out as well as my predictions.

The next announcement from the Academy should come around the 15th of this month revealing the films submitted for the Foreign Language film award. It won’t be a final list, but at least it will give us enough to fill in the blanks for this year’s race. After that, it will be early-to-mid November before we hear more from the Academy…at least based on last year’s release schedule.

-Wesley Lovell (October 8, 2008)

Foreign Language Film Finalists

We have a whole slew of updates this week, largely based around the Friday-released finalist list from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences for the Foreign Language Film cateogyr.

With the list, comes an update to my Hopefuls page. I had already begun working on several updates Friday before the Academy’s list came out, so I’ve incorporated it all into my update.

And I’m going to keep it brief, but also check into the new Previews for this week.

-Wesley Lovell (October 19, 2008)

It’s Election Day

It’s been four years since our last presidential election and this promises to be a historic one.

If you are an American citizen and are registered to vote, then it is your right to vote in elections. If you don’t vote, then those who did won’t care to listen to you complain about the results. This is your chance to give the country the direction you want to see, so get out and vote.

I will not be actively posting results as this is a film website, not a political one. However, I and our very politically savvy message board posters will be at it all night in the UAADB discussion board, so feel free to join us in the festivities.

Happy Election!

-Wesley Lovell (November 4, 2008)

Animated Film Finalists Announced

Today is a big update date. The only sections not getting some fresh material are the Reviews and Previews pages.

The biggest news is the Academy’s announcement of the thirteen finalists for the Animated Feature Film award. There are several that are easy to knock out, but some that fall into the Jimmy Neutron/Shark Tale surprise area. We’ll see how things go, but my Hopefuls page has been updated with all the finalists and my predictions.

-Wesley Lovell (November 11, 2008)

Documentary Feature Finalists Announced

The Academy announced today the 15 finalists for the Documentary Feature award at this year’s Oscars. Several of the titles are unfamiliar to me, so I’m not able to offer up immediate insight. So, I’ll list them here for now and then once I’ve had a chance to research each title, I will add them into my Hopefuls page updating my predictions accordingly. As I am also working on a new update for my Hopefuls in general, these changes will likely go live at the same time.

  • At the Death House Door
  • The Betrayal
  • Blessed Is the Match
  • Encounters at the End of the World
  • Fuel
  • The Garden
  • Glass: A Portrait of Phillip in Twelve Parts
  • I.O.U.S.A.
  • In a Dream
  • Made in America
  • Man on Wire
  • Pray the Devil Back to Hell
  • Standard Operating Procedure
  • They Killed Sister Dorothy
  • Trouble the Water

-Wesley Lovell (November 17, 2008)

And Oscar Season Begins…

It’s hard to believe another year has come and gone. And it’s even more difficult to fathom how the first precursor comes out this Sunday. At least, the first to present nominations. The Satellite Award nominations will be announced on Sunday, November 30, kicking off the official Oscar season. And after that, the dominoes start tumbling quickly as three groups should be announcing after the Satellites and another 11 are expected to be announced by the end of the next week. That’s 15 groups to potentially reveal their nominations and/or winners by Saturday, December 13.

Then, before the Oscar ballots are mailed for the 81st Oscar nominations on December 26, a total of 26 different organizations kick off Oscar season as few others can. While the Satellites, this year, have gotten the drop on the Independent Spirit Awards (as may the Annie Awards), the National Board of Review is still the official first critics organization to reveal its winners. It will handle that task on December 4.

I will work hard to post the results as I hear them, but sometimes I don’t always get them up on this page fast enough. So, always keep a look out on the UAADB for the first announcements and then check back here for further revelations and announcements, plus updates on the 81st Oscars page with the precursors as they come in.

Also, if you’d like to see what the calendar for the 81st Oscar precursor season should look like, check out the 81st Oscars section or click on the link below for the calendar. The fun is about to begin! Join us here for the latest news and information.

-Wesley Lovell (November 28, 2008)

A Slew of Updates

Because of the massive number of new updates today, I thought I’d give you a brief heads up so you know hat’s going on.

We start with our normal round of updates, including Peter Patrick’s DVD review on the films of 1968. We also add in new box office information and an updated release schedule.

But, there are several other things of note. Now that I’ve had a chance to see a few of the higher profile contenders this year (Australia, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire), I have a better idea of how these films will likely perform with the Academy. I still have several more to see, so we’ll see how it goes as the days go by. For now, check out the updates to the Hopefuls page on the 81st Oscars page to the right.

In addition, to make it easier on you to follow the latest happenings in the precursor derby (the Spirit Awards announce nominations today), above this post is a precis on what’s going on. The “This Jus In” section details the latest precursors that have been updated on my Precursors page, which you can get to, as the note says, through the 81st Oscars link to the right. The “Upcoming Events” section used to list which precursors were upcoming, but with my new Calendar page set up, I’ve just given a link to it instead so you can more easily see what’s going on in the future. I update the calendar daily to highlight the current day so you can always see what’s coming out.

Of course, when I find out the precursors, I will post them on my Forums/Discussion area, the UAADB (Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board). Then, once they are updated here, the forum entry will be updated with the link to the specific part of the page the precursor information is listed on.

This is going to be a busy season, but the Oscars will always come first. So, always keep a look out for new information and I’ll get it posted just as soon as possible. And, as always, the forums are a great place to find out the latest information.

-Wesley Lovell (December 2, 2008)

Several Updates

Along with today’s DVD Report, I’ve updated the front page of the site to make it easier to click directly to the newest Precursors. In addition to being able to click directly to each above, you can get to the full list from the “81st Precursors” tab at the right. Additionally, you can now go directly to my latest predictions by clicking on the “81st Predictions” link at the right.

I updated my latest predictions on Sunday and the precursors seem to be coming in daily. So, check back often and find out what you’ve missed or see a concise rundown of all the precursors in an easy-to-read format. And new to this year, I’m adding a link at the right for the Precursor Tallies which is an even more concise glimpse at all the precursor winners sectioned out by category and organized by the most honored.

Another new feature, at least altered from last year, is the “81st Ceremony” link to the right. I used it last year to update the newest presenters announced for the awards, but I’ll also use it to update any information associated with the ceremony itself that I receive, including the most recent announcement that Hugh Jackman will be posting the event.

If you have any suggestions for the site, please feel free to e-mail them to me using the “Contact Us” link at the bottom of every page. Find an error, go to that page and report the error from that page. It all helps us keep things fresh.

-Wesley Lovell (December 16, 2008)

New Predictions

As is my tradition around this time of year, I have updated my predictions not only with new information, but also ranking the chances of nominations in all the categories. I have chosen to add these “chances” in this first post-Guild nominations predictions list. SAG, being the first ouf of the gate, usually sets a few things in motion such as the beginning of the end of Revolutionary Road‘s chances at Best Picture. Most of my thoughts on the race are posted in the forums, so head their to check it out.

But, just click on the Predictions box to the right and go take a look at my latest thoughts on who’s going to triumph at this point in the competition.

-Wesley Lovell (December 18, 2008)

2009

The Week of Big Announcements

Today wasn’t the only big announcement this week as the Producers Guild of America are merely the first of the prominent guilds to announce this week.

The American Society of Cinematographers will either be revealed today or tomorrow, the Visual Effects Society should be announcing today or sometime this week, The Writers Guild of America announces its nominees on Wednesday, the Cinema Audio Society and the big daddy of precursor guilds, The Directors Guild of America, announce on Thursday, and the Art Directors Guild announces on Friday. That will take us into the weekend where the Golden Globe Awards will be announced on Sunday and be followed the next week by the American Cinema Editors, British Academy Awards and Costume Designers Guild.

And what does all this mean? A lot of changes to my predictions by Tuesday of next week…and the Oscar nominations are now less than three weeks away (Thursday, January 22, to be exact).

If you thought December was hectic with all the critics awards, just wait until January is over!

-Wesley Lovell (January 5, 2009)

More Oscar Finalists

We have two more sets of Oscar finalists to announce today. The Visual Effects and Makeup branches have selected the seven films from which they will select the final nominees. Usually, they select three each, but have in the past chosen only two. We’ll know more on Oscar nomination morning.

These finalists have been updated on my Hopefuls page, accessible by clicking the Predictions link at the right.

-Wesley Lovell (January 6, 2009)

New Predictions

A lot has happened since I last updated my predictions a week ago. Major guilds announced nominees, the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Golden Globes both announced their winners and thus, I feel compelled to update. These are not my final predictions. Those probably won’t come out until the day before the nominations. But, at this point, these are my best guesses. I still need to wait for the British Academy’s nominations on Thursday, the Costume Designers Guild and Visual Effects Society nominations on Saturday and, to a minor extent, the Online Film Critics Society winners on Sunday.

Once these four groups are done, there’s nothing else ahead of the Academy’s January 22 nominations, so I’ll be working on my final predicitons then along with an in depth article on Nominations morning, what to expect and how to gauge first-hand, and on-the-fly what the nominees will be based on who and what is announced early in the morning. Stay tuned for that as it will likely go up sometime this weekend or Monday morning depending on how much time I’ve got to work on it until then.

-Wesley Lovell (January 13, 2009)

Foreign Film Finalits & New Predictions, Part II

Just when I thought it was safe to update my predictions, things suddenly changed on me. The first was that the Academy, today, released the final nine contestants for the Foreign Language Film award nominations. This is new for them, so it was completely unexpected. Those nine films are included in my predictions list right now. In addition, the Costume Designers, sometime between when I first looked at their timetable and now, changed their nominations announcement to today. If I remember correctly, they did the same thing last year, but I had entirely forgotten and probably will next year as well. But, based on those nominations, I have further updated my predictions.

Also, sometime by the end of this week or the beginning of next, I will be posting my Oscar Morning primer detailing the live announcement of the 81st Annual Oscar nominations next Thursday. It is a resource I provide to help you know what to watch for and when to expect the surprises. It will also include a .pdf listing all the nominees in the categories to be announced in alphabetical order the way the Academy might read them off. This checklist will allow you to quickly take note of who was a nominee and who was not.

-Wesley Lovell (January 13, 2009)

Final Predictions, Part I

With only three days remaining until the nominations for the 81st Annual Academy Awards are announced, it’s time to get cracking on my final predictions.

I’ve actually had them done since late last week, but decided to hold off on updating them until today. Along with my predictions, over the next three days, I will post my thoughts on each of the races being run. Today, I have added comments for Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Documentary Feature and Documentary Short.

Tomorrow, I will reveal 8 more categories. To get to these comments and access my final predictions, visit the 81st Predictions block at the right.

In addition, I’ve prepared my traditional Oscar Morning aide. It’s designed to help you effortlessly watch the nominations announcements live and know what to expect as the nominations are announced. The Oscar Morning page has been updated on the 81st Oscars page, accessible through the 81st Oscars block at the right.

-Wesley Lovell (January 19, 2009)

Final Predictions, Part II

Two days to go and it’s time for another update to my Predictions Comments. The predictions on the 81st Predictions page linked to in the block at right are all up-to-date, but my comments on each race are being added one at a time. Today, you can find my notes on Best Animated Feature, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction and Costume Design.

And tomorrow, you’ll get all the remaining categories.

And don’t forget, the 81st Oscars page block-linked at the right, has a new page called Oscar Morning, where you can understand how the nominations will be announced on Thursday morning and how the order of announcements could change our perceptions of the race as the nominations are announced. It should help you know what to expect as names are being read. There’s also a .pdf linked at the top of the article that you can print out and track the nominations as they are announced.

-Wesley Lovell (January 20, 2009)

Final Predictions, Part III

And here we are. Less than 24 hours until the nominations for the 81st Academy Awards will be announced. It was announced today that Forest Whitaker will join Academy president Sid Ganis in the nominations announcement.

Today my analysis of this year’s nominations race culminates with my final post of my final predictions. The update includes a discussion of the categories Best Picture, Director, Editing, Cinematography, Makeup, Visual Effects and Foreign Language Film. To get there, just click the 81st Predictions link in the boxes at the right.

Also, if you have not printed out your Oscar Morning tracking sheet, just click the 81st Oscars box at the right and follow it to the Oscar Morning page nd download the .pdf.

If I don’t get my page updated before then, have a happy nominations Morning. I’ll post the final nominations as soon as possible on Thursday morning.

-Wesley Lovell (January 21, 2009)

81st Annual Academy Awards Nominations Forewarning

Today is the day the 81st Annual Academy Awards Nominations will be announced. Stay tuned for the posting of the nominations, which will be up just as soon as I can get them posted after the announcement.

Speaking of which, the announcement will be made starting around 5:35a (Pacific) and be announced by Academy president Sid Ganis and Oscar winner Forest Whitaker. You can probably catch it live on E!, CNN or any number of other outlets.

-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2009)

81st Annual Academy Awards Nominations

The nominations have been announced and they are now online. Just click the link above. I will have commentary later this evening.

-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2009)

Brief Commentary

I have posted the full list of nominees, correcting two errors I had yesterday (The Wrestler was inadvertently listed instead of Wanted in the sound categories) and adding the full list of individuals nominated alongside their films in all categories.

And now that I’ve had time to digest the nomines for the 81st Academy Awards, I find myself unable to really express my feelings towards them. I’m rooting for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but I’d accept virtually anything winning over Slumdog Millionaire, an interesting film that has been overhyped and paralyzed by partisans who look to its fate-controls-all mentality as a wonderful plot device. Yet, it suggests that no matter what our decisions fate will always see us through. And while I like the movie well enough, there were so many better films released this year and I just don’t understand how something so standard in make can be so heavily supported. But that’s my opinion only and will have no impact on my predictions.

Though, I must say I’m going against the grain and predicting an Oscar for Benjamin Button. You may wonder why and I’ll give you 13 reasons why. Only three films in Oscar history have managed to lose Best Picture with a 13-nom count. One of those was destined to lose because honoring a fantasy film, especially the first in a trilogy that no one knew how the rest would turn out certainly had no shot of winning (after all, with the disappointments of the Star Wars trilogies, The Matrix trilogies and the final chapter of The Godfather trilogy disappointing, the Academy took a wait-and-see attitude and gave it a victory later.

The other two, Mary Poppins and Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? may not have felt important enough to Academy voters to give their awards to. My Fair Lady was a far more adult film than Mary Poppins and was only one nod behind with 12. Woolf on the other hand was propelled by acting nominations, but lost to another period film about old English politics, A Man for All Seasons. Other factors working against the film are no acting nominations (though that didn’t stop Chariots of Fire, The Last Emperor or The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King from winning.

A lot will depend on how well these films perform with the guilds. DGA will probably tell us the most as I can’t imagine PGA not going for the more impressive box office tally of The Dark Knight. But, we’ll see. Enjoy your day.

-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2009)

And So The Race Ends

It began many months ago when critics who should have known better began to recognize Slumdog Millionaire that the ball started rolling. Hope has always been alive of another winner based on a number of other factors, but tonight, the Screen Actors Guild basically clinched the film the Oscar for Best Picture.

No, the Screen Actors Guild isn’t the best predicter of Best Picture, but this is a cast entire devoid of well known names. They aren’t Hollywood royalty and even those who’ve seen the film wouldn’t say that they were a particularly talented ensemble. But here we are. They win the Cast in a Motion Picture award from the Screen Actors Guild. If a film like this can win this award, then there is nothing standing in the way between it and Oscar victory.

Like many recent contests, the winners seem to be pre-ordained long before we get to the ceremony and little could be farther from the truth this year. We have a lock in Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director and, with a win tonight from SAG, a likely lock for Best Actor. And with the full force of two powerful performances, Kate Winslet has a very strong chance of winning her first Oscar.

So, what does that leave? Most people don’t care about the tech awards or the documentaries, short films and foreign language films and even some of those races seem to be little more than waiting games. The one bonafide competition is in Supporting Actress where Kate Winslet’s vacation to Best Actress makes it a truly competitive race. A strong case could be made for all of the nominees. Tonight’s award at the SAGs had no impact on the race whatsoever. So, now we have one potential shining spot of suspense and a bunch of perfunctory presentations.

I long for the days when movies I actually liked had a shot. But, who knows if that will ever happen again. This will be the fifth year in a row where another film in the Best Picture lineup has been better than the eventual winner. Let’s hope for a more exciting 2009 race.

Don’t let my disappointment keep you from enjoying the awards season. I will continue to bring you coverage of the latest precursor results and update the site faithfully as ne events unfold.

In addition, I have posted my first post-nomination predictions. Check them out at the 81st Predictions link at the right.

-Wesley Lovell (January 25, 2009)

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