October 7, 2011

The Ides of March

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “This is one of the year’s stronger contenders. Solidreviews and a likable cast could keep it in strong competition throughout awards season in several top tier categories.”
Oscar Results: Although its chances had been diminishing, its recent appearance on the Producers Guild Best Picture roster returns it to competition. Whether it’s just a little left over love for Clooney remains to be seen, but at this point, I’d be surprised if it picks up any Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “While the potential is there, the political nature of the film may keep a large number of people away from the film.”
Box Office Results: $40.9 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I wouldn’t say it was an exceptional total, but for a political film, I’d say it’s at least modestly successful.

Real Steel

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “I doubt the tech categories will be a factor, but Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing might have distant possibilities.”
Oscar Results: The film has been struggling to earn enough recognition to be a top-tier contender for Visual Effects, but it’s still in the running and the Visual Effects Society may tell us more.
Box Office Prediction: $125 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Against my better judgement, I’m giving this one a strong chance of making a solid total at the box office. Hugh Jackman despite a few recent duds is still a popular guy and this film has fanboy favorite written all over it.”
Box Office Results: $84.6 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Success] While it didn’t make the money I thought it would, the final total is something of a strong showing for a robot boxing film and considering how many other films that we questioned the reason for being, this one managed to exceed those expectations.

Wanderlust

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Comedy is king this year, but this R-rated comedy may be yet another dismal disappointment. So many other fall comedies that looked to key muscle into the race fell flat with audiences.”
Box Office Results: $N/A M
Thoughts: The film was moved to 2012-land.

October 14, 2011

The Big Year

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It’s so ludicrous a concept that it might actually work.It’s the kind of film that will test Jack Black’s ability to draw people to the theater, which remains limited.”
Box Office Results: $7.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The film had such big names attached that this colossal failure should key studios into the idea that every shiny turd does not make box office gold, contrary to conventional wisdom (and in certain cases success).

Footloose

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Remakes of semi-popular ’80s films have hardly done well at the box office, but dance films like this might have a decent shot at making some money.”
Box Office Results: $51.7 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Not what the producers were hoping for, but for a film that received a lukewarm reception and was one of a long series of potentially-unsuccessful remakes, the total isn’t bad.

The Thing

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The weekend of remakes features another ’80s “classic” hoping for a new audience. The original film is something of a celebrated work among horror enthusiasts, so them turning out for an obvious play at money may not work well.”
Box Office Results: $16.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Unlike Footloose, The Thing couldn’t parlay its cult status into a hefty box office result. Matter of fact, considering how noted the ’80s film was, you would have expected it to at least do better. I mean the Amityville Horror remake did quite well.

The Skin I Live In

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “If there’s a Spanish-language director the Academy likes to recognize, it’s Almodovar. However, he hasn’t had much luck in recent years and this may be a bit too bizarre for them.”
Oscar Results: It wasn’t submitted to the Foreign Language competition and although Almodovar has made a couple of appearances in screenwriting and directing categories at the Oscars. However, I think this film has too much other competition this year from better received foreign films (like A Separation), that I wouldn’t expect it to figure this year.
Box Office Prediction: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Almodovar isn’t a big name at the box office, so its potential is fairly limited. Curiosity seekers, intrigued by the concept might give it a chance, but it won’t help much.”
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For Almodovar, this is a good total and quite successful all things considered. Foreign films aren’t doing well at the box office, but this result is a nice, if smallish, total.

Texas Killing Fields

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Despite its festival pedigree and semi-positive word of mouth, the film just doesn’t seem to be igniting the way it needs to in order to be a major contender.”
Oscar Results: No positive word of mouth can overcome a dismal box office showing. The film came, went and is now forgotten.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Audiences have shown little interest in this type of dark potboiler, suggesting it probably won’t do much business.”
Box Office Results: $45.5 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Not only did it not do much business, it was an abject failure, not even cracking $100,000 at the box office in four months of release.

October 21, 2011

The Mighty Macs

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “With no major stars and lukewarm reception, the film looks like a dud in the making.”
Box Office Results: $1.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] An awful total for an inspirational film. Reviews and lack of interest killed it.

Johnny English Reborn

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It’s been eight years since the original and, as far as I’ve ever heard, it’s not a film that people immediately jump at saying should have a sequel. I imagine since the first film only did about $25 million in business, the sequel should under-perform that.”
Box Office Results: $8.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] No one really cared about the original, so I’m not surprised the sequel did so poorly. I was conservative on my prediction and it still managed to come in under that.

Paranormal Activity 3

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Even though the second film made less than the original, that never stopped the makers of the Saw franchise. This time around, I expect the total to be further diluted.”
Box Office Results: $104.0 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Major Success] Assuring a raft of sequels in the future, the film’s super-$100 million result just proves that a good scare can drum up great business even when the film’s fans are finding the franchise decreasing in quality as it goes along.

The Three Musketeers

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Art Direction and Costume Design are strong possibilities, but the Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects categories have a lot of contenders, probably too many for this film to sneak in.”
Oscar Results: The Art Directors Guild didn’t give it a nod and I’m betting the Costume Designers won’t either, which means the film’s chances are completely dead.
Box Office Prediction: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It has a lot of promise. A big budget, period actionadventure film could do Pirates of the Caribbean numbers, but I’m going to be cautious and suggest a total just north of $100 million.”
Box Office Results: $20.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Producers had hoped for a strong box office showing for this tightly-geared production. It didn’t succeed the way they wanted.

Martha Marcy May Marlene

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “There is heavy talk of star Elizabeth Olsen picking up an Oscar nomination for the film and it could result in a screenwriting nomination as well. Best Picture and Supporting Actor John Hawkes may also be in the cards.”
Oscar Results: The film’s chances are fading quickly. Although Elizabeth Olsen has gotten a lot of attention and awards for her performance, there are at least five others out there more likely to pick up Best Actress nominations. John Hawkes still has a shot at a Supporting Actor nomination and the film could figure in the Original Screenplay race, but everywhere else, it’s faded beyond hope.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Even if it catches on the way Winter’s Bone did last year, it won’t manage a very impressive tally.”
Box Office Results: $2.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Indepedent films are a tough sell in a national marketplace and MMMM just didn’t have the juice to turn its raft of critics’ praise into more than a passable box office total.

October 28, 2011

Anonymous

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Normally, the Emmerich name means a film is about to miss the mark in a number of categories, but everything I’ve read about this film suggests that it is a sumptuous feast with strong performances. Whether the film can enter the Best Picture or Best Director race, I am in doubt, but an acting nomination or two and especially Art Direction and Costume Design are definite possibilities.”
Oscar Results: The film didn’t do well with critics but the Art Directors and Costume Designers are sure to lap up this lavish spectacle. I still think it could be a threat for a nomination there.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Emmerich hasn’t been doing well commercially with his disaster or action films, so perhaps he’ll have a chance with the pro-Shakespeare crowds.”
Box Office Results: $4.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This is a colossal disappointment. There was plenty of advertising for it and Roland Emmerich’s name could have been a selling point, but it wasn’t.

In Time

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Because the film looks like it may be more mainstream than Source Code, I imagine it will not compete in many categories with Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects its only hopes.”
Oscar Results: The film just didn’t make enough of a splash to earn Oscar attention.
Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The concept is so original that I think it will find several fans, not only from those who love action films, but also sci-fi geeks who want to take in any clever idea they can find. It’s a potent combination that should do better for this film than it did for Source Code.”
Box Office Results: $37.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Although I predicted it much higher than it actually achieved, science fiction isn’t an easy sell and the final result isn’t too bad…unless you consider that Justin Timberlake is supposed to be some kind of box office draw (a statement I’ve never actually believed).

The Rum Diary

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “There has been talk since the film was in the pipeline for release last year that Depp could be nominated. Yet, since the film didn’t find a date for theaters until this year, it may not be much of a possibility.”
Oscar Results: Depp’s Oscar prospects continue to fail.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Depp can sometimes be a strong box office draw, but at other times (like last year’s pseudo-dud The Tourist), his name alone isn’t enough to bring massive audiences to the theater.”
Box Office Results: $13.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised that this film didn’t take off. Hunter S. Thompson isn’t exactly everyone’s cup of tea.

Like Crazy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The film won two prizes at the Sundance film festival this year: the Grand Jury Prize and a special prize for acting to Felicity Jones. It could carry those impressive wins into the Oscar, but I suspect it will be overshadowed by a lot of bigger, more Oscar-friendly films.”
Oscar Results: The film never gained traction as an Oscar contender and now has fallen by the wayside as I expected.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “A suitable indie stream of business should help this film pull solid, but not impressive numbers.”
Box Office Results: $3.4 M (still in release)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It’s not a bad total for an indie film, but based on the buzz around it, it should have scored a little better.