The year has had some strong months, mostly due to high grosses from two particular films The Hunger Games from March and The Avengers from two weeks ago. While I think the closest any film in June will come to these is Brave‘s 270 million prediction, it’s going to be an overall stronger breakdown per weekend. So, here are my predictions for the upcoming month of June with the standard caveat that I’m not great at the numbers game, but I do my very best.

June 1-3, 2012

Battlefield America

Premise: “A young businessman hires an instructor to turn a group of misfit kids into a team on the underground dance competition circuit.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: The first Step Up film earned a sizable amount guaranteeing a franchise. This one has had far less press, but should perform about on par with the dance extravaganza.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Snow White and the Huntsman

Premise: “In a twist to the fairy tale, the Huntsman ordered to take Snow White into the woods to be killed winds up becoming her protector and mentor in a quest to vanquish the Evil Queen.”
Box Office Prospects: $165 M
Expectations: Anything less will be seen as a disappointment. Anything more will be celebrated. It only has one week to prove its potential with a June slate filled with heavy hitters likely to eat away at Snow White‘s apple.
Oscar Prospects: In the battle of the Snow White films, this film has more chances at nominations in categories like Art Direction, Makeup and the sound categories. Yet, Mirror Mirror may beat it to the Costume Design punch. Of course, if the film tanks with critics and/or audiences, it might be ignored entirely.

June 8-10, 2011

Madgascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted

Premise: “Alex, Marty, Gloria and Melman are still fighting to get home to their beloved Big Apple. Their journey takes them through Europe where they find the perfect cover: a traveling circus, which they reinvent – Madagascar style.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Both prior films, despite modest responses from critics, still managed to dominate the box office. This time, however, the stiff Summer competition, especially the release of Brave two weeks later, will quickly cannibalize the film which should be lucky to make my prediction.
Oscar Prospects: The franchise hasn’t done well at the Oscars, so Best Animated Feature is its only hope and even that is highly unlikely.

Prometheus

Premise: “A team of explorers discover a clue to the origins of mankind on Earth, leading them on a journey to the darkest corners of the universe. There, they must fight a terrifying battle to save the future of the human race.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: With no equitable comparison in recent memory, this return to the depths of the Alien mythos is likely to be a big hit with fans of the franchise even if the prior two outings were rather lackluster.
Oscar Prospects: The first three films in the franchise did well with the Academy, leading me to think that several categories (Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects) could be in play, but if it’s received like the fourth film was, it might not place at all.

Bel Ami

Premise: “A chronicle of a young man’s rise to power in Paris via his manipulation of the city’s most influential and wealthy women.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Robert Pattinson isn’t a box office draw. His two solo efforts on prior occasions didn’t manage more than $60 million. Being a period drama isn’t likely to persuade those who aren’t a fan of the Twilight franchise to give him a look…even Water for Elephants had the bonus of being based on a celebrated novel and it barely reached $58 million.
Oscar Prospects: Like Water for Elephants, there will be a push for this film to compete in several categories including Art Direction and Costume Design, but like the aforementioned film, I think it will come up short with Oscar unless it has critics in its corner.

June 15-17, 2012

Rock of Ages

Premise: “Set in 1987 Los Angeles, Drew and Sherrie are two young people chasing their dreams in the big city. When they meet, it’s love at first sight, though their romance will face a series of challenges.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Although this film doesn’t have the teen backing the director’s Hairspray had, a lot of fans of 1980’s rock music will be curious to see if their favorite songs will be done justice. With a rather notable cast in tow, it should do quite well.
Oscar Prospects: For musicals, Sound Mixing is the one category they have much of a shot in and even that isn’t always to be expected. Still, if there’s a new song in the film, it could be among the nominees, though that didn’t pan out for Hairspray, so who knows at this point.

That’s My Boy

Premise: “While still in his teens, Donny (Adam Sandler) fathered a son, Todd (Andy Samberg), and raised him as a single parent up until Todd’s 18th birthday. Now, after not seeing each other for years, Todd’s world comes crashing down.”
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Expectations: Is the Adam Sandler era over? His last film made south of $75 million, a far cry from his typical business. Yet, this outrageous concept should do well to bring his fans back to the theaters, but will he top $100 million again? We’ll see.
Oscar Prospects: None.

June 22-24, 2012

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter

Premise: “Abraham Lincoln, the 16th President of the United States, discovers vampires are planning to take over the United States. He makes it his mission to eliminate them.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Going into the 2010 Summer season, I would have expected Jonah Hex to do better business than it did. That film flopped. While I don’t think this one will fail as miserably, being sandwiched between so many top notch box office contenders will no doubt dwarf the film’s performance. I wouldn’t be surprised if it stopped around Priest-level of $30 million, but I think it may do slightly better out of sure curiosity.
Oscar Prospects: Like Cowboys & Aliens and Jonah Hex, initial temptation is to include this film in Art Direction and Costume Design, possibly even makeup, without knowing what the critics will say. But even then, the film really has no chance at either.

Brave

Premise: “Determined to make her own path in life, Princess Merida defies a custom that brings chaos to her kingdom. Granted one wish, Merida must rely on her bravery and her archery skills to undo a beastly curse.”
Box Office Prospects: $270 M
Expectations: Pixar’s films have been solid performers each time out of the gate. Even the earliest works would make more than $200 million if adjusted for inflation with the lone exception of the critically maligned Cars 2. I see Brave Doing very well and ranking at least in the top 5 unadjusted grosses in history.
Oscar Prospects: After last year’s Cars 2 debacle, Pixar’s streak is broken, but it’s a short hiccup because every indication points to Brave doing much better than the ill-advised sequel. So, Best Animated Feature is a pretty strong given at this point (unless critics really turn on this one) and even a Best Picture nomination can’t be counted out (especially if critics love it like most other past Pixar films). Then there are categories like Original Score, Original Song and Sound Editing that are all strong possibilities as well.

Seeking a Friend for the End of the World

Premise: “As an asteroid nears Earth, a man finds himself alone after his wife leaves in a panic. He decides to take a road trip to reunite with his high school sweetheart. Accompanying him is a neighbor who inadvertently puts a wrench in his plan.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Steve Carell has only had one dud in the last 7 years and even that came close to $50 million. I see this one performing well with those who don’t typically find Carell funny as the movie looks quite a bit different than his usual fare. Unfortunately, if this performs the same way that Will Ferrell’s atypical project Stranger Than Fiction performed. The difference here is that Ferrell has had far more duds to his career than Carell, so he has may have a step up on him.
Oscar Prospects: Steve Carell’s comedies, even when well-received by critics, are seldom contenders at the Oscars. Things could change with this one, but I’m not counting on it.

To Rome With Love

Premise: “A story about a number of people in Italy, some American, some Italian, some residents, some visitors, and the romances and adventures and predicaments they get into.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Although Midnight in Paris was a fairly sizable hit for Allen, his recent resume hasn’t been as gracefully strong. His best performers tend to range in the $20-25 million range, but usually because of Oscar buzz. So, if this one doesn’t build it, don’t expect it to perform that well.
Oscar Prospects: Woody Allen’s latest outing will undoubtedly garner buzz after last year’s major Midnight in Paris love, but his recent history isn’t in favor. Even Vicky Cristina Barcelona, which netted Penelope Cruz an Oscar, didn’t get an Original Screenplay nomination, the category with which Allen is most familiar. So we need to wait until critics fully weigh in and if it’s less than ecstatic, lightning will probably not strike twice.

June 29-July 1, 2012

G.I. Joe: Retaliation

Premise: “The G.I. Joes are not only fighting their mortal enemy Cobra; they are forced to contend with threats from within the government that jeopardize their very existence.”
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Expectations: The first film took home $150 million at the box office. They’ve tried to goose up this release by adding purportedly strong box office performers Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Bruce Willis. Unfortunately for the studio, Johnson’s best box office tallies were for films in which he starred with other prominent actors (Get Smart and The Other Guys) or in well-established franchises (Fast Five and Journey 2). Willis’ films have been even worse performers with only his Die Hard franchise and the ably-supported Red bolstering his recent numbers. But, as this is a sequel, it’s likely to perform well even if it is a sequel to a rather dull film. What will keep it from doing much in the long haul is a hefty July slate filled with other box office blockbusters-in-waiting.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Magic Mike

Premise: “Mike, an experienced stripper, takes a younger performer called The Kid under his wing and schools him in the arts of partying, picking up women, and making easy money.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: The producers are hoping that the sexy stars of the film will bolster female attendance. The problem is that Channing Tatum’s past prowess at the box office has been bolstered either by a large male demographic or men going with their girlfriends/wives. It will be much harder to persuade those “manly” men into checking out a film about male strippers, especially without any major promise of female nudity. Still, if the film’s good enough and develops good enough word of mouth it could be potent, I just wouldn’t put money on it.
Oscar Prospects: Steven Soderbergh’s male stripper drama is a bit out of the norm for him and the trailer makes it feel like a Cameron Crowe film. Either way, this movie just doesn’t seem like the kind of production the Academy takes seriously, but if Channing Tatum is remotely good, there will undoubtedly be calls to recognize him…just not from the majority of Academy members.

People Like Us

Premise: “A man is tasked with delivering $150,000 of his deceased father’s fortune to the sister he has never met.”
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Expectations: Chris Pine hasn’t been tested as a romantic lead outside of his bomb This Means War, which got dumped unceremoniously into the earlier part of this year. Still, this film, unlike Magic Mike is much more likely to draw women and their significant others to the theater making it the more likely hit.
Oscar Prospects: On paper, it might seem like a good bet for sleeper box office success, but from an Academy perspective, director Alex Kurtzman just doesn’t have the history to tell us how well his film might perform.

Take This Waltz

Premise: “A happily married woman falls for the artist who lives across the street.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Pairing director Sarah Polley with indie darling Michelle Williams should mean a sizable indie take at the box office, but don’t expect anything miraculous in terms of numbers.
Oscar Prospects: Sarah Polley’s first film earned two Oscar nominations. I can see this film doing equally well with nominations for writing and Best Actress Michelle Williams. If it’s better marketed and sold by critics than Away from Her, it might be a strong contender for the Oscars.

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection

Premise: “A Wall Street investment banker who has been set up as the linchpin of his company’s mob-backed Ponzi scheme is relocated with his family to Aunt Madea’s southern home.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: It may not seem like much, but in Tyler Perry’s canon, this is a strong performance. While Madea is a far more popular character for him, he has had a few outside hits without her. Still, the dearth of films catering to black audiences in the summer should galvanize a strong opening and a solid take from the box office keeping Perry’s stellar track record going.
Oscar Prospects: None.