2018 Summer Season Preview Wrap-Up: June

Let’s take a look back at our prior preview and see where we were right, wrong, and everything in between.

June 1, 2018

Action Point

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film looks cheap and while I would like to say it looks like a film that will flop, the Jackass team has been modestly successful in the recent past, so I can’t claim it will be a huge success, but it will probably be some sort of success.”
Box Office Results: $5.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Proof that not everything the old Jackass team turns to gold.

Adrift

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Romantic dramas are a tough sell to audiences and one that looks to be filled with long pauses and a lack of action isn’t sure to draw people to the cinema.”
Box Office Results: $31.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While it outperformed my expectations, the end result isn’t terribly impressive.

June 8, 2018

Hereditary

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $5.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s the kind of movie that does well in limited release, but going wide is often a mistake, especially in the Summer where competition is far more fierce.”
Box Office Results: $44.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] The film managed to pick up on the critical acclaim to be a decent hit on the horror circuit.

Ocean’s 8

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The female version of Ocean’s Eleven is very likely to be a huge hit, especially with the talent involved and audience pre-disposition to heist films.”
Box Office Results: $139.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it didn’t quite match expectations, it’s hard not to say this was a small success.

June 15, 2018

Incredibles 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The big question is if this film can buck Pixar’s weak performance for sequels at the Oscars. The original film was a winner and the sequel could perform very well if it follows the Toy Story 3 trajectory rather than the trajectory of every other sequel and prequel Pixar has put out.”
Oscar Results: Far exceeding expectations, the film did tremendous box office numbers.
Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The original film is a legend and its significance has only grown, outpaced in growth only by the desire to see a sequel. Here it is and it will be huge.”
Box Office Results: $607.6 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Major Success] The film is one of only a few animated films this year and still one of the better reviewed. It’s likely to follow the Toy Story sequel trend with the Oscars rather than all of the other sequel/prequel Oscar failures Pixar has had.

Superfly

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film has had minimal advertisement, which may hinder its chances and against a large swath of summer blockbusters, it will struggle to find its audience.”
Box Office Results: $20.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] A horrendous lack of advertising managed to make this potential solid performer a disappointment.

Tag

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first trailer has some amusing moments in it, but it doesn’t look like the kind of film that can be an enormous success.”
Box Office Results: $54.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The age of R-rated comedies dominating the box office seems to have come to an end as this film should have appealed to the same folk who made films like Horrible Bosses massively successful.

June 22, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The first film struggled with Academy voters and will likely do so again, though the three techiest of tech awards (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects) are sure to be its primary places of competitiveness.”
Oscar Results: The film could still make a ply in some of the tech categories, but the critics weren’t kind, which gives Oscar voters a chance to ignore the film like they have most of Jurassic Park‘s sequels.
Box Office Prospects: $550 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Sequels rarely perform as well as their predecessors, so this film has its work cut out for it, but as the Star Wars and Avengers franchises have shown, lightning can and does strike multiple times.”
Box Office Results: $416.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The original film was a massive success. The rebooted Jurassic World was also huge at the box office. Yet, this sequel, while still doing sizable business, is quite a disappointment after its predecessor’s $652 haul. Adjusted for inflation, this film falls fourth of five films in the series’ box office rankings.

June 29, 2018

Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first film was a surprise success, but the sequel lacks two things its predecessor had: the unquestionable talents of Emily Blunt in the lead and Denis Villeneuve in the driver’s seat. Neither are back and while there might be some interest in seeing the all-male sequel, those who went to see the original and are angry at Blunt’s absence aren’t likely to give it much of a chance.”
Box Office Results: $50.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The prior film was a did well enough and this film did surpass it even if by a scant $4 million. That said, it still managed to place under its predecessor when taking inflation into account, but the difference is less than $1 million, so not a disapointment, but not a rousing success story either.

Uncle Drew

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Like , the demographic appeal of this film can give a modest box office boost, but not enough of one to make them huge successes. This being a comedy might be more appealing, but it might also be too weird for some.”
Box Office Results: $42.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Targeting a narrow demographic works well even if the end result isn’t incredibly grand.

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