FINAL: MARCH 24, 2022

I’ve made some minor tweaks here or there, but I’m pretty much set now on my final predictions. It all ends in three days.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

NEW: FEBRUARY 8, 2022

While on the surface, the year has been a bit unpredictable, the potential winners haven’t changed much in the last months.

UPDATED: MARCH 14, 2022

Things have mostly settled. I’ve still got some tinkering to do with four precursors this weekend, but these are nearing final territory.

Best Picture

• CODA – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger (o-3/19) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, Roger Frappier — Toss Up —
• Dune – Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve, Cale Boyter — Toss Up —
• Belfast – Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, Tamar Thomas — Toss Up —
• King Richard – Tim White, Trevor White, Will Smith — Toss Up —
• West Side Story – Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger — Toss Up —
• Licorice Pizza – Sara Murphy, Adam Somner, Paul Thomas Anderson — Doubtful —
• Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, Kevin Messick — Doubtful —
• Drive My Car – Teruhisa Yamamoto — Long Shot —
• Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, Bradley Cooper — Long Shot —

Best Animated Film

• Encanto – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, Clark Spencer (o-6/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Kurt Albrecht — Toss Up —
• Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Charlotte De La Gournerie — Toss Up —
• Luca – Enrico Casarosa, Andrea Warren — Long Shot —
• Raya and the Last Dragon – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer, Peter Del Vecho — Long Shot —

Best Directing

• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (o-12/24) — Certain —
•  
• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh — Spolier —
• West Side Story – Steven Spielberg — Spolier —
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson — Doubtful —
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi — Long Shot —

Best Actor

• Will Smith – King Richard (o-3/13) — Likely —
•  
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog — Spolier —
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! — Spolier —
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth — Doubtful —
• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos — Long Shot —

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (o-2/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers — Toss Up —
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer — Toss Up —
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos — Toss Up —
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter — Toss Up —

Best Supporting Actor

• Troy Kotsur – CODA (o-2/27) — Likely —
•  
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog — Spolier —
• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast — Spolier —
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog — Long Shot —
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (o-12/24) — Likely —
•  
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog — Spolier —
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard — Spolier —
• Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter — Spolier —
• Judi Dench – Belfast — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (o-10/10) — Toss Up —
•  
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson — Toss Up —
• Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota — Toss Up —
• King Richard – Zach Baylin — Doubtful —
• The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• CODA – Siân Heder (o-2/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion — Toss Up —
• The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal — Spolier —
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe — Spolier —
• Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

• No Time to Die (Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell) – No Time to Die (o-2/24) — Toss Up —
•  
• Dos Oruguitas (Lin-Manuel Miranda) – Encanto — Toss Up —
• Be Alive (DIXSON, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter) – King Richard — Toss Up —
• Down to Joy (Van Morrison) – Belfast — Doubtful —
• Somehow You Do (Diane Warren) – Four Good Days — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

• Dune – Hans Zimmer (o-6/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood — Toss Up —
• Encanto – Germaine Franco — Toss Up —
• Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell — Doubtful —
• Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias — Doubtful —

Best Editing

• Dune – Joe Walker (o-3/22) — Toss Up —
•  
• King Richard – Pamela Martin — Toss Up —
• tick, tick…BOOM! – Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum — Toss Up —
• Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin — Spolier —
• The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

• Dune – Greig Fraser (o-6/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner — Toss Up —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel — Toss Up —
• West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski — Doubtful —
• Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

• Dune – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos (o-3/13) — Toss Up —
•  
• Nightmare Alley – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau — Toss Up —
• West Side Story – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo — Spolier —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh — Doubtful —
• The Power of the Dog – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards — Long Shot —

Best Costume Design

• Cruella – Jenny Beavan (o-6/28) — Likely —
•  
• West Side Story – Paul Tazewell — Spolier —
• Dune – Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan — Spolier —
• Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran — Spolier —
• Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira — Spolier —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh (o-3/3) — Toss Up —
•  
• Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, Julia Vernon — Toss Up —
• Coming 2 America – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, Carla Farmer — Toss Up —
• Dune – Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr — Toss Up —
• House of Gucci – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock, Frederic Aspiras — Doubtful —

Best Sound

• Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett (o-6/28) — Likely —
•  
• West Side Story – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Shawn Murphy — Spolier —
• No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor — Spolier —
• Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, Niv Adiri — Long Shot —
• The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, Tara Webb — Long Shot —

Best Visual Effects

• Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer (o-6/28) — Certain —
•  
• Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, Dan Sudick — Spolier —
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, Dan Oliver — Spolier —
• Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, Dan Sudick — Spolier —
• No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, Chris Corbould — Long Shot —

Best International Feature Film

• Drive My Car – Japan (o-12/6) — Certain —
•  
• Flee – Denmark — Spolier —
• The Worst Person in the World – Norway — Spolier —
• The Hand of God – Italy — Doubtful —
• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom – Bhutan — Long Shot —

Best Documentary Feature

• Summer of Soul – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent, David Dinerstein (o-12/6) — Likely —
•  
• Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Charlotte De La Gournerie — Spolier —
• Attica – Stanley Nelson, Traci A. Curry — Spolier —
• Writing with Fire – Rintu Thomas, Sushmit Ghosh — Spolier —
• Ascension – Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy, Nathan Truesdell — Spolier —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Audible – Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean (o-2/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• Lead Me Home – Pedro Kos, Jon Shenk — Toss Up —
• The Queen of Basketball – Ben Proudfoot — Toss Up —
• Three Songs for Benazir – Elizabeth Mirzaei, Gulistan Mirzaei — Toss Up —
• When We Were Bullies – Jay Rosenblatt — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

• Robin Robin – Dan Ojari, Mikey Please (o-2/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• Affairs of the Art – Joanna Quinn, Les Mills — Toss Up —
• Bestia – Hugo Covarrubias, Tevo Díaz — Toss Up —
• Boxballet – Anton Dyakov — Toss Up —
• The Windshield Wiper – Alberto Mielgo, Leo Sanchez — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

• Ala Kachuu – Take and Run – Take and Run – Maria Brendle, Nadine Lüchinger (o-2/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Dress – Tadeusz Lysiak, Maciej Slesicki — Toss Up —
• The Long Goodbye – Aneil Karia, Riz Ahmed — Toss Up —
• On My Mind – Martin Strange-Hansen, Kim Magnusson — Toss Up —
• Please Hold – K.D. Dávila, Levin Menekse — Toss Up —