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Game: 2012 Summer Box Office Predictions: Rules

Back to where it all began. In the Summer of 2010, we held our first Box Office Prediction contest. We're back at it again this month.

This contest begins the weekend of May 4-6, 2012 and continues through the weekend of August 24-26, 2012.

Unlike previous games, we won't be having a single overriding total. We'll have multiple divisions as usual, but none of them will combined, you will be competing to win each separate category. Division 4 will not be completed until all of the films in the contest have hit DVD. Division 5 will not be completed until after the Academy Awards in February 2013.

AFTER you finish reading the rules, be sure to post your predictions for this week.

Each week, on Wednesday, we will post a call for entries. You will have until midnight Central (U.S.) on Friday to post or edit your submissions for the contest. After that time, any changes will nullify your predictions for that week's entry. Results will be posted on Wednesday of the following week. If you miss the deadline, you can still participate in the remaining weeks of the contest. Missing any number of weeks will not disqualify you.

All of the above will be based on the upcoming weekend box office from Friday through Sunday only. The #1 film of the week could be either a holdover or a new release. The answers for the rest of the game will always come from a pre-listed group of films. If no one correctly predicts the #1 film at the box office, no one will get that point. If no one correctly guesses the film that will be the top new release, no one will get that point either even if their gross prediction was closest (it was just for the wrong film).

We will be using boxofficemojo.com to verify results based on the Actual numbers released the following Monday afternoon (or Tuesday afternoon if Monday is a Holiday). Estimates will not be used to determine winners.

Since this is a competition without prizes, just bragging rights, there will be no breaking of ties. You are encouraged to make predictions different than your fellow competitors, but some duplication is acceptable, though excessive cribbing may result in disqualification.

DIVISION ONE RULES

  1. Guess the #1 Film at the U.S. weekend box office - 1 Point
  2. Guess how much the #1 Film will make, if it is not also the highest grossing new wide release - 1 Point (closest to the final result)
  3. Guess the highest grossing new wide release - 1 Point
  4. Guess how much the highest grossing new wide release will earn - 1 Point (closest to the final result)
  5. See below for specific increments for predictions.

DIVISION TWO RULES

  1. Guess which films will place in the Top 10 of the weekend - 1 Point (per correct prediction)
  2. Guess in what order the Top 10 of the Weekend will be - 1 Point (per correct position)

DIVISION THREE RULES

  1. Guess how much each film in the Top 10 will earn - Variable Points (see below)
  2. See below for specific increments for predictions.

DIVISION FOUR RULES

  1. Guess the total each newly-wide release will make in its full run at the box office - Variable Points (see below)
  2. See below for specific increments for predictions.
  3. All eligible prediction candidates will be listed on the weekly post calling for entries. You may not predict using films that are not listed.

DIVISION FIVE RULES

  1. Predict whether a new release will be awarded an Academy Award - 1 Point
  2. Predict whether a new release will be nominated for an Academy Award - 1 Point
  3. Predict whether a new release will be awarded by any awards-giving body other than the Academy (Razzies excluded, only groups covered by Cinema Sight will qualify) - 1 Point
  4. Predict whether a new release will be nominated by any awards-giving body other than the Academy (Razzies excluded, only groups covered by Cinema Sight will qualify) - 1 Point
  5. You may not make predictions after the normal Friday deadline.
  6. You may not change your predictions after the normal Friday deadline.
  7. Saying a film will win an Academy Award or an award from another awards-giving body (not including festivals) will also count as a prediction of a nomination (e.g. Let's say you prediction Film A will win an Academy Award. If Film A is nominated, but does not win, you will still get 1 point for predicting a nomination).

DIVISION THREE & DIVISION FOUR SPECIAL POINT VALUATIONS

In Division 3, there will not be individual points handed out. Instead, we will be awarding Box Office Bucks. Each player makes a prediction for each of the ten films they believe will be in the Top 10 for the week. Each film that completes the weekend in the top 10 will be awarded Box Office Bucks equal to the appropriate increment (traditional rounding applies). Each increment a prediction is off by reduces that player's Box Office Bucks total by an equal amount. Here's an example:

Player A predicts Film A will earn $50 million at the box office.
Player B predicts it will make $42 million.
Film A completes the weekend at $46.7 million.
Film A is worth $47 million (rounded up to the next nearest increment).
Player A was off by $3 million, so he is awarded $44 million ($47 million minus $3 million).
Player B was off by $5 million, so she is awarded $42 million.

The total Box Office Bucks each player receives will tally together for Game-long winners.

BOX OFF PREDICTION INCREMENTS

  1. $50 million or higher - $5 million increments
  2. $25 million to $49 million - $1 million increments
  3. $5 million to $24.5 million - $500,000 increments
  4. $4.9 million or lower - $100,000 increments
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  1. 1. The Avengers 155M (410M)
    2. Think Like a Man 10M
    3. The Pirates 7.5M
    4. The Hunger Games 7M
    5. Five-Year Engagement 6.5M
    6. The Lucky One 5.5M
    7. Safe 3.5M
    8. The Raven 3.4M
    9. Chimpanzee 2.8M
    10. The Three Stooges 2.4M

    The Avengers (nominated for Oscars and lower)


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