As the precursor awards continue unabated through the month of December, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (this will be in place of my prior weekly article “Oscar Preview”. Today, we look back at the results of the several critics groups that announced this week (the majority Sunday). There are even more groups coming this week, so next week will be rather hectic.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 3

Dec. 12 – Indiana Film Critics (guesstimate)
Dec. 13 – Broadcast Film Critics Association Nominations (guesstimate)
Dec. 13 – San Diego Film Critics Nominations(guesstimate)
Dec. 14 – Austin Film Critics (guesstimate)
Dec. 14 – Chicago Film Critics Nominations
Dec. 14 – Dallas/Fort Worth Film Critics (guesstimate)
Dec. 14 – Screen Actors Guild Nominations
Dec. 14 – Toronto Film Critics
Dec. 15 – Detroit Film Critics Society Winners (guesstimate)
Dec. 15 – Golden Globe Nominations
Dec. 16 – Houston Film Critics Winners (guesstimate)
Dec. 16 – Utah Film Critics (guesstimate)
Dec. 18 – Satellite Awards (guesstimate)

Big Winners

Take Shelter A film that I thought for sure would be forgotten by Oscar time (the film arrived at Sundance and debuted in theaters at the end of September), has managed to hang on for dear life and its two stars, Jessica Chastain and especially Michael Shannon, have gotten a lot of attention. Shannon has emerged into a race that once would have excluded him. Whether he can make it to the final field of five remains to be seen, but the film will most likely not be forgotten by voters.
Albert Brooks Before Drive, Brooks was mostly considered a comic actor. Starring opposite Meryl Streep in Defending Your Life and Debbie Reynolds in Mother among many others, he has a long and varied career. Yet, it’s for his dark and unexpected turn in Drive that he’s suddenly emerged as an Oscar contender. Until he started winning nearly every critics prize in sight, most would have pegged veteran Christopher Plummer for a career Oscar for Beginners, but now that future is uncertain. Brooks is now a lock for a nomination and could even emerge as a winner.
The Artist There are few films steamrolling the competition this year, but Michel Hazanavicius’ black-and-white, silent film has been earning raves from critics. And as a popular festival hit, its homage to the glory days of filmmaking may carry it straight to the Oscar podium, becoming only the second silent film in Oscar history to win the Best Picture prize. There’s a long way still to go, but with this many prizes hefted on it, I’m having a hard time imagining another film overtaking it in the weeks ahead.
Moneyball‘s screenplay has picked up more prizes than I ever would have imagined. Whether it’s leftover love for Aaron Sorking after his frequently hailed script for The Social Network last year, a genuine love for the West Wing scribe or true admiration for the film is hard to be certain, but the film may not be much of a Best Picture candidate, but I’d be surprised not to see it land a few above-the-line categories.
Melissa McCarthy She hasn’t quite gotten all of the prizes she would need to launch into a bona fide Oscar nomination, McCarthy is slowly picking up momentum. While she doesn’t have Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder) level support, the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild awards are likely to give her sizable boosts, which could carry her all the way to the Kodak. She won’t win, but after her Emmy Award this year, there’s little doubt that she’s having an amazing 2011.
Jessica Chastain She has had an amazing year, with no less than six films in release this year. She’s earned several breakthrough prizes and with a roster of Oscar contending films like she has (The Tree of Life, Take Shelter, The Help , Coriolanus) who could deny she’s got the makings of a star and an Oscar nominee…

Big Losers

Jessica Chastain In spite of the vast attention paid to this up-and-comer, Chastain’s fates are tied to a rally around a specific film. So far, she’s been recognized individually for The Tree of Life and Take Shelter, but with The Help already out there and Coriolanus soon to come out, further confusion could emerge and she could end up ignored entirely by the Academy.
Glenn Close She may still have a chance of SAG and the Golden Globes give her a mention, but Close hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention from the precursors as she needed. Her performance is strong, but with so many contenders in Best Actress this year, the ones with the most attention will get nominations and considering she was once perceived as a near-lock on a nomination, she’s now going to be lucky to squeak by.
Steven Spielberg Spielberg has two films in competition this year and so far neither film has really gotten the attention one of the great modern filmmakers should have. War Horse has a few mentions, but nothing spectacular and The Adventures of Tintin has only managed to wrest one Animated Feature trophy out of Rango‘s hands. Both films could still do well with the Academy, but with each passing precursor, his chances dwindle.
Warrior The film came out to strong reviews, but has so far failed to materialize much in the way of precursor attention. Nick Nolte has been mentioned a couple of times, but only as a nominee as has Tom Hardy, but the film has so far come up nil in terms of awards. It’s still highly rated by audiences, but without critics to back it, the film may end up forgotten.

Individual Analyses

Washington D.C. Critics

Shortly after announcing their nominees (too short a span to make the nominees of much interest outside of curiosity), the D.C. Critics announced the winners. There are only three real surprises of any kind. The first is Octavia Spencer earning her first and likely only precursor for supporting actress in The Help, the second is choosing the cancer dramedy 50/50 for Best Original Screenplay and the third is giving the Best Ensemble award to Bridesmaids. If there’s a group more mainstream than this in 2011, I’d be surprised. Statistically, though they have a perfect score in the last five years for earning their winners nominations in Animated Feature (this year Rango, Director (Martin Scorsese), Actor (George Clooney), Actress (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor (Albert Brooks) and Documentary Feature (Cave of Forgotten Dreams). Their streak will end with Documentary Feature as Werner Herzog’s film didn’t make the short list, but the rest are all unlikely to be ignored, so they haven’t really proven to be a barometer anymore than they have proven they can choose likely nominees. Though, they are 5/5 for Animated Feature and 4/5 in both Director and Supporting Actor categories, which is definitely worth noting.

Annie Awards Nominations

The disagreement between Disney and the Annie Awards has apparently been forgotten (they were arguing over nominating procedures). While Disney doesn’t have the representation one might normally expect, the large quantity of DreamWorks members with this animation organization creates a bit of dwarfing in terms of statistics. Kung Fu Panda 2 topped the list with twelve nominations and Puss in Boots grabbed 9. Disney’s Winnie the Pooh picked up eight while Cars 2 picked up 7. That’s a lot more than one would have expected from this group, especially considering how poorly received the Cars sequel was received. But it wasn’t Cars 2 that failed to live up to expectations, but Happy Feet Two. Of course, the Annie’s gave their prize to Cars back in 2006 while Happy Feet won the Oscar. The Annies only gave the original two nominations. This year, it was left out entirely.

Boston Critics

One of the eldest critics groups out there, Boston hasn’t been known for playing the spoiler, but their mention of Melissa McCarthy may help her towards a nomination, giving her some credibility. The rest of the prizes were rather unexceptional, most of them fairly plain selections. Picture, Director, Supporting Actor and Screenplay frequently yield Oscar nominations, but like with D.C., none of their choices were terribly surprising (The Artist, Martin Scorsese, Brad Pitt, Albert Brooks and Moneyball respectively. As for Oscar carryover? Boston isn’t terribly astute, it’s predicted 4/5 of the last predictions in only Picture and Supporting Actor, again, with results this week that aren’t likely to be argued as like Oscar victors.

Los Angeles Critics

L.A. seems to be taking up the mantle that the New York Film Critics Circle has begun to abandon. Their fairly eclectic choices stand out among this year’s awards so far, failing to hop on any major bandwagons. For the last three years, the L.A. critics have avoided any predictive choice in the Best Actress category, this year choosing another foreign language performance. As for the rest, Animated Film (Rango), Director (Terrence Malick) and Actor (Michael Fassbender) have gone five for five at predicting the Oscars recently, giving them a notable boost up. However, only Rango is assured a nomination. Malick hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention as he did when he made a surprisingly strong showing with his film The Thin Red Line, which bodes poorly for his chances this year and without more critics prizes, Michael Fassbender’s outstanding year may be short lived. Still, a nomination for either would not be surprising at this point. But Fassbender should feel pretty good about this result as the last five Best Actor winners from L.A. went on to claim Oscars. I don’t think that will occur this year, but Fassbender hopes. The only other category with more than 2/5 predictability in the last five years is Animated Feature where the L.A. Critics are 4/5.

American Film Institute

The American Film Institute picks the movies it likes, not the movies that will win Oscars. In the last five years, only two of the ten films the group listed picked up Oscars for Best Picture. Last year, of the ten films it mentioned, nine made the Best Picture roster. The one film that sneaked in that wasn’t on the AFI list was eventual Best Picture winner The King’s Speech. So, take this group’s list with a large grain of salt. Eight have strong chances, but Bridesmaids and J. Edgar are unlikely to figure at all.

New York Online Critics

The second group to pick Melissa McCarthy also gives a nudge to previously unsupported Best Actor contender Michael Shannon. The rest of the list is fairly inconsequential in terms of variety from other groups, though this is so far the only time The Adventures of Tintin has won a prize for Animated Feature over Rango. This group has a solid track record with the Academy earning Picture, Animated Feature, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography and Documentary Feature winners places on Oscar’s roster. Once again Cave of Forgotten Dreams becomes a documentary spoiler, but the rest of this group’s winners in the aforementioned categories are very likely nominees. As for winners, they are suitably accurate, but not as accurate as some others. Tintin, Micheal Shannon, Albert Brooks and Melissa McCarthy each hope this group will pick up a fifth in six years of awards, but neither Shannon nor McCarthy are very likely at this point.

Detroit Critics Nominations

Detroit hasn’t got much of a history to point our direction, but their nominations are about 3/5 accurate most years. I wouldn’t put too much stock in what the group has nominated and wait until their awards to get a better idea of what’s going on.

Houston Critics Nominations

Another short lived group, their accuracy is a lot better than most, especially in Best Picture. Last year, nine of the ten Houston nominees picked up Oscar nominations while 7 of the prior year’s selections did. But, it’s the screenplay winners we should look at. Only one of the last twenty nominees didn’t earn an Oscar nomination. That gives 50/50, The Artist, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris and Win Win something to look forward to and at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if all five picked up Oscar nominations this year. Of course, with ten Oscar nominations across two categories to fit them, the achievement is slightly less impressive.

San Francisco Critics

This late announcing group gives a boost to Gary Oldman whose performance in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy has been largely ignored by critics groups. The film also picked up some much needed support in Adapted Screenplay. And looking at the rest of the winners, there is a lot of interesting variance a lot of other groups didn’t have earning Tilda Swinton and Vaness Regrave attention, but also picking up mainstays Albert Brooks and The Tree of Life in Cinematography. The abysmal track record this group has with picking winners may help point us towards candidates who won’t win rather than who will win. They have no categories in which they’ve successfully predicted more than 2 of the last five winners. Securing nominations, on the other hand, is definitely more in their wheelhouse. Director (which saw six winners in the last five years all pick up nominations), Actor and Supporting Actress are each five for five and other categories are four for five.