We had one film release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

War for the Planet of the Apes

In 2011, the first film in the series, Rise of the Planet of the Apes brought an Oscar nomination for Best Visual Effects. Many thought it would win, but it went home empty-handed. Three years later, the second film did the same. It picked up a Best Visual Effects nomination and then won nothing. Sadly, that is where the third film is headed.

One of the most praised elements of the series has been its use of motion capture technology to film real actors performing as these simian characters and then turning them into chimpanzees, gorillas, orangutans, and other apes. While the technology has no doubt improved, the Academy’s willful ignorance of it has not. The Lord of the Rings series set the medium on its current path and since then, it has blossomed enormously. Yet, the Academy hasn’t been very forthcoming with nominations.

What might have helped the second film isn’t likely to help War for the Planet of the Apes. In 2002, Spider-Man went up against the juggernaut of The Lord of the Rings, and understandably went home without a win. Two years later, without competition, the sequel won the Oscar. Similarly, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl was nominated against the final film in the Lord of the Rings trilogy and subsequently lost. Three years later, the sequel Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest pulled out a win. Ostensibly both of those two winners were more effects heavy than their predecessors, but that should have helped Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes was nominated against Best Picture nominee Hugo, which pulled off a surprising upset win over Apes. Then, in 2014, Dawn had the unfortunate burden of competing against Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, a less favorably received film, but it ended up losing. That puts War for the Planet of the Apes in a bit of a bind. Third films in series rarely break molds and this year, War is not only up against Christopher Nolan again (Dunkirk), but also the beloved and frequently honored Star Wars franchise. It could still pull of a shock victory because it is the series’ final entry. That might not mean a lot to the Academy and they tend to prefer Best Picture nominees over non-nominees these days, so its chances aren’t great. However, the film could be the first in the series to pick up nods outside of Best Visual Effects. The sound mix and editing jobs were quite good this time around, so it could get nominated there as well.