We had two films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Frozen

Once upon a time, in a time long long ago, Walt Disney Pictures was the most dominant force in animation there ever was. Shortly after Mulan, the mouse house began to tumble in esteem with critics and audiences. A few years ago, the Academy and audiences started taking notice again and then with The Princess and the Frog, the critics came back on board. Since then, Disney has created a list of notable efforts to rival its 1990’s hey-day. While the film isn’t quite up to the caliber of films like Beauty and the Beast or The Hunchback of Notre Dame, or a large portion of the Pixar slate from the early 00’s, Frozen is likely to be the most successful film they’ve seen in a long time and the Academy may finally recognize it.

When The Little Mermaid and, more specifically, Beauty and the Beast became Oscar forces, Disney’s reputation soared to heights it hadn’t seen in more than 30 years. Critics noticed by ranking their films among the best of the year. The Academy noticed by making Beauty and the Beast the first animated film in history nominated for Best Picture. And audiences swarmed to discover the latest efforts. Without that surge in support for animation, other animation studios like Pixar, DreamWorks and Sony wouldn’t be where they are today.

With so many animation studios and films releasing each year, the Academy introduced a new category recognizing the year’s Best Animated Feature. Not since the category’s founding has the oldest and most respected animation studio in history won the award. Last year, it seemed certain that Wreck-It Ralph would finally bring home the gold, but the older members of the Academy didn’t seem to get the video game references and went with the more traditional Brave from Pixar for the award. Ironically, Brave was a Pixar-style princess film that Disney had made popular for so many years. This year, the Academy has returned to its roots with Frozen and could very well be in line for their first ever win in the category, but they have stiff competition from Hayao Miyazaki’s final work and while it’s certain some voters will avoid his The Wind Rises because he already has an Oscar, that won’t immediately throw the race to Frozen, but right now, I’m not certain Miyazaki can pull it off at this point. To the Academy, it may just be a case of “it’s time.”

The only other certainty is a nomination for Best Original Song. Disney is only pushing one of the tunes from the film for a nomination, “Let It Go”. Although that song isn’t the best in the production and turns way from the tradition of championing ballads at the Oscars, the empowering message of the song can be used to encourage a nomination, which is almost certain at this point, and like create a rallying point for a win.

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Early in the year, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom looked like one in a large raft of films Harvey Weinstein could walk to the Academy awards. Discussing an important subject, the life and rebellion of iconic South African Civil Rights leader Nelson Mandela, it seemed a safe bet for early prediction lists. Somewhere along the way, the film faded from the conversation.

As it faded, critics began picking it up and weren’t incredibly kind to the film. It received mixed-to-positive reviews, but that lack of support is a death knell for independent films like Mandela. Idris Elba and Naomie Harris could still be Oscar contenders for their performances, but it won’t be easy sailing. Harris could compete in the weak and undecided Best Supporting Actress category fairly easily, though it seems her performance may be more lead than support and there’s no way for her to enter the almost-locked Best Actress list.

Elba, on the other hand, could parlay his vast respect in the acting community to an Oscar nomination, though it will be a hard-fought battle. Although the Best Actor competition is bountiful, a lack of unified certitude could play into Harvey’s hands and he could use divided ballots to sneak Elba in. The problem is Harvey also has Fruitvale Station‘s Michael B. Jordan to consider and Fruitvale is the better reviewed film, although Mandela is the more recent. In the end, Harvey won’t likely nab nominations for either actor as a stronger case can be made for any one of 5 or 6 other actors at this juncture.