We had three films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

BPM (Beats Per Minute)

Once upon a time, there were two countries that utterly dominated the Academy’s Best Foreign Language Film competitions. France and Italy maintain two insurmountable records. Italy is currently the most honored nation in Oscar history, having won 14 prizes. France is the most nominated nation in history with 39. They, along with Japan are the only nations to enter films in every one of the 64 Oscar contests that have been conducted. While Italy’s 31 nominations are a far cry from France’s and unlikely to result in a swap, France is only two awards away from tying Italy for most honored. That number could be down to one if this year’s Oscar race has anything to say about it.

Beats Per Minute or BPM is France’s submission for the Academy Awards this year. Situated around the early-90s when the French ACT UP movement was in full swing, attempting to bring prominence, attention, and help to the gay community being ravaged by the AIDS crisis, the film has achieved critical acclaim. The film currently sits with a 98% Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes (based on 48 reviews, averaging to 7.5 out of 10). On MetaCritic, it sits at 84. Those are strong numbers. France hasn’t had much to compete with in recent years, but could finally dominate the Oscar race again. It further won four prizes at this past year’s Cannes Film Festival, which will give it plenty to crow about going into the year-end races.

There are myriad factors that could hamper its chances, especially if the Academy recognizes the sentimental claptrap it has in recent years (and even beyond), but with the right winds blowing (and support also for this year’s Call Me By Your Name), the 90th Academy Awards could be a very gay-friendly one indeed.

The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Seven years ago, a Greek filmmaker named Giorgos Lanthimos (or as credited with his Oscar nomination last year as “Yorgos Lanthimos”) burst onto the international indie scene with his lauded film Dogtooth. In the intervening years, he had intermittent success with the likes of Attenberg and Alps, but reached his pinnacle of celebration last year with his dystopian comedy The Lobster.

That film, about a futuristic society where non-coupled individuals are sent to a dating colony where they must find a new soulmate or be turned into animals. The utter craziness of the film landed Lanthimos and co-scribe Efthimis Filippou Oscar nominations for Best Original Screenplay along with several other awards. Although The Killing of the Sacred Deer doesn’t have quite the comparative reviews of The Lobster, it’s well reviewed enough to be in consideration for this year’s Best Original Screenplay category.

The film won the screenplay award at Cannes this year, which may help it out, but of the two screenwriting categories at this year’s Oscars, Original is the most competitive. That competition alone may hinder the film’s chances at the Oscars. Without support from critics giving it awards, which is unlikely considering the competition, it may be consigned to the forgotten bin of Oscar also-rans.

Wonderstruck

In a career that has spanned 22 years, director Todd Haynes has made six films. His first two films, Safe and Velvet Goldmine, while well received, didn’t bring him quite the level of attention his third film would in 2002.

Far From Heaven was a Sirkian drama starring Julianne Moore as a 1950s suburban housewife dealing with an absent husband and the unexpected attention of her late gardener’s son (Dennis Haysbert). Their interracial affair, while scandalous, is nothing compared to her husband’s exploration of the gay bar scene. Filled with brilliant performances, gorgeous locales, and a sense of time and place that wasn’t often seen in 2000s cinema, the film was a huge success with critics earning the film six critics awards for Best Picture, a staggering 18 awards for Moore, and another four for Quaid and two for Haysbert. The film was celebrated, but managed to snag a disappointing four nominations, including Moore in Best Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Cinematography. It went home empty-handed.

This was Haynes’ second brush with Oscar attention after his prior film, Velvet Goldmine scored a surprise Best Costume Design nomination. The fourth film he directed, I’m Not There, although well received, Cate Blanchett was the film’s only Oscar nomination in Best Supporting Actress. It took eight years for Haynes to get back behind the camera when he created another Sirkian masterpiece in 2015 with Carol.

This time bringing gay themes to the forefront of the story, Carol earned him rave reviews, though his film stumbled with critic recognition, nabbing only two Best Picture awards and four for Best Director, and a single award for Blanchett. Rooney Mara, who was unfairly sidelined to Best Supporting Actress, only managed four trophies. However, when the Oscars came knocking, Carol‘s impressive 18-nomination Best Picture streak was thought to mean it would make it into the Best Picture race. However, the Academy continues not to get Haynes’ films, or at least they don’t seem to be interested in them. The film picked up a meager 6 nominations and again went home empty-handed.

Haynes’ sixth film released at the Cannes Film Festival and then showed up at Telluride. The film’s reviews are solid, but not exceptional, meaning that not even critics will bolster the film’s Oscar chances. Still, with five out of six films getting nominated, even if in minor categories, the film should be competing for nominations in a handful. Although the film is a long shot contender in several categories, a few that it could show up in are: Adapted Screenplay – The category is incredibly limited this year, which could enable it to sneak in; Original Score – composer Carter Burwell was recognized for Haynes’ Carol, and Far From Heaven was also nominated in that category, which gives it an outside chance; Cinematography – Edward Lachman is a well liked cinematographer and this is one of the categories I’m penciling the film in for nomination thanks to its two-period, black-and-white and color photography; Production Design – two period settings should give the film a chance for its second nomination; Costume Design – I think it will barely miss out, but having two periods to create costumes for.

Beyond that, I don’t see much hope for the film.