I know it’s been awhile since the Awards Season Box Office period (September through December) was over, but I have just now gotten to my follow-up article. Now that this one’s done, I’ll begin thinking about the Spring one. Though, to keep it in line with the new summer box office set, I may break it up and do January in this month, then February next month and so forth and then do the same with Summer, etc., etc.

Here’s a week-by-week breakdown of all the films I cataloged in my Awards Season Box Office article along with my thoughts on the film’s box office performance. If you need a reminder of what I said then, you can find that here: Part 1: 2010 Fall Preview and Part 2: 2010 Fall Preview.

SEPTEMBER 3-5, 2010

THE AMERICAN

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: I guess I shouldn’t be surprised with the low box office take that this film didn’t perform better. However, it really should have figured in. This was one of Clooney’s best performances to date and the film is a nice send-up of what action films would be if they were slowed down to a more believable pace.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Results: $35.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Even though it’s box office wasn’t good in general, it was pretty strong for an indie flick. And that it managed to be the top grossing film released during this specific weekend says more about the awful competition than it does this film’s lack of box office prowess.

GOING THE DISTANCE

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Results: $17.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Can it be any surprise that this film was a flop? Romcoms just don’t have the box office chutzpah they used to. That this film boasted only one major recognizable name (Drew Barrymore) suggests it was doomed from the start.

MACHETE

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Results: $26.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This is the film that should have performed a lot better than it did. It may be a niche film, but it was attempting to come across as a super cool flick that people should check out. It just goes to show that when you spin-off a fake trailer from a not-all-that-popular film, you shoudln’t expect to do much better than the original.

THE TILLMAN STORY

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: As expected, the film pulled off a Documentary Feature nomination. it didn’t go anywhere else, but I didn’t expect it to.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Results: $0.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] With all the football fans in America who heard a great deal about this event on the news, I’m shocked this film did so poorly. It just goes to show that documentaries are better served finding an audience on repeat viewings on television than on the big screen.

SEPTEMBER10-12, 2010

I’M STILL HERE

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: I didn’t expect the Academy to take this performance piece seriously and was proven right. And, like I had said when Joaquin Phoenix started acting erratically that it was all a put-on and was merely performance art, I turned out to be right.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Results: $0.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Despite the countless amounts of free press and notoriety this documentary received, I’m surprised it didn’t do better with audiences. But considering how long it was between the Letterman appearance and release, most people probably forgot all about it.

RESIDENT EVIL: AFTERLIFE

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Results: $60.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Proving there is still life in a number of unexceptional franchises, Resident Evil out performs my expectations and posts a solid final tally.

THE VIRGINITY HIT

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Results: $0.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Faux documentaries just aren’t as appealing to the movie-going public as studios seem to think they are. One proven success means all others will succeed. And while I thought this one had a decent shot of doing well, it’s ultimate failure will hopefully stunt the growth of this particular style.

SEPTEMBER 17-19, 2010

DEVIL

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Results: $33.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For a film with such a terrific trailer, these numbers are clearly disappointing. Horror seems to be foundering lately as the glut of new pictures in the theaters have left a lot of people disappointed.

EASY A

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: Oscar didn’t fall in love with this one, but could easily have done so. I wasn’t sure that an Original Screenplay nomination was a shot, but it did perform well with critics, which suggests it just wasn’t big enough to remind Academy members of its existence.
Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Results: $58.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Even though it didn’t perform to my prediction, it had a nice, robust box office total.

JACK GOES BOATING

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: What could have been a stellar run for actor-turned-director Phillip Seymour Hoffman ended up without major critic support and nothing but the measly box office it pulled in.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Results: $0.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Even on the indie circuit, a total less than half a million is disappointing. And the potential was there, but the audience wasn’t.

NEVER LET ME GO

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: Had it performed better at the box office and critics embraced it, it certainly could have been a top tier Oscar contender and probably should have been.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Results: $2.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] A disappointing total consider the promise the film possessed. Apparently, fans of the novel just didn’t want to make their way to a film they feared would disappoint them.

THE TOWN

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: Not a single Oscar nomination is a bit surprising considering how much this film was a hit and how many critics declared Ben Affleck a consistently surprising director.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Results: $92.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] Showcasing how a solid story and solid direction can turn a modest film into a major hit, this is the kind of box office

studios love.

SEPTEMBER 24-26, 2010

BURIED

Oscar Prospects: Unlikely
Oscar Results: It was a remote possibility that Ryan Reynolds could be considered for a nomination along with his film. A pipe dream, really.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Results: $1.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Despite having a unique premise and some truly frightening elements, this film managed to make barely a blip at the box office, but being an indie flick with minimal promotion, I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised.

HOWL

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: After reviews came out for this film, it was clear that it wasn’t going to be much of a contender.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Results: $0.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Another failure for the indie market with a sub-million result. It was certainly not the strength of performance I expected.

LEGEND OF THE GUARDIANS: THE OWLS OF GA’HOOLE

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: It’s only chance was in Animated Feature, but with too few eligible films, the three-slot field eliminated it from serious competition.
Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Results: $55.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] I would have expected something like this to soar with audiences, but it did more minimal business than most computer animated features have been doing these days.

WAITING FOR SUPERMAN

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: I initially felt this wouldn’t be an Academy friendly doc, but after critics heaped praise on it, I expected it could make a showing, but in the end, it failed to make the grade.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Results: Not Available
Thoughts: [Minor Success] There are no records for how this film performed at the box office, suggesting it made too little money to even be tracked, which may have aided the film’s decline with Oscar voters.

WALL STREET: MONEY NEVER SLEEPS

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: The early buzz died almost as quickly as it arrived. I never saw the possibilities mentioned for Michael Douglas to reprise his Oscar nomination as coming to fruition, a theory that proved out to be fact.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Results: $52.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The first film was minor hit and has grown in many estimations since, but the sequel made slightly more if you don’t adjust for inflation, but with inflation included, it wasn’t even close.

YOU AGAIN

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Results: $25.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Female comedy powerhouses Betty White, Jamie Lee Curtis and Sigourney Weaver couldn’t turn this audience-targeted film into a hit.

YOU WILL MEET A TALL DARK STRANGER

Oscar Prospects: Unlikely
Oscar Results: Woody Allen continues his streak of being ignored by the Academy. And the box office numbers proved out this theory. Unless he makes more than $15 million, don’t expect his films to register with the Academy.
Box Office Prediction: $7 M
Box Office Results: $3.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Weaker than I expected, Allen’s latest film just didn’t seem to register with audiences. Woody’s never been a huge box office draw, so the numbers aren’t that uninspired.

OCTOBER 1-3, 2010

CASE 39

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Results: $13.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Horror’s prospects at the box office continue to come down on the side of failure.

HATCHET II

Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Results: $0.05 M
Thoughts: [Flop] What producers expected when sequelizing a film that was a box office failure to begin with I don’t understand, but not only was this film a colossal failure, it’s one of a handful of films that made less than $100,000 at the box office…that’s not very impressive.

LET ME IN

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Results: $12.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It may have outperformed the foreign language original, but a $12 M opening is a horrible outcome.

THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: While it was the frontrunner at the time of my original article, the film still pulled a number of Oscar nominations, but it wasn’t nearly the juggernaut we expected.
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Results: $96.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] I was nearly spot-on with this film. It appealed to a large portion of audiences, but not so much as to hit every one of the people who use Facebook. They probably waited until DVD.

OCTOBER 8-10, 2010

I SPIT ON YOUR GRAVE

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Results: $0.09 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Another horror flop, this one quite majorly. Proof that not just any remake will do for finicky fans.

INSIDE JOB

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: As expected, this scathing documentary about the collapse of the U.S. economy won the Academy Award for Best Documentary. It was the right kind of left-leaning documentary for the Academy. And when you expose corruption, it’s even more likely you’ll find yourself in the winner’s circle.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Results: $4.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Right on target with this one that prove that documentaries can ride controversial subject matters to solid performance within the genre.

LIFE AS WE KNOW IT

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Results: $53.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Romcoms aren’t always big hits, but when one like this manages to eke out a solid total, it gives producers license to produce more ill-fitting products.

MY SOUL TO TAKE

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Results: $14.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] A bigger success than a lot of recent horror films, even horror master Wes Craven can’t bring people to the box office.

NOWHERE BOY

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: It should have done well with the Academy, but a mediocre box office score and little support from critics doomed this film before it even got going. Perhaps releasing around the time of its U.K. release might have given it a boost.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Results: $1.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Beatles fans should have been an easy sell for this film, but the marketing was poorly conceived and it ended up with a terrible final tally as a result.

SECRETARIAT

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: It had been looking like a Seabiscuit kind of movie. Top-line cast, pleasing aethestics and a Disney push. What happened? It’s hard to know for sure, but the box office failure may have been the contributing factor.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Results: $59.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It should have been a big hit. A feel good movie about horse racing and women’s rights. Yet, it tanked. I guess critics were right about the film and audiences agreed.

STONE

Oscar Prospects: Unlikely
Oscar Results: It had some excellent stars in it (Robert De Niro, Edward Norton), but in the end, the movie failed to ignite audience expectations and critics weren’t very enthused about it.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Results: $1.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] With that kind of cast, you expect bigger things, but such a small return is a dire result.

OCTOBER 15-17, 2010

CONVICTION

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: Hilary Swank’s purported Oscar rivalry with Annette Bening didn’t come to fruition as the film bombed at the box office and critics turned up their noses at the film.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Results: $6.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] While I didn’t expect a lot, this could have been a surprise hit with audiences, but the trailer didn’t paint a very pleasing picture and audiences didn’t respond.

JACKASS 3D

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Results: $117.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] It was a huge success, which unfortunately means there will be more (after its first weekend, the fourth installment was already put into the works).

RED

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Results: $90.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] I expected a bit of nice genre performance for this little film, but audiences responded in a big way making this the surprise hit of the fall. So surprising in fact that a sequel is in pre-production.

OCTOBER 22-24, 2010

THE COMPANY MEN

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: It should have been big with the Academy. It had an Up in the Air vibe about it, but the film was pushed into 2011 resulting in its ineligibility for last year’s Oscars. Test audiences probably didn’t react the way they expected.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Results: $4.4 M (Released in January)
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Some decent names and an audience-friendly premise (though perhaps one that hit too close to home), it made ok money on the indie circuit but nowhere else.

HEREAFTER

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: The film could have been a contender, but critics weren’t as impressed with the film as Clint’s other outings, resulting in a minor nomination for Visual Effects.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Results: $32.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Matt Damon. Clint Eastwood. It should have been popular. It wasn’t. The resultant aftermath was not pretty.

SAW 3D

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Results: $45.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The final chapter in the Saw series went out as expected, on the low-end of expectations. The box office numbers showed signs of audience erosion and that 3D prices and the actual effects weren’t a big enough selling point to close it out.

OCTOBER 29-31, 2010

MONSTERS

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Results: $0.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It was an indie horror film about a monster invasion in a semi-futuristic alternate reality. Critics liked it, but audiences didn’t get to see it…or didn’t want to.

PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Results: $84.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Sequels to popular horror films often disappoint audiences, but this one managed to hit a home run, but we all know what that means. Paranormal Activity 3.

WELCOME TO THE RILEYS

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: The cast could have been contenders, but the film didn’t receive much positive attention from critics and on the indie circuit, that’s a must.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Results: $0.16 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Less than $200,000 at the box office is terrible result, especially for an indie film with recognizable leads.

NOVEMBER 5-7, 2010

DUE DATE

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Results: $100.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It should have been bigger considering Robert Downey Jr’s popularity, but the film barely crossed the $100 million mark.

FAIR GAME

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: A controversial subject matter about journalistic freedom? This should have been a slam dunk for Oscar voters. But the Iraq War continued to prove poisonous at the Oscars leaving another leftist flick in the dust.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Results: $9.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Nearly every Iraq War film in the last several years has failed to catch on with audiences. The public is a bit tired of it all. These films should take a lesson from the Vietnam War. Most of the best and most popular films didn’t hit until after the war was fully over.

FOR COLORED GIRLS

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Results: $37.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Tyler Perry’s usual ability to pull in audiences didn’t seem to work for his adaptation of the award-winning play For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide When the Rainbow Was Enuf, which featured a large cast of very prominent black actresses. Why didn’t audiencse bite? Could it be that Perry foregoing putting his name before the title prevented his typical fans from recognizing his work? It’s the only excuse I can come up with, because quality of product has never disuaded his fans from showing up before.

MEGAMIND

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: When the Academy revealed that there were only going to be 3 nominees this year, Megamind‘s chances sank like a rock.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Results: $148.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] Even though it later failed with the Oscars, the film still pulled out a solid, expected box office tally.

127 HOURS

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: In spite of its lack of box office success, the film almost didn’t make the Oscar lists, but pulled out several key nominations in the end.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Results: $18.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Almost what I expected, the film underperformed in many important markets, giving it a rather unimpressive tally.

NOVEMBER 12-14, 2010

MORNING GLORY

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: We may never have another Broadcast News again, but it didn’t help the film that audiences didn’t seem to make it out to watch the film.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Results: $31.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A disappointing result for a cast that includes Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton. Comedy lightning doesn’t always strike twice.

SKYLINE

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Results: $21.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Alien invasion movies have proven popular in the past, but when critics come down hard against the film and audiences seem unimpressed, a meager total can occur.

UNSTOPPABLE

Oscar Prospects: Did not evaluate
Oscar Results: I had thought this was going to be a popcorn flick, so when I originally wrote my article, I didn’t include an Oscar Prospects note. And yet, one Oscar nomination it received for Sound Editing.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Results: $81.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] A much bigger hit than I had expected, the film seemed to pull key demos to the theater who enjoy action-packed films even if critic were lukewarm.

NOVEMBER 19-21, 2010

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 1

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: On the surface, the film’s two Oscar nominations would seem like a poor haul, but only the first film back in 2001 earned more nominations (3). Matter of fact, the second and fifth films didn’t earn a single nomination while only the third film also received two. So, moderate chances was an apt description.
Box Office Prediction: $300 M
Box Office Results: $295.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] I love being spot-on with predictions. We have not only six previous films as examples released in different times of the year. If I had been off by much, I would have been surprised.

THE NEXT THREE DAYS

Oscar Prospects: Unlikely
Oscar Results: Cast and creator pedigree didn’t help the film pick up Oscar moment. Its poor box office showing didn’t help.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Results: $21.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Russell Crowe should have been able to carry a thriller to a box office victory, but he couldn’t. And this after the mild failure of Robin Hood and his pull may have weakened.

NOVEMBER 26-28, 2010

BURLESQUE

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: The weakness of the films chances reared itself in its utter lack of mention in the Original Song category. Although I had thought its design elements might have figured in a couple of other categories, its presence in the Golden Globe nominations (and win) should have carried over to the Oscars, but didn’t.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Results: $39.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] This was not nearly as popular as I expected. Pairing popular Cher and Christina Aguilera wasn’t enough to bring people to the theater who probably decided it was better to wait for DVD.

THE KING’S SPEECH

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: This was one of the major contenders back in July and August and managed to carry itself past potential also-ran territory to become the steamrolling frontrunner.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Results: $135.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] What likely had the most impact on Oscar voters was the film’s well-timed release and popularity with audiences. The film made far more money than I had expected for a costume drama.

LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: Back when the Academy announced a 10-wide field for Best Picture, I declared three individuals or companies that would have the biggest chance of benefiting from the decision. One of those was Edward Zwick. He had a promising premise and an attractive cast (Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway). Oscar talk began and then quickly died as people saw the film. Maybe more serious fare might do well for him in the future, but this wasn’t his time to benefit and might suggest the Academy won’t recognize him no matter how well he does.
Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Results: $32.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] With Gyllenhaal and Hathaway starring (and with great chemistry together in the film), this should have been a no-brainer for romantics. It’s disappointing numbers were…well…disappointing.

RED DAWN

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Results: N/A (Release Re-Scheduled to TBD)
Thoughts: [Unknown] I’m not sure why the film was pushed back, but moving from a sweet November berth to an unknown 2011 date suggests the film was polling poorly with test audiences and will likely be buried sometime in August at the last minute.

TANGLED

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: An Animated Feature nomination is quite an achievement in a three-nominee field, but the film didn’t manage to pick up any other nominations. And compare that to the less popular (with audiences) The Princess and the Frog‘s three nods and I’d have to say the showing is somewhat poor.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Results: $199.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] It didn’t quite double Princess/Frog‘s $104 million total, but this is a staggering figure and should prove once and for all that this and Princess/Frog have revitalized the Mouse House.

DECEMBER 3-5, 2010

BLACK SWAN

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: The challenging and disturbing subject matter should have made its performance at the Oscars minimal, but it managed a robust five with a win for Natalie Portman for Best Actress.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Results: $106.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] This should have been a minor indie hit, but turned into one of a small handful of surprise hits of the Oscar season, mostly from Oscar-nominated fare.

I LOVE YOU PHILLIP MORRIS

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Results: $2.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The film barely registered with audiences despite a lead performance by Jim Carrey. Either the subject matter turned too many of his fans off (not an unlikely event consider the type of people to like his films are predominantly blue collar) or Carrey just isn’t a box office draw anymore. I’m leaning towards the latter considering the dearth of success he’s had at the box office in the last few years.

MIRAL

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: The film was pushed into 2011, but considering the poor critical response, its chances are pretty much non-existent.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Results: N/A (Release re-scheduled to 3/25/11)
Thoughts: [Unknown] They moved it from a prime December, Oscar baiting position to a easy-to-forget March spot. There should be little doubt that it’s not going to perform that well overall.

THE TOURIST

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: It was being touted that the director of Oscar-winning foreign language pic The Lives of Others pairing with popular actors Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie in a spy thriller would be a potent combination come Oscar time. It was not.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Results: $67.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] I didn’t think the film would do well, but that was when I thought it would receive a platform release. The truth was it was sent wide in hopes of capitalizing on Depp and Jolie’s fame. So, I would still say it was a mediocre result based on those reasons.

THE WARRIOR’S WAY

Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Results: $5.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] On par for what most minor martial arts films do in the U.S., this result wasn’t unexpected.

DECEMBER 10-12, 2010

THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE VOYAGE OF THE DAWN TREADER

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: After the first film in the franchise picked up three nominations for 2005, subsequent efforts should have been strong contenders (like the Harry Potter series), but after the second film failed to register, it was clear the Academy wasn’t as enamored with the series as it at first appeared.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Results: $104.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The first film was a huge success. The second film, although released in the busier summer, made less than half the original’s total. This third film barely passing $100 million is not a good sign for the future of the expensive-to-make franchise.

THE FIGHTER

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: It had the recipe for Oscar success and pulled out a number of key nominations and became one of only three films with all the right nominations to possibly win Best Picture (Director, Editing, Writing and Acting). It didn’t, but it still performed very strongly with the Academy, including two very high profile Supporting category wins.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Results: $93.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] I wouldn’t call it the Rocky of its generation, but this was a very strong and exceptional performance.

THE TEMPEST

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: There was little chance that the film wouldn’t pick up at least one major Oscar nomination. Costume Design was the category. And Julie Taymor’s record continues. Of her four big screen directorial efforts, all of them received nominations in Best Costume Design. Matter of fact, any film she makes from this point forward should be considered an automatic ballot-placer (as long as it’s a semi-period film and possibly even if it’s not). (Side note: one of her two television movies that preceeded her film career even managed a costume design win at the Emmys)
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Results: $0.28 M
Thoughts: [Flop] While she’s a force to be reckoned with at the Oscar nominations for Costume Design, the box office is another matter. Of her four films, two made around $25 million. The other two, this film and Titus ($2 million), made quite a bit less.

DECEMBER 17-19, 2010

HOW DO YOU KNOW

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: James L. Brooks used to be a behemoth at the Oscars, but since the new century began, his efforts have underwhelmed Oscar voters with this being the latest example of his failure.
Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Results: $30.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not only has Brooks lost his touch with the Oscars, the box office isn’t being too kind to him either. Four relatively well known faces couldn’t sell this movie.

TRON: LEGACY

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: The one category I expected this film to get nominated in (Visual Effects) wasn’t the one it ended up nominated in (Sound Editing) even with five slots available.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Results: $172.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it didn’t hit the mark I expected, its ultimate total was still a remarkable one considering how long it’s been since the original hti the big screen. Of course, if you factor in 3D prices, the number’s slightly less impressive.

YOGI BEAR

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: The one chance the film had was being eligible for Animated Feature, but that was a long shot considering the Academy’s general dislike of animation/live-action blends. So, no nomination is no surprise.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Results: $100.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] There’s really no accounting for tastes. Despite a general drubbing by critics, the film topped $100 million just barely. The problem is, considering the success of recent blend Alvin and the Chipmunks, the number my still be seen as a bit of a disappointment.

DECEMBER 24-26, 2010

COUNTRY STRONG

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: It should have been called Country Weak when it came to the Oscars. The film was trying to find a vibe that would not only put it high on country music fans’ lists of films to see, but also translate into nominations for at least Gwyneth Paltrow and also one or more of its songs. In the end, it managed only to walk away with an Original Song nomination and nothing else. Crazy Heart this film was not.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Results: $20.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It exceeded my expectations, but this should have been a higher wattage hit had it succeeded at drawing in country music fans. Perhaps they balked at Paltrow starring as a country music singer or the studio didn’t flog it enough in the right circles. A promotion at Arby’s does not qualify for wide notability.

GULLIVER’S TRAVELS

Oscar Prospects: Weak
Oscar Results: The effects were it’s strongest chance, but movies that aren’t terribly popular with critics and are less so with audiences tend to be ignored by the Academy, especially with rote effects that have not moved forward with the advancements of modern technique.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Results: $42.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] This should have been huge. It was a Jack Black comedy poised in the holiday rush period where such titles often flourish. Why it failed is likely due to overall quality and proves that sometimes audiences turn their noses up at the right time.

THE ILLUSIONIST

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: Sylvain Chomet will now be considered a strong contender for an Animated Feature nomination every time a film of his is released. In a three-slot field, this film earned a spot and that shows this branch loves the style.
Box Office Prediction: $8 M
Box Office Results: $2.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The Academy may have given it a thumbs up, but audiences did not. A foreign language animated feature doesn’t really have strong footing with most audiences, forcing it to compete with indie fare, which seemed to mostly eclipse the film.

LITTLE FOCKERS

Box Office Prediction: $240 M
Box Office Results: $148.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Another film that should have been bigger than it was. The flagging franchise seems to have found its limit as the third installment failed to electrify the box office. It failed to meet my expectations and although nearly $150 million is a solid result, the track record of the previous films should have meant higher earnings.

SOMEWHERE

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: Sofia Coppola may well be a one-hit wonder with the Oscars. Each new effort after Lost in Translation will be compared and unless they exceed expectations, they aren’t going to be recognized by the Academy even though Elle Fanning easily deserved a nomination.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Results: $1.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Coppola’s films haven’t been that hefty at the box office, but this result is a slap in the face for the daughter of a 1970’s filmmaking titan.

TRUE GRIT

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: Despite having been ignored by the Academy until 1996 and subsequently until 2007, the Coens have now become something of an auto-fit. Like A Serious Man last year, I fully expected a token nomination in both Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay. However, the box office prowess mixed with the strong reviews led the Academy to elect the film as one of its populist nominees and gave it a robust 10 total nods. Strong was indeed an apt description. That it didn’t take home any is immaterial.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Results: $170.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] And one more big year-end Oscar contender that nailed the box office taking in an exceptional $170 million. This is unquestionably the Coens’ best performance and, since they already have Oscars now, they are free to make even more crowd pleasing films.

DECEMBER 31, 2010-JANUARY 2, 2011

ANOTHER YEAR

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: Mike Leigh is another one of those directors who nearly always earns nominations right out of the gate. This was yet another feather in his cap picking up an Original Screenplay nomination. You can almost always count on his films being considered somewhere by Oscar.
Box Office Prediction: $4 M
Box Office Results: $3.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] A little under expectations, this isn’t the type of film to do gangbusters with audiences. It’s a niche film targeted towards a niche audience, so this result is actually quite good.

BLUE VALENTINE

Oscar Prospects: Strong
Oscar Results: While both of its leads were strong contenders for nominations, in the end only Michelle Williams was recognized. Still, for a film that performed so minimally at the box office to get recognized is an achievement.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Results: $9.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It may not have been a blockbuster, but for indies releasing at the end of the year, this is a pretty solid result.

THE DEBT

Oscar Prospects: Moderate
Oscar Results: It was pushed into the dumping grounds of 2011, August. Whether it can build the momentum I would have expected last year remains to be seen, but it all depends on how it’s received by critics.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Results: N/A (re-scheduled to 8/31/11)
Thoughts: [Unknown] The film was re-scheduled to the end of August, so we won’t nkow how it performs until then, though it might do a little better in that slot.