Looking at Film from Every Angle

98th Academy Awards (2025): Winner Predictions

REVISED: March 11, 2026

With the Oscars this weekend, I’m updating for my final predictions. My commentary will appear later in my final thoughts article.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

AWARDS
One Battle After Another Sinners Frankenstein KPop Demon Hunters Sentimental Value Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud Avatar: Fire and Ash F1 Hamnet Jane Austen’s Period Drama The Girl Who Cried Pearls The Perfect Neighbor Weapons	5 4 3 2 – 1 – – – – – – –

Best Picture

One Battle After Another – Warner Bros. (dir. Paul Thomas Anderson) (o-10/19) — Toss Up —
Sinners – Warner Bros. (dir. Ryan Coogler) — Toss Up —
Hamnet – Focus Features (dir. Chloé Zhao) — Spoiler —
Sentimental Value – Neon (dir. Joachim Trier) — Doubtful —
Marty Supreme – A24 (dir. Josh Safdie) — Doubtful —
The Secret Agent – Neon (dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho) — Doubtful —
Frankenstein – Netflix (dir. Guillermo del Toro) — Long Shot —
Bugonia – Focus (dir. Yorgos Lanthimos) — Long Shot —
Train Dreams – Netflix (dir. Clint Bentley) — Long Shot —
F1 – TBD — Long Shot —

Best Animated Feature

KPop Demon Hunters – Netflix (o-2/8) — Guarantee —
Zootopia 2 – Disney — Spoiler —
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – GKIDS — Doubtful —
Elio – Pixar — Doubtful —
Arco – Neon — Doubtful —

Best Directing

One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson (o-10/19) — Certain —
Sinners – Ryan Coogler — Spoiler —
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao — Doubtful —
Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier — Long Shot —
Marty Supreme – Josh Safdie — Long Shot —

Best Actor

Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (o-3/1) — Toss Up —
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme — Toss Up —
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent — Spoiler —
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon — Spoiler —
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another — Spoiler —

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (o-1/20) — Certain —
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You — Spoiler —
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue — Doubtful —
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value — Doubtful —
Emma Stone – Bugonia — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actor

Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (o-2/8) — Toss Up —
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another — Toss Up —
Delroy Lindo – Sinners — Toss Up —
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein — Toss Up —
Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another — Toss Up —

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan – Weapons (o-3/1) — Toss Up —
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another — Toss Up —
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners — Spoiler —
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value — Doubtful —
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

Sinners – Ryan Coogler (o-12/14) — Guarantee —
Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier, Skil Vogt — Spoiler —
Marty Supreme – Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein — Spoiler —
It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi — Spoiler —
Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson (o-4/17) — Guarantee —
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao — Spoiler —
Bugonia – Will Tracy — Doubtful —
Train Dreams – Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar — Doubtful —
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro — Doubtful —

Best Casting

Sinners – Francine Maisler (o-1/20) — Likely —
One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis — Spoiler —
Hamnet – Nina Gold — Spoiler —
Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti — Long Shot —
The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

Golden – KPop Demon Hunters (o-2/8) — Likely —
I Lied to You – Sinners — Spoiler —
Train Dreams – Train Dreams — Spoiler —
Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless — Doubtful —
Sweet Dreams of Joy – Viva Verdi! — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

Sinners – Ludwig Göransson (o-1/20) — Guarantee —
One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood — Spoiler —
Hamnet – Max Richter — Spoiler —
Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat — Spoiler —
Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix — Long Shot —

Best Film Editing

One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen (o-12/14) — Toss Up —
F1 – Stephen Mirrione — Toss Up —
Sinners – Michael P. Shawver — Toss Up —
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie — Doubtful —
Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté — Long Shot —

Best Cinematography

One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman (o-3/8) — Toss Up —
Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw — Toss Up —
Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso — Spoiler —
Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen — Doubtful —
Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji — Long Shot —

Best Production Design

Frankenstein – Tamara Deverell; Shane Vieau (o-4/17) — Certain —
Hamnet – Fiona Crombie; Alice Felton — Spoiler —
Sinners – Hannah Beachler; Monique Champagne — Spoiler —
Marty Supreme – Jack Fisk; Adam Willis — Doubtful —
One Battle After Another – Florencia Martin; Anthony Carlino — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein – Kate Hawley (o-4/17) — Certain —
Sinners – Ruth E. Carter — Spoiler —
Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska — Spoiler —
Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi — Doubtful —
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott — Long Shot —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Frankenstein (o-4/17) — Likely —
Sinners — Spoiler —
Kokuho — Spoiler —
The Ugly Stepsister — Spoiler —
The Smashing Machine — Doubtful —

Best Sound

F1 (o-1/22) — Likely —
Sinners — Spoiler —
Frankenstein — Spoiler —
Sirât — Spoiler —
One Battle After Another — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash (o-12/14) — Guarantee —
The Lost Bus — Spoiler —
Sinners — Spoiler —
Jurassic World Rebirth — Doubtful —
F1 — Doubtful —

Best International Feature Film

Sentimental Value – Norway (o-12/16) — Likely —
The Secret Agent – Brazil — Spoiler —
It Was Just an Accident – France — Spoiler —
The Voice of Hind Rajab – Tunisia — Spoiler —
Sirât – Spain — Spoiler —

Best Documentary Feature

The Perfect Neighbor (o-12/16) — Toss Up —
The Alabama Solution — Toss Up —
Come See Me in the Good Light — Toss Up —
Cutting through Rocks — Toss Up —
Mr. Nobody against Putin — Toss Up —

Best Documentary Short Subject

Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (o-3/9) — Toss Up —
All the Empty Rooms — Toss Up —
Children No More: Were and Are Gone — Toss Up —
The Devil Is Busy — Toss Up —
Perfectly a Strangeness — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

The Girl Who Cried Pearls (o-1/22) — Toss Up —
Butterfly — Toss Up —
Forevergreen — Toss Up —
Retirement Plan — Toss Up —
The Three Sisters — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

Jane Austen’s Period Drama (o-12/16) — Toss Up —
Butcher’s Stain — Toss Up —
A Friend of Dorothy — Toss Up —
The Singers — Toss Up —
Two People Exchanging Saliva — Toss Up —

NEW: January 22, 2026

Only one of my previously predicted winners didn’t make the cut but I also changed my prediction for Sound. These are very preliminary so I expect a few will change before the Oscars.