UPDATED: OCTOBER 15, 2026
Many of the final entries into this Oscar race have been seen and several races have shifted towards new contenders. I’ve made quite a few changes, though they feel minor compared to the monumental swaps I made last month. Next up, we have the various critics groups who will be announcing in the next two months. The competition may yet change further.
Key
Contender 3/29
Nominee Prediction 3/29
Winner Prediction 3/29
NOMINATIONS | |
AWARDS |
||
|
The Odyssey La Bola Negra Dune: Part Three Wild Horse Nine Fjord Fatherland Project Hail Mary Being Heumann All of a Sudden Digger Disclosure Day I Play Rocky Wildwood |
13 10 8 – 7 5 – 4 3 – – – – |
The Odyssey Wild Horse Nine Disclosure Day Digger Ebenezer Fatherland The Social Reckoning Wildwood |
7 3 2 1 – – – – |
Best Picture
All of a Sudden – Neon (dir. Ryūsuke Hamaguchi) 10/11 10/11
Being Heumann – Apple TV+ (dir. Sian Heder) 9/20 9/20
La Bola Negra – Netflix (dir. Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo) 9/20 9/20
Dune: Part Three – Warner Bros. (dir. Denis Villeneuve) 3/29 4/14
Fatherland – MUBI (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski) 3/29 10/11
Fjord – Neon (dir. Cristian Mungiu) 6/17 6/17
I Play Rocky – Amazon MGM (dir. Peter Farrelly) 3/29 9/20
The Odyssey – Universal (dir. Christopher Nolan) 3/29 4/14 4/14
Project Hail Mary – Amazon MGM (dir. Phil Lord, Christopher Miller) 3/29 4/14
Wild Horse Nine – Searchlight (dir. Martin McDonagh) 3/29 4/14
Animals – Netflix (dir. Ben Affleck) 8/16
Artificial – Neon (dir. Luca Guadagnino) 10/12
Behemoth! – Searchlight (dir. Tony Gilroy) 3/29
Clarissa – Neon (dir. Arie Esiri, Chuko Esiri) 3/29
Club Kid – A24 (dir. Jordan Firstman) 10/11
The Debut – A24 (dir. Jesse Eisenberg) 7/20
Digger – Warner Bros. (dir. Alejandro G. Iñárritu) 3/29
Disclosure Day – Universal (dir. Steven Spielberg) 3/29
Elsinore – Focus (dir. Simon Stone) 10/11
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth – Netflix (dir. David Fincher) 3/29
Ink – Netflix (dir. Danny Boyle) 3/29
Klara and the Sun – Sony (dir. Taika Waititi) 3/29
Misty Green – A24 (dir. Chris Rock) 9/20
Obsession – Focus Features (dir. Curry Barker) 10/11
Sense and Sensibility – Focus (dir. Georgia Oakley) 3/29
The Social Reckoning – Sony (dir. Aaron Sorkin) 3/29
Tender Loving Care – Bleecker Street (dir. Mike Leigh) 10/11
Tuner – Black Bear (dir. Daniel Roher) 3/29
The Uprising – Focus Features (dir. Paul Greengrass) 7/26
Best Animated Feature
Hoppers – Pixar 3/29 4/14
Ray Gunn – Netflix 10/11 10/11
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom – Aardman 3/29 4/14
Toy Story 5 – Pixar 3/29 4/14
Wildwood – Laika 3/29 4/14 9/20
Animal Farm – Angel 3/29
Coyote vs. Acme – Warner Bros. 3/29
Dr. Seuss’ The Cat in the Hat – Warner Bros. 3/29
Forgotten Island – DreamWorks 10/11
Hexed – Disney 3/29
Tangles – Sapan 10/11
Best Directing
All of a Sudden – Ryūsuke Hamaguchi 10/11 10/11
La Bola Negra – Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo 9/20 9/20
Fjord – Cristian Mungiu 6/17 6/17
The Odyssey – Christopher Nolan 3/29 4/14 4/14
Wild Horse Nine – Martin McDonagh 3/29 4/14
Animals – Ben Affleck 8/16
Artificial – Luca Guadagnino 10/12
Behemoth! – Tony Gilroy 3/29
Being Heumann – Sian Heder 9/20
Clarissa – Arie Esiri, Chuko Esiri 3/29
Club Kid – Jordan Firstman 10/11
The Debut – Jesse Eisenberg 7/20
Digger – Alejandro G. Iñárritu 3/29
Disclosure Day – Steven Spielberg 3/29
Dune: Part Three – Denis Villeneuve 3/29
Elsinore – Simon Stone 10/11
Fatherland – Pawel Pawlikowski 3/29
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth – David Fincher 3/29
I Play Rocky – Peter Farrelly 3/29
Ink – Danny Boyle 3/29
The Invite – Olivia Wilde 7/20
Klara and the Sun – Taika Waititi 3/29
Misty Green – Chris Rock 9/20
Obsession – Curry Barker 10/11
Project Hail Mary – Phil Lord, Christopher Miller 3/29
Sense and Sensibility – Georgia Oakley 3/29
The Social Reckoning – Aaron Sorkin 3/29
Tender Loving Care – Mike Leigh 10/11
Tuner – Daniel Roher 3/29
Best Actor
Matt Damon – The Odyssey 3/29 6/17
Anthony Ippolito – I Play Rocky 3/29 9/20
John Malkovich – Wild Horse Nine 3/29 4/14 10/11
Andrew Scott – Elsinore 10/11 10/11
Sebastian Stan – Fjord 6/17 6/17
Ben Affleck – Animals 8/16
Robert Aramayo – I Swear 3/29
Timothée Chalamet – Dune: Part Three 3/29
Tom Cruise – Digger 3/29
Jordan Firstman – Club Kid 10/11
Andrew Garfield – Artificial 10/12
Ryan Gosling – Project Hail Mary 3/29
John Leguizamo – The Only Living Pickpocket in New York 10/11
Rami Malek – The Man I Love 7/20
Jack O’Connell – Ink 3/29
Josh O’Connor – Disclosure Day 3/29
David Oyelowo – Clarissa 3/29
Pedro Pescal – Behemoth! 3/29
Brad Pitt – The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth 3/29
Seth Rogen – The Invite 3/29
Jeremy Allen White – The Social Reckoning 3/29
Leo Woodall – Tuner 3/29
Best Actress
Rosalind Eleazar – Misty Green 9/20 9/20
Sandra Hüller – Fatherland 3/29 4/14
Ruth Madeley – Being Heumann 9/20 10/11
Julianne Moore – The Debut 7/20 9/20 9/20
Renate Reinsve – Fjord 6/17 6/17
Inde Navarrette – Obsession 10/11
Mathilde Arcel F. – Woman Unknown 9/20
Marion Bailey – Tender Loving Care 10/11
Emily Blunt – Disclosure Day 3/29
Olivia Colman – Wicker 8/9
Daisy Edgar-Jones – Sense and Sensibility 3/29
Virginie Efira – All of a Sudden 10/11
Cynthia Erivo – Prima Facie 3/29
Sandra Hüller – Rose 3/29
Angelina Jolie – Couture 5/24
Mikey Madison – The Social Reckoning 3/29
Sophie Okonedo – Clarissa 3/29
Kerry Washington – Animals 8/16
Olivia Wilde – The Invite 3/29
Best Supporting Actor
John Goodman – Digger 7/20 7/20 7/20
Guy Pearce – Ink 3/29 4/14
Sam Rockwell – Wild Horse Nine 3/29 9/20
Mark Ruffalo – Being Heumann 9/20 9/20
Jeremy Strong – The Social Reckoning 3/29 4/14
Reggie Absolom – Club Kid 10/11
Riz Ahmed – Digger 3/29
Will Arnett – Behemoth! 3/29
Yura Borisov – Artificial 10/12
Colin Firth – Disclosure Day 3/29
Paul Giamatti – The Debut 7/20
Dustin Hoffman – Tuner 3/29
Stephan James – I Play Rocky 3/29
Paul Jesson – Tender Loving Care 10/11
Edward Norton – The Invite 3/29
Alexander Skarsgård – Wicker 8/9
Steven Yeun – Animals 8/16
Best Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman – Elsinore 10/11 10/11
Penélope Cruz – La Bola Negra 9/20 9/20
Penélope Cruz – The Invite 3/29 10/11
Parker Posey – Wild Horse Nine 3/29 4/14 4/14
AnnaSophia Robb – I Play Rocky 3/29 10/18
Amy Adams – Klara and the Sun 3/29
Gillian Anderson – Animals 8/16
Caitriona Balfe – Sense and Sensibility 3/29
Emma D’Arcy – Digger 3/29
Ayo Edebiri – Clarissa 3/29
Claire Foy – Ink 3/29
Sandra Hüller – Project Hail Mary 3/29
Tao Okamoto – All of a Sudden 10/11
Jenna Ortega – Klara and the Sun 3/29
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada 2 3/29
Zendaya – Dune: Part Three 3/29
Best Original Screenplay
All of a Sudden – Ryūsuke Hamaguchi, Léa Le Dimna 10/11 10/11
The Debut – Jesse Eisenberg 7/20 7/20
Fatherland – Henk Handloegten, Pawel Pawlikowski 3/29 4/14
Fjord – Cristian Mungiu 6/17 6/17
Wild Horse Nine – Martin McDonagh 3/29 4/14 4/14
Animals – Connor O. McIntyre, Billy Ray, Ben Affleck 8/16
Artificial – Simon Rich 10/12
Behemoth! – Tony Gilroy 3/29
Club Kid – Jordan Firstman 10/11
Digger – Sabina Berman, Alexander Dinelaris, Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro G. Iñárritu 3/29
Disclosure Day – David Koepp, Steven Spielberg 3/29
I Play Rocky – Peter Gamble 3/29
Ink – James Graham 3/29
Misty Green – Chris Rock 9/20
Obsession – Curry Barker 10/11
Saturn Return – Clint Bentley, Gaelyn Golde, Greg Kwedar 6/17
Tender Loving Care – Mike Leigh 10/11
Tuner – Robert Ramsey, Daniel Roher 3/29
The Uprising – Paul Greengrass 7/26
Woman Unknown – May el-Toukhy, Karen Louise Käehne 9/20
Best Adapted Screenplay
Being Heumann – Sian Heder, Rebekah Taussig 9/20 9/20
La Bola Negra – Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo 9/20 9/20
The Odyssey – Christopher Nolan 3/29 4/14
Project Hail Mary – Drew Goddard 3/29 4/14
The Social Reckoning – Aaron Sorkin 3/29 4/14 4/14
Clarissa – Chuko Esiri 3/29
Dune: Part Three – Denis Villeneuve, Brian K. Vaughan 3/29
Elsinore – Stephen Beresford 10/11
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth – Quentin Tarantino 3/29
Klara and the Sun – Dahvi Waller 3/29
Sense and Sensibility – Diana Reid 3/29
Best Casting
La Bola Negra – Eva Leira, Yolanda Serrano 9/20 10/11
Digger – Francine Maisler 3/29 5/18
Fjord – Hannah Chocron Foldøy 6/17 9/20
The Odyssey – John Papsidera 3/29 4/14 4/14
Wild Horse Nine – Sarah Finn 3/29 4/14
All of a Sudden – Coralie Amedeo 10/11
Animals – Tamara=Lee Notcutt 8/16
Artificial – Jessica Ronane 10/12
Behemoth! – Carmen Cuba 3/29
Clarissa – Nina Gold 3/29
Disclosure Day – Cindy Tolan 3/29
Fatherland – Nina Haun 3/29
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth – Laray Mayfield 3/29
I Play Rocky – Rick Montgomery 3/29
Ink – Rebecca Farhall, Gail Stevens 3/29
Klara and the Sun – Francine Maisler 3/29
Project Hail Mary – Nicole Abellera, Jeanne McCarthy 3/29
Sense and Sensibility – Kharmel Cochrane 3/29
The Social Reckoning – Francine Maisler, Molly Rose 3/29
Tuner – Dylan Jury, Debra zane 3/29
Best Original Song
No predictions made yet.
Best Original Score
La Bola Negra – Raül Fernandez Miró 9/20 10/11
Disclosure Day – John Williams 3/29 4/14 4/14
Dune: Part Three – Hans Zimmer 3/29 4/14
The Odyssey – Ludwig Göransson 3/29 4/14
Wildwood – Dario Marianelli 3/29 9/20
All of a Sudden – Samuel Andreyev 10/11
Artificial – Damon Alobarn 10/12
Behemoth! – James Newton Howard, Brandon Roberts, Alan Silvestri 3/29
Clarissa – Kelsey Lu 3/29
Digger – Bryce Dessner 3/29
Fatherland – Marcin Masecki 3/29
Fjord – Kasper Kaae 6/17
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross 3/29
I Play Rocky – Dave Palmer 3/29
Ink – Daniel Pemberton 3/29
Klara and the Sun – Michael Giacchino 3/29
Project Hail Mary – Daniel Pemberton 3/29
Sense and Sensibility – Roger Goula 3/29
The Social Reckoning – Alexandre Desplat 3/29
Toy Story 5 – Randy Newman 3/29
Tuner – Will Bates 3/29
Wild Horse Nine – Carter Burwell 3/29
Best Film Editing
La Bola Negra – Alberto Gutiérrez 9/20 9/20
Fjord – Mircea Olteanu 6/17 6/17
I Play Rocky – Sam Seig 3/29 9/20
The Odyssey – Jennifer Lame 3/29 4/14 4/14
Wild Horse Nine – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen 3/29 10/11
All of a Sudden – Azusa Yamazaki 10/11
Animals – William Goldenberg, Christopher Rouse 8/16
Artificial – Marco Costa 10/12
Behemoth! – John Gilroy 3/29
Being Heumann – Geraud Brisson 9/20
Clarissa – Blair McClendon 3/29
The Debut – Robert Nassau 7/20
Digger – Stephen Mirrione, Conor O’Neill 3/29
Disclosure Day – Sarah Broshar 3/29
Dune: Part Three – Joe Walker 3/29
Fatherland – Piotr Wójcik 3/29
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth – Kirk Baxter 3/29
Ink – Fin Oates 3/29
Klara and the Sun – Tom Eagles, Adam Gough 3/29
Misty Green – Adam Dicterow 9/20
Project Hail Mary – Joel Negron 3/29
Sense and Sensibility – Izabella Curry 3/29
The Social Reckoning – Alan Baumgarten 3/29
Tuner – Greg O’Bryant 3/29
The Uprising – William Goldenberg 7/26
Best Cinematography
La Bola Negra – Gris Jordana 9/20 9/20
Digger – Emmanuel Lubezki 3/29 5/18
Dune: Part Three – Linus Sandgren 3/29 4/14
Fatherland – Lukasz Zal 3/29 4/14 6/17
The Odyssey – Hoyte van Hoytema 3/29 4/14
Behemoth! – Damián García 3/29
Clarissa – Jonathan Bloom 3/29
Disclosure Day – Janusz Kaminski 3/29
Fjord – Tudor Vladimir Panduru 6/17
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth – Erik Messerschmidt 3/29
I Play Rocky – Sean Porter 3/29
Ink – Alwin H. Küchler 3/29
Klara and the Sun – Mike Berlucchi 3/29
Project Hail Mary – Greig Fraser 3/29
The Social Reckoning – Jeff Cronenweth 3/29
Tuner – Lowell A. Meyer 3/29
Werwulf – Jarin Blaschke 10/11
Wild Horse Nine – Ben Davis 3/29
Best Production Design
La Bola Negra – Roger Bellés; Judit Ferrer 9/20 9/20
Dune: Part Three – Patrice Vermette; Shane Vieau 3/29 4/14
Fatherland – Marcel Slawinski, Katarzyna Sobanska; TBD 3/29 5/18
The Odyssey – Ruth De Jong; Larry Dias, Gene Serdena 3/29 4/14 4/14
Project Hail Mary – Charles Wood; John Bush 3/29 10/11
Clarissa – Hanrui Wang; TBD 3/29
Digger – Dennis Gassner; Anna Pinnock 3/29
Disclosure Day – Adam Stockhausen; Rena DeAngelo 3/29
Ebenezer – Eve Stewart; Michael Standish 3/29
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth – Donald Graham Burt; TBD 3/29
I Love Boosters – Christopher Glass; Lizbeth Ayala 3/29
Ink – Carson McColl, Gareth Pugh; Ben Barrington-Groves 3/29
Klara and the Sun – Ra Vincent; Kathryn Lim 3/29
Sense and Sensibility – Francesca Di Mottola; Celia De La Hey 3/29
The Uprising – Nikolaj Danielsen; Ágnes Szabó 7/26
Werwulf – Craig Lathrop; Anna Pinnock 10/11
Wicker – Renátó Cseh; Eszter Sebok 8/9
Wild Horse Nine – Denis Schnegg; Niamh Coulter 3/29
Wildwood – Nelson Lowry; TBD 10/11
Best Costume Design
La Bola Negra – Ana López Cobos 9/20 9/20
Dune: Part Three – Jacqueline West 3/29 4/14
Ebenezer – Catherine George 3/29 4/14
The Odyssey – Ellen Mirojnick 3/29 4/14 4/14
Sense and Sensibility – Grace Snell 3/29 10/11
Clarissa – Eniola Dawodu 3/29
Digger – Jacqueline West 3/29
Disclosure Day – Paul Tazewell 3/29
Fatherland – Ola Staszko 3/29
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth – Trish Summerville 3/29
I Love Boosters – Shirley Kurata 3/29
Ink – Carson McColl, Gareth Pugh 3/29
The Uprising – Tóth András Dániel, Godena-Juhász Attila 7/26
Werwulf – Linda Muir 10/11
Wicker – Tóth András Dániel, Godena-Juhász Attila 8/9
Wild Horse Nine – Eimer Ní Mhaoldomhnaigh 3/29
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Dune: Part Three 3/29 4/14
Ebenezer 3/29 4/14 4/14
The Odyssey 3/29 4/14
Werwulf 10/11 10/11
Wicker 8/9 8/16
La Bola Negra 9/20
The Bride! 3/29
Clayface 3/29
Digger 3/29
Disclosure Day 3/29
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth 3/29
The Social Reckoning 3/29
The Uprising 7/26
Wild Horse Nine 3/29
Best Sound
Behemoth! 3/29 10/11
Disclosure Day 3/29 5/18
Dune: Part Three 3/29 4/14
The Odyssey 3/29 4/14 4/14
Project Hail Mary 3/29 4/14
Digger 3/29
Fatherland 3/29
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth 3/29
Ink 3/29
Klara and the Sun 3/29
The Mandalorian & Grogu 3/29
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 3/29
Supergirl 3/29
Toy Story 5 3/29
Tuner 3/29
Werwulf 10/11
Wild Horse Nine 3/29
Wildwood 10/11
Best Visual Effects
Disclosure Day 3/29 4/14 4/14
Dune: Part Three 3/29 4/14
The Odyssey 3/29 4/14
Project Hail Mary 3/29 4/14
Wildwood 3/29 10/11
Avengers: Doomsday 3/29
Clayface 3/29
Godzilla Minus Zero 3/29
The Mandalorian & Grogu 3/29
Moana 3/29
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 3/29
Supergirl 3/29
Best International Feature Film
No predictions made yet.
Best Documentary Feature
No predictions made yet.
Best Documentary Short Subject
No predictions made yet.
Best Animated Short Film
No predictions made yet.
Best Live Action Short Film
No predictions made yet.
NEW: APRIL 15, 2026
I’m sure there are a lot of films we’ve yet to hear about that will make a play for Oscar nominations. For now, based on historical information, these are what my initial prediction thoughts are.
UPDATED: MAY 19, 2026
With Narnia moving to 2027 and Michael a critical flop, there are a handful of changes made to these predictions but not many at this juncture.
UPDATED: JUNE 17, 2026
Another batch with few changes. I’ve shifted my thoughts on Spielberg’s Disclosure Day now that it’s release. The box office wasn’t as good as it should have been and critics were largely appreciative but it’s hardly one of the year’s most acclaimed films. It will still probably contend in several categories but I doubt it will be the double-digit tally I once thought. I’ve also added Fjord to the batch.
UPDATED: JULY 20, 2026
The closer we get, the more things clarify and with the first trailer for Digger out, a lot of things become more obvious so most of this month’s changes are related to a shift in momentum for that film. Otherwise, a lot of things largely stayed the same.
UPDATED: AUGUST 16, 2026
Added three films to the roster this month, Animals, The Uprising, and Wicker. Other than that, there aren’t any major changes to the current prediction set.
UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 20, 2026
Toronto’s in the rearview mirror and although I’m not 100% settled on my changes this month, I must say they are beginning to take shape with solidification on the not-too-distant horizon. I Play Rocky was on my list before but it’s now moved into a position of contention whereas La Bola Negra surprising with the audience award at Toronto, it moves into my list with force. Being Heumann came in third and could still be a player as Sian Heder’s prior film was but I’m less assured on her chances. The word of mouth surrounding Misty Green put Chris Rock’s film on the map. The film’s sliding after these changes include Disclosure Day, Tuner, Clarissa, Sense and Sensibility, and The Uprising.
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