December 2-4, 2011

Shame

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan have been receiving strong praise for their performances in this film. While the film isn’t likely to see the Oscars otherwise, I expect both Fassbender and Mulligan to be contenders in the next couple of months, at least for nominations.”
Oscar Results: In spite of the buzz and precursor attention, the film was utterly ignored by the Academy. Was it the NC-17 rating or that they didn’t like the movie. I’m leaning towards the NC-17 rating as the reason, but I wouldn’t put it past Academy voters not to have much taste.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Those curious about the NC-17 rating will be drawn to the picture while Oscar-based enthusiasm will give it an extra boost, but don’t expect too much.”
Box Office Results: $3.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] When I made my initial prediction, I had forgotten that it was rated NC-17. Still, for that kind of rating a total like this isn’t too bad.

Sleeping Beauty

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The dark subject matter will be overshadowed by this weekend’s other sexual drama Shame, so too would I imagine the film’s fate with Oscar voters.”
Oscar Results: Overshadowed isn’t exactly the word I’d use. I’d say underexposed.
Box Office Prediction: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It doesn’t have the buzz of Shame, so look for a much lower outcome.”
Box Office Results: $36.5 K
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It would be an awful total if it weren’t a little-talked-about indie film.

December 9-11, 2011

New Year’s Eve

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Garry Marshall hasn’t been an Oscar figure in over 20 years (and then only marginally). I don’t expect a film that looks so similar to his previous all-star romantic comedy Valentine’s Day to suddenly change the course for him.”
Oscar Results: Not only did it not have any Oscar movement, the critics were exceptionally savage on it.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Its forebear was a surprise hit and I expect with the holiday season goosing its numbers, it should have no problem surpassing Valentine’s Day.”
Box Office Results: $54.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Ensemble romantic dramedies aren’t a box office draw and not even the success of Valentine’s Day could bolster this film. This total isn’t chump change for the genre, but expectations should have gotten it higher.

The Sitter

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It will be overshadowed by the weekend’s other crowd-pleaser, leading this film to suffer a similar fate to all the late-year R-rated comedies that have failed to ignite box office fires.”
Box Office Results: $30.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] I’m not in the least bit surprised that this newly-minted Oscar nominee couldn’t open a film. Not only did it not open well, but this Adventures in Babysitting knock-off finished far below expectations.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Although the film is set up as a conventional spy thriller, the production has earned strong notices when mounted in the past, including various awards nominations. There is talk building around Gary Oldman receiving a career achievement nomination, breaking the long dry spell he’s suffered through with the Academy. Likewise, the film, helmed by Let the Right One In’s Tomas Alfredson could compete in multiple categories if the competition this year is light. Otherwise, look for Oldman’s name to be bandied about heavily through most of Oscar season.”
Oscar Results: With a little extra time and buzz room, this could have been a Best Picture nominee like it was at the BAFTA’s. Still, it wasn’t a shabby Oscar nomination haul at all even if it did go home empty handed.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “With good word of mouth, a well recognized lead and its espionage thriller elements, the film should prove to be a solid hit.”
Box Office Results: $24.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I over-predicted the film, but this total for a cerebral, slow-moving spy thriller isn’t entirely unexpected.

W./E.

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Madonna’s directorial debut has gotten a drubbing from critics who’ve seen it. Don’t count on this film to be in Oscar’s playbook.”
Oscar Results: And yet, the Costume Designers Guild managed to push it forward and ultimately nab it an Oscar nomination against all expectations. It just goes to show that even the Academy will recognize crap if it’s pretty enough.
Box Office Prediction: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Those curious to take in Madonna’s film will give it an initial burst of energy, but the bad word of mouth with cause that sensation to quickly fade.”
Box Office Results: $583.5 K
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Madonna’s name should have given it bigger cachet than this. It didn’t. The genre and Oscar nomination should have meant a higher total. They didn’t. So, really who knows why it didn’t do that well.

We Need to Talk About Kevin

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Buzz surrounding Tilda Swinton’s performance is strong and the film might pick up a screenwriting nomination; however, this could be another in a long line of Swinton films that the Academy never gives a second thought to.”
Oscar Results: It wasn’t meant to be. In spite of several prominent prizes, Swinton failed to pull out an Oscar nomination even though a lot of prognosticators felt she deserved one. It’s a bit surprising, but her absence makes the film’s complete shut-out understandable.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Based on Tilda Swinton track record, I wouldn’t expect much from this film at the box office, though a handful of end-of-year critics awards could turn give it a nice underdog vibe.”
Box Office Results: $1.7 M (still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Without the Oscar nomination, this isn’t a bad total. And Swinton’s films haven’t exactly been box office magnets, especially those with such difficult subjects.

Young Adult

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Like Stephen Daldry, Jason Reitman has been doing good business with the Academy. However, his vanity may be hurting him with Oscar voters. His screenplay for Up in the Air, which dominated critics groups fizzled at the Oscars. Still, the buzz is still good so far and Charlize Theron is in the hunt for Best Actress.”
Oscar Results: And Reitman is down for the count. His film was ignored by the Oscars and because of the large raft of potential Best Acterss contenders, even the well received performance from Theron couldn’t overcome the film’s lack of Oscar support. Some might suggest that Reitman’s ego soured a lot of people in Hollywood and with his young age and string of success, there may have been some jealousy involved. I’m not sold on that idea, but box office may have something to do with it.
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “His last two films have been box office successes, so look for that streak to continue with alongside Juno scribe Diablo Cody.”
Box Office Results: $16.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This is Reitman’s first outright flop. While his films haven’t exactly been major box office hits, at least they were modest ones. This one didn’t do well at all and for what reason, I’m not exactly sure.

December 16-18, 2011

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

Box Office Prediction: $220 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Both prior films have made just between $215 M and $220 M, so with box office ticket prices on the increase, I expect it to slightly outdo its predecessors.”
Box Office Results: $132.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] How is $130 million considered a flop? If you have predecessors that made north of $215 million, that’s when. The reason so many sequels were greenlighted is because of the success of the first two films. This third one was expected to do equal business, but failed to muster up support. Has the fanbase dried up or was it just not as “good” as the previous two. I think a combination of both.

Carnage

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Roman Polanski has had a surge in popularity with the Academy in recent years, but buzz hasn’t built around the film as I had expected it to. Strong notices from critics and a nice box office total might re-launch it into the campaign.”
Oscar Results: Polanski’s reputation may have hurt the film, but critics seemed to be mixed on it and that doesn’t give the film much chance. The precursors weren’t even supportive.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unless the film is an Oscar magnet, which is looking less likely by the day, the film will likely end up on the low side of modern Polanski films.”
Box Office Results: $2.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Polanski has never been a box office draw, at least not since the 1970’s. And now his efforts have fallen to a low most frequently reserved for new, niche directors. Critics not loving it probably impacted its potential and this result, while not bad all things considered, isn’t what it probably should have been.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The first film did solidly with the Academy, which means the sequel may as well, though too much of the same won’t help it. Look for consideration in Original Score, Art Direction, Costume Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.”
Oscar Results: Lightning did not strike twice. The Academy turned its back on the glossy box office smash and decided not to renew its prior investment.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The first film was a big hit, but this time Sherlock and friends have an originality hurdle to overcome as well as an over-stuffed box office to contend with. It will still do quite well based on goodwill from the first film, but anything above $200 million at this point would look like a miracle.”
Box Office Results: $186.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Underperforming the first film isn’t great, but the total is still quite impressive. And with so many other releases from the period doing far below expectations, something like this looks more impressive.

December 21-23, 2011

The Adventures of Tintin

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Steven Spielberg and Peter Jackson have an embarrassing number of Oscars and nominations to their credits, so this one should pick up a handful, but with Spielberg’s War Horse in play, Tintin may be limited to Animated Feature and a few tech categories.”
Oscar Results: Spielberg’s star has faded…either that or the Academy’s animation department continues to snub its nose at motion capture animation. To all extents, Tintin should have at least been nominated there instead of elsewhere at the Oscars, but it was left high and dry in favor of two less-enthusiastically-received animated features from DreamWorks.
Box Office Prediction: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Just give the people the name Steven Spielberg and you’re likely to have a hit. Grossing north of $200 million is not uncommon for Spielberg and most of his box office friendly films have done at least that. So, look for some quite high totals even if most American audiences don’t know who Tintin is.”
Box Office Results: $77.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] For an animated film revolving around a character not many in the United States had heard of, this result isn’t bad. But Spielberg’s name should have done more to propel it much higher. Has Spielberg lost his touch? Perhaps. It’s too early to tell, though.

The Darkest Hour

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “With little to no advertising so far and launching at a time when families are more strongly represented at the cineplex, I don’t think the film will do much business.”
Box Office Results: $21.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Considering the limited advertising push, this result feels quite appropriate for this genre.

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Stephen Daldry’s record is unimpeachable and the emotional nature of the film will likely appeal to Oscar voters. While critics may or may not love it, a solid box office performance will undeniably help.”
Oscar Results: Daldry didn’t manage a Best Director nomination, but he still pulled off an acting nomination and a Best Picture nomination, further making his streak look rather impressive. This was all achieved in spite of very mixed-to-negative reviews for the film.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “There is no reason to believe that this 9/11-based film will sell to American audiences who have rejected most films on the subject, but Stephen Daldry appeals to a wide audience in ways his box office numbers belie. Look for it to perform slightly above his prior films’ totals, but not far unless it becomes a breakout hit.”
Box Office Results: $31.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The country still isn’t ready for a 9/11-based film, especially one that critics won’t embrace. And with a Best Picture nomination under its belt, this total still seems a bit anemic.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “David Fincher has gone from Oscar pariah to Oscar mainstay with his last two films earning Best Picture nominations. Good will from his loss for The Social Network can be paired with strong critic’s notices to catapult it into contention, but critics must fall in love with it as audiences are already pre-inclined to do so.”
Oscar Results: Fincher’s film didn’t quite gain the recognition I would have expected, but it took home an Oscar for Best Editing among five total nominations, so the film did well either way.
Box Office Prediction: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “All of his films have finished over $40 million at the box office and four of David Fincher’s features have come close to or surpassed the $100 M mark. Mix in those statistics with a rabid fanbase for the source novel and you have a potential hit on your hands.”
Box Office Results: $102.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Despite the pedigree of the source material, audiences just weren’t that excited about the franchise. Still, Fincher’s longstanding box office prowess continues with his fifth $100 million-plus finish even if only barely.

In the Land of Blood and Honey

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Angelina Jolie’s directorial debut is supposed to be rather impressive and buzz is starting to build for lead actress Zana Marjanovic, but the Best Actress field is heavily dominated by prominent names this year, so a nomination is longshot at this point.”
Oscar Results: Jolie’s film received only mixed reviews and no one could unify behind a category it deserved to be recognized in…but even the slight buzz Marjanovic received faded quickly and the film dropped off the radar entirely.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “In a sea of family-friendly films and unknown critical appeal, a simple total may be the best result it can hope for. The numbers will probably double if it earns an Oscar nomination.”
Box Office Results: $30.8 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Even for an indie, foreign-set drama, this total is embarrassing. You have a well known actress at the helm, giving you just a touch of cachet, but even that couldn’t help the film.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Outside of a few technical categories (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects), the film has no chance and even those categories don’t seem to be leaning in the film’s direction.”
Oscar Results: While the tech categories seemed its best bet, the film was completely shut out of Oscar consideration even though it was better than a few films that were nominated.
Box Office Prediction: $140 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It’s been five years since the last Mission: Impossible film and that last long break may have been what doomed the third chapter to smaller numbers. Still, it should still do adequately well, though the intense amount of competition at the box office may strangle some of those prospects.”
Box Office Results: $209.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Bringing the franchise to new heights, Pixar graduate Brad Bird convinced everyone that he knew how to direct high octane live-action films while keeping the story tight and exciting.

War Horse

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Steven Spielberg’s latest war-set film is based on a prize winning novel with an already Tony-winning stage adaptation out there. When you deal with material this emotionally charged, there’s no way you cannot consider it a major player this year.”
Oscar Results: Spielberg still has it in him, but not by much. His young-readers’ war film nabbed six Oscar nominations including Best Picture, but went home emptyhanded. No one was even sure it would snag the Best Picture nomination as its low box office and meager reception from critics seemed to drown its chances.
Box Office Prediction: $180 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Two Spielberg film’s releasing on the same weekend? How exactly can a director cannibalize his own features. Can both be a success? Only Spielberg could do it and I expect that to happen. While The Adventures of Tintin will build on family audiences to succeed, the Oscar potential for War Horse will boost its numbers.”
Box Office Results: $79.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] There was a time when Spielberg commanded big box office dollars for his films, but that time may have passed as his extremely accessible war drama made less than half what I would have expected considering its release window and advertising campaign.

We Bought a Zoo

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unless its a critical and box office smash, the film is likely to be ignored.”
Oscar Results: The film was indeed ignored, largely in part because critics were apathetic about it.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “A film that’s likely to get lost in the holiday shuffle, Matt Damon’s family film doesn’t have the appeal of Tintin, Mission: Impossible or War Horse, but enough overflow from crowded houses may give it a nice tally.”
Box Office Results: $75.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For a film that had mediocre reviews and no prospects to top Spielberg’s film, the film not only managed to come close, but did quite well all things considered. A family drama over Christmas could have done better, but this seems like a fair result.

December 28-30, 2011

The Iron Lady

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Meryl Streep is earning buzz for her performance and is very likely to be nominated. A win, however, is slowly slipping from her grip.”
Oscar Results: Even until the winner was announced on Oscar night, most prognosticators thought Streep would lose out again to Viola Davis, but with no overzealous beauty to beat her to the punch, Streep managed her third career Oscar silencing a lot of her fans who had chastised the Academy for not giving her more.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Margaret Thatcher isn’t exactly a figure that boosts American fervor. And being long removed from politics, those who go see the film outside of the Anglophile core will be those who want to see Meryl Streep in action. A certain Oscar nomination will increase the film’s potential but the historical nature of the film will depress attendance.”
Box Office Results: $30.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Streep isn’t much of a box office draw and the film was a bit dry for most audiences, so this total seems fitting for the situation.

Pariah

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Focus Features is pushing the film, but with no recognizable names associated with the film, a lot of critics will have to boost the film’s chances for it to come close to Oscar consideration.”
Oscar Results: Focus Features has faded in its Oscar presence in recent years never knowing quite how to compete with the likes of Harvein Weinstein and scott Rudin. This film looked dead in the water before it came out, but there was still minor buzz and they pushed it, just not sufficiently.
Box Office Prediction: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “This little buzzed-about Sundance entry isn’t going to pick up the attention it needs to score more than a curiosity-based minor total.”
Box Office Results: $769.5 K
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Limited precursor attention. No Oscar glory. For an indie drama, this isn’t awful, but it ain’t great either.

A Separation

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It has potential in the Foreign Language Film category where it represents Iran. The subject tends to favor its acceptance by Academy voters if it can bypass any number of other similarly-themed films from more notable directors.”
Oscar Results: Not only did the film crack the Foreign Language Film category, it picked up a nomination for screenwriting. My later predictions included that possibility, but at the time, the question was whether the Iranian film would transcend national differences with Israel. Israel’s entry was also nominated, that my have been the consolation.
Box Office Prediction: $750 K
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Foreign language films just don’t pique the curiosity of American audiences the way they used to. Don’t count on this film to do more than Oscar-embellished business. That is IF it’s nominated, a bit if at this juncture.”
Box Office Results: $7.1 M (still in limited release)
Thoughts: [Success] With its Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film in hand, along with a boatload of other critics prizes, the film did quite well at the box office for a foreign language feature.