April 1-3, 2011

Hop

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $95 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. The trailers have given very little information to form much of an opinion, though live action/animation combinations are seldom worthwhile.”
Box Office Results: $108.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Expectations were easily met for this film. It was an Easter box office success.

Insidious

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. I haven’t seen a trailer for it yet, but a cast like that in a horror flick could be fun.”
Box Office Results: $53.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] Horror films doing in the $50 million range are expected these days, so this one performed right where it needed to.

Source Code

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Depending on the film’s popularity, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing could be possible.”
Oscar Results: The limited box office may counteract the strong critical reaction to the film and keep it out of major top tier contention, though some tech categories could have potential still.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. It’s not an original concept, but it looks to be entertaining enough for a good time.”
Box Office Results: $54.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While Gyllenhaal is a recognizable face, he’s not necessarily a box office draw. The advertising campaign was too mysterious and the film, although highly successful with critics only eked out a minor victory at the box office.

Super

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. Rainn Wilson hasn’t proven to be a box office draw and I expect this comedy to fail to catch on.”
Box Office Results: $324.1 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Even for an indie flick, this performance is dismal. Perhaps advertising is to blame.

April 8-10, 2011

Arthur

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. The original didn’t need to be remade. Neither Russell Brand nor Jennifer Garner are worthy to fill the roles in this film.”
Box Office Results: $33.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A lot of people had high hopes for this reboot, but even the acerbic Russell Brand couldn’t draw audiences to the theater.

Hanna

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Oscar Results: While the film won’t compete in high level categories, Sound Editing and Original Score should be slam dunks, but knowing the Academy, they won’t be.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. A smart cast and a mysterious concept could make things interesting.”
Box Office Results: $40.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] With no major stars to boast of (Cate Blanchett is known, but not a box office notable), this performance is solid. If more indie films did this kind of business, maybe we’d get more of them.

Your Highness

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. A humorous cast could make this rather limited concept work.”
Box Office Results: $21.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The stoner comedy was apparently not as funny as it needed to be and no one seemed to care about the big names attached.

April 15-17, 2011

Rio

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Even money-grubbing animation has a chance at an Oscar nomination.”
Oscar Results: With the recent critical collapse of Cars 2, there’s a possibility of an open slot in Animated Feature (though, Cars could still get nominated). Rio could benefit being one of the higher grossing animated series this year, though it may still need a 4- or 5-film slate to getin.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. A couple of funny segments do not a great movie make. This is mostly an attempt to pull the hard-earned dollars out of parents’ pockets and little more.”
Box Office Results: $141.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] Despite some lukewarm reviews and the overly-kidly feel of the film, it still managed a satisfactory gross.

Scream 4

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $115 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. I’ve enjoyed the three prior films, so I should enjoy this fourth one.”
Box Office Results: $38.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] You can’t recapture the magic. Even though I liked it well enough, a lot of audiences did not, which led to a soft opening and an ultimately disappointing final tally. Whether the intended fifth film will still get made and build on the fourth remains to be seen.

April 22-24, 2011

African Cats

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. It looks cute and more appealing than Disney’s second Earth Day feature last year.”
Box Office Results: $15.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] DisneyNature doesn’t seem to have a green thumb when it comes to the box office.

Born to Be a Star

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. I can’t help but find the idea humorous and with Christina Ricci and Stephen Dorff in the actors’ seats, it should at least be entertaining.”
Box Office Results: N/A (Release date changed)

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. I haven’t had a desire to see any of the Madea films and I doubt that will change.”
Box Office Results: $53.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For a Tyler Perry film, this was something of a disappointment. The prior two films Madea films grossed $63 million and $90 million respectively. Though this is on the high end of Perry’s box office totals, it’s somewhat weak compared to the other Madeas.

Water for Elephants

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It all depends on how good the film is. With an April release, it may well have little hope, but at least a few design tech nominations might be possible.”
Oscar Results: It wasn’t a box office overachiever and critics were mildly supportive, so the best it can hope for now is a handful of creative nominations in fields like Art Direction and Costume Design.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. It doesn’t look too awful, but I’m not sure how good it will be as the trailer could be misleading.”
Box Office Results: $58.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Well within my expectations, the chances for success should have been greater. But it has proven that outside of Twilight, its actors are not box office draws.

April 29-May 1, 2011

Fast Five

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $105 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. I have had no desire to watch any of the prior films, so I won’t start now.”
Box Office Results: $208.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] This one completely blew my expectations, nearly doubling my own prediction. There is no question that this franchise is the cash cow that keeps on giving.

Prom

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. The pseudo-reality conceit is wearing thin.”
Box Office Results: $10.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Even Disney can’t polish every turd and make tweens go to the theaters. Either that or the Mouse House is losing its whiskers.

What’s Your Number

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. Chris Evans and Anna Faris would be an interesting pairing, but the idea just doesn’t have a lot of promise.”
Box Office Results: N/A (Release date changed)