Let’s take a look back at how I foresaw February and how it actually turned out.

FEBRUARY 4-6, 2011

The Roommate

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. Single White Female in a college setting. What a lame prospect.”
Box Office Results: $37.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Horror has its ups and downs and this was definitely one of its downs.

Sanctum

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. It has better prospects than The Roommate, but won’t find as a strong a foothold with audiences.”
Box Office Results: $23.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Despite not feeling it had a lot of chances to begin with, the film still managed to fail to find a crowd. Had this not competed with Roommate, either or both films could have done better.

Frankie and Alice

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Halle Berry got a minor amount of buzz for this performance, but contention never materialized.”
Oscar Results: No change in information as it’s not eligible for 2011.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. I have not seen a trailer for the film yet, so I have no expectations.”
Box Office Results: $10.7 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Trailers weren’t readily available. The advertising push wasn’t there. That ti made just over ten thousand says everything.

FEBRUARY 11-13, 2011

The Eagle

Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. Not a terribly original story, but it could be an interesting waste of a couple of hours.”
Box Office Results: $19.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] A colossal dud if there ever was one. Significant hype and period adventure should have brought the anticipated demo to the theater. It didn’t.

Gomeo and Juliet

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Animated Feature is always a possibility depending on resultant quality and popularity.”
Oscar Results: It wasn’t a film that people were avidly discussing afterwards, which means it will probably be a popular hit that didn’t get invited to the Oscars.
Box Office Prediction: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. It’s going to be another one of those computer animated films that will be amusing, but not terribly great.”
Box Office Results: $99.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] I took a lot of flack for my high prediction for this film and I turned out to be justified. Not only is it the Weinsteins’ biggest animated blockbuster to date, it’s also one of their best performances at the box office for any film.

Just Go With It

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. Another lame Adam Sandler romantic comedy. No thanks.”
Box Office Results: $102.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] Sandler was back. Maybe not at the level he used to be, but there’s no denying this $100+ million fillm has energized his asking price.

Justin Bieber: Never Say Never

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. In terms of quality, I have no doubt it will be something I don’t want to see. Though, if this one turns out like the ones for Hannah Montana and the Jonas Brothers, Bieber’s career might not survive.”
Box Office Results: $73.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] It may not have pulled the numbers that Miley Cyrus did, but this was a sizable hit for Bieber. More will likely be on the way.

FEBRUARY 18-20, 2011

Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. I didn’t want to see the first film or its sequel. I definitely don’t want to see this new one.”
Box Office Results: $37.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] I hadn’t expected it to do smashingly and it didn’t, but I also didn’t expect it to tank this badly.

I Am Number Four

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. The movie looks like a fairly typical sci-fantasy film, but it could at least be entertaining.”
Box Office Results: $54.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While not as robust as I predicted, it still made average money. It did deserve to make more and should have.

Unknown

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. While the appeal of a mystery thriller is strong, the execution doesn’t seem promising.”
Box Office Results: $63.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The advertising campaign seemed to turn heavily towards the end and the film managed a decent showing. Liam Neeson is going to continue to get these marginal films to sell to audiences.

I Am

Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. Just watching the trailer makes me cringe.”
Box Office Results: $998.3 K
Thoughts: [Flop] It made nearly half of what I expected it too, but $1 million isn’t a very good result.

FEBRUARY 25-27, 2011

Drive Angry

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. What could be worse than one lame Nic Cage movie in the first quarter of the year? How about two.”
Box Office Results: $10.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Nic Cage has taken paycheck after paycheck and hasn’t delivered a bona fide hit in some time. Is it Cage himself or the material? I lean towards the material, but that’s also Cage’s fault for making the poor choices.

Hall Pass

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “None. A buddy movie with no rules. It’s like an Adam Sandler clone with a bit more raunchiness.”
Box Office Results: $45.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It certainly surpassed my expectations and while it wasn’t exactly a blockbuster, everything considered, it was a hit.

Of Gods and Men

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Major Contender. This is one of the films that’s like to pop up on this past year’s Foreign Language Film list and could very well compete for the prize.”
Oscar Results: It could still show up at next year’s Oscars, though the box office totals aren’t very inspiring.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “High. You can’t be a major Oscar contender and have strong support from critics and not have the potential to be great.”
Box Office Results: $3.6 M (still playing)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] This film is still playing in limited release, so there isn’t much more to say about its box office performance, though after this many months, it should have had a higher total by now.